095
FXUS66 KOTX 262053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
153 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic breezy winds with seasonably normal temperatures
  Sunday through Wednesday. Elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions Tuesday for central WA.

- Above normal temperatures return by Thursday with highs in the
  90s.

- Critical Fire Weather expected for portions of the Inland
  Northwest Saturday August 1.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds will linger through Wednesday across Central
Washington, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions. Temperatures will stay cool to near seasonal
normals in the 80s. Above normal temperatures return later next
week in the 90s with continued dry conditions. Monitoring
Saturday for a dry cold front passage of similar magnitude to
yesterday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Wednesday: Dry and breezy conditions continue today
through Wednesday as the overall pattern remains steady.
Temperatures will remain near normal to slightly below normal in the
80s to low 90s. Tuesday looks to have the best potential for locally
critical fire weather conditions on the Waterville Plateau, Upper
Columbia Basin, and the southwestern portion of the Colville
Reservation. A shortwave trough will brush through Vancouver Island
and eject northeast towards central Alberta. A dry cold front will
brush through central Washington and far northeast Washington
Tuesday afternoon and evening bringing west/southwest winds around
10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph with relative humidities around 20-
30 percent. A Fire Weather Watch was considered for portions of
central Washington Tuesday but confidence was too low in relative
humidity and wind speeds hitting critical levels. There is a small
chance (15%) of a shower at the Cascade crest Tuesday but no rain
expected elsewhere. A more robust shortwave trough Thursday will
migrate through northwest Oregon through southeast Washington
bringing a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms to southeast Washington and
the southern Idaho Panhandle in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Sunday: Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
bounce back above normal in the high 80s to high 90s as high
pressure strengthens in the desert southwest. Changes come Saturday
as a dry cold front passage is set to occur through the day.
Deterministic GFS and ECMWF guidance this morning have an upper
level jet actually slightly stronger than yesterday around 110-120
kt. All of the ensemble clusters indicate at least a 95th
percentile upper level jet moving through the region. There is a
40-80% chance of winds gusting 40+ MPH through the Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau. This period will be very closely
watched over the next several days for elevated to critical fire
weather conditions. There is still decent ensemble spread for
the pressure gradients across the region. Next Sunday looks
cooler after the front passage with temperatures in the upper
70s to upper 80s. /Butler

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Winds Sunday afternoon
in the Columbia Basin and Spokane area will peak around 10 kt.
Winds will relax below 10 kt this evening except Wenatchee where
Cascade gap winds will continue into the overnight hours. Smoke
impacts are uncertain but KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KLWS-KPUW are in a
favorable area for local and regional wildfire smoke to reduce
visibilities especially overnight into Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence
in smoke reducing visibility at the TAF sites. This is the most
impactful alternate scenario. Should smoke reduce visibilities,
amendments will be issued.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        56  87  57  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  57  86  58  86  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        51  84  51  83  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       62  92  61  91  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       51  86  52  86  50  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      53  84  54  84  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        55  83  55  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  89  57  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      63  89  63  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           60  90  59  90  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Monday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan
     County-Western Okanogan County.
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$