069
FXUS66 KOTX 080455
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and drier conditions will continue through Saturday, with a
weak system sliding through Sunday for a small chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Gradual cooling is expected next week along
with a return to breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday Night: An upper ridge will remain over the
region into Saturday for continued warm and dry weather. The
warmth looks to peak on Saturday, with high temperatures for most
locations in the 80s, which is around 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year. On Sunday the ridge weakens as a splitting and
weak upper level trough swing through. While this feature is
weak, it will help draw up increased moisture as precipitable
water increases to 130-160% of normal, with surface based CAPE
increasing to 200-700 J/KG (highest along the East Slopes of the
Cascades and down around the Blue Mountains). The latest NBM
paints around a 20% chance of thunderstorms in these areas, and
around a 10% chance elsewhere. At this time impacts from
thunderstorms are expected to be minor (small hail, brief
downpours, infrequent lightning, and possible thunderstorm outflow
enhanced wind gusts). JW

Monday through Friday: Generally dry forecast Monday through
Thursday. A brief return of shortwave ridging Monday with height
falls allowing transition to a flat zonal allow peak temperatures
Monday to be followed up with a gradual cooling trend Tuesday
through Thursday. Disturbances either overtopping the brief
shortwave ridging or moving through the flat zonal may allow for
breezy conditions with low relative humidity in the daytime which
could elevate fire weather concerns. Thursday night into Friday
there is potential for an upper level trof to drop down from the
northwest and further lower upper level heights which will allow the
cooling trend to continue as well as allow for some minor mention of
possible spotty showers and thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote VFR conditions through at
least Saturday Night. Winds for most of the region will be out of
the north at speeds less than 10 kts. One exception is down the
Okanogan Valley where north winds will gusts to around 20 kts
through Saturday morning. With the incoming system, the region can
expect increasing mid to high level clouds Saturday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through at least
Saturday Night.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  83  56  80  55  83 /   0   0   0  10  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  80  53  77  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        50  80  54  76  53  77 /   0   0   0  10  20   0
Lewiston       57  89  61  83  60  86 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Colville       43  83  50  81  50  83 /   0   0   0  10  30  10
Sandpoint      44  77  50  76  53  75 /   0   0   0   0  30  10
Kellogg        52  79  55  76  56  75 /   0   0   0  10  30  10
Moses Lake     53  90  58  84  56  88 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee      59  88  64  83  59  85 /   0   0   0  20   0   0
Omak           53  89  59  84  54  88 /   0   0   0  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$