459
FXUS66 KOTX 151938
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1238 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 15-35 percent chance of sprinkles/very light showers
  continues through Tuesday evening across Northeast WA and
  North ID.

- A 30-70 percent chance of showers moves over Southeast WA and
  the Central ID Panhandle Thursday night into Friday. These
  showers will be accompanied by a 20 percent chance for
  thunderstorms.

- Warmer temperatures Wednesday through Monday with afternoon
  highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty shower chances continue into Tuesday evening as a mid-
level wave tracks southward through the region. Wednesday will
be dry, then shower and thunderstorm chances return to the
forecast over Southeast WA and the Central ID Panhandle Thursday
evening into Friday. Afternoon temperatures will be warm
Wednesday through Monday with highs in the 70s to low 80s, and
overnight lows will fall into the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday evening: Spotty light rain will continue over Northeast
WA and North ID as a mid- level wave tracks southward toward
Northern California. While weak radar echoes can be seen over
much of the region, measurable precip is mainly being observed
over areas of higher terrain with surface observations
indicating dry conditions elsewhere. So far precip has been
light with this wave as expected. Observed precip amounts over
the North Cascades and other areas of higher terrain along the
Canadian border range from a couple hundredths of an inch to
just over a tenth of an inch as of 12PM PDT. There is one
exception - an observation site on the north end of the
Sinlahekin fire perimeter - that has received over a quarter of
an inch of rain with isolated heavier showers right along and
north of the Canadian border.

Wednesday through Monday: By Wednesday the mid-level wave forms
a closed low and moves south of the region, settling over
Northern California. Meanwhile, higher heights nudge in over
Eastern WA and North ID, prompting a warming and drying trend.
The dry weather will be briefly interrupted Thursday evening
into Friday as the low wobbles back to the north, then tracks
northeastward toward Montana, bringing a 30-70 percent chance
of showers and a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms over
Southeast WA and the Central ID Panhandle. Heading into the
weekend and early next week, the low exits the area to the east,
and ridging develops across the region favoring continued warm
and dry conditions. Afternoon highs Wednesday through Monday
will range from the 70s to low 80s, and overnight lows will
fall into the 40s to low 50s. Overall, weather through early
next week will be typical of mid- September with minimal
impacts expected. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions are forecast through the 24-hour
period with widespread BKN/OVC mid and high level clouds. Winds
will generally be light with speeds less than 10kts. A 20-50
percent chance for light rain/sprinkles will persist across the
northern 2/3 of WA and the northern ID Panhandle through the
late morning and early afternoon. KEAT has seen a few sprinkles
already this morning and will continue to have the best chance
for rain out of all of the TAF sites, but the precip is so
light that confidence is low on anything measurable falling.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through the period. Low confidence in precip
impacting any TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        46  74  48  79  52  76 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  73  46  77  49  74 /  30  10   0   0  10   0
Pullman        44  75  46  74  48  73 /  10  10   0  10  50  10
Lewiston       51  79  53  79  55  79 /  10  10   0  10  60  10
Colville       42  76  41  82  45  80 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      46  71  41  78  45  74 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        44  72  45  78  50  71 /  10  10   0   0  40  20
Moses Lake     47  77  46  80  49  78 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  75  51  80  55  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  77  48  81  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$