893
FXUS66 KOTX 260005
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
505 PM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon and
  evening due to winds and low relative humidity. Any new or
  ongoing wildfires will be capable of spreading rapidly.

- Periodic breezy winds with seasonably normal temperatures
  Sunday through Wednesday. Elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions Tuesday for central WA.

- Above normal temperatures return by Thursday with highs in the
  90s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Low relative humidity and gusty winds Saturday will result in
critical fire weather conditions, while wildfire smoke from regional
fires will continue to bring hazy skies. Breezy winds will linger
into Sunday through Wednesday across Central Washington with
temperatures cooling to near seasonal normals in the 80s.
Above normal temperatures return later next week in the 90s with
continued dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...Strong winds leading to critical fire weather conditions
Saturday afternoon and evening...

Today and tonight: Fire weather concerns will be maximized this
afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough and dry cold front
sweeps through the Pacific Northwest. A 99th percentile (around
110 kt) upper level jet will be centered over north central
Oregon to northeast Washington, setting the stage for
unseasonably strong lee cyclogenesis in far southwest Alberta
this afternoon. Mean sea level pressures will be around the 3rd
to 5th percentile range for this time of year in southern BC and
southwest Alberta around 1000-1003 mb. This, along with higher
pressure (1014-1016 mb) nosing into northwest Oregon and
southwest Washington this afternoon will increase pressure
gradients from southwest to northeast. The lower level response
will be impressive as well with 700 mb winds around 30-50 kt and
850 mb winds around 25-35 kt (both solidly in the 99th
percentile for this time of year). At the surface, much of the
region can expect to see sustained southwest winds 15-30 mph
with gusts around 25-45 mph this afternoon through this evening.
The areas of main concern for rapidly spreading fires will be
the Columbia Basin, Waterville Plateau, Okanogan Valley, and the
West Plains where there is a 60-95 percent chance of wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph. Wind gusts peak around the 2-8 PM timeframe
today. Wildfire smoke will be fairly extensive this afternoon as
the Little Giant Fire in Chelan County spreads smoke towards
the Okanogan Valley, Highlands, and northern mountains. HRRR
smoke runs also show plentiful mid to upper level smoke moving
into eastern Washington and north Idaho. Wind speeds will slowly
decrease into the overnight hours as the boundary layer
decouples but the midslopes and ridge tops of Selkirks and
Cabinet/Purcell Mountains will remain quite windy gusting up to
35 mph. There is a 10-20% chance of a light shower at the
Cascade crest this evening. Rain amounts would be very light
around a trace to 0.03 inches.

Sunday and Monday: The overall pattern Sunday and Monday are
fairly steady with longwave troughing continuing just offshore
west-central British Columbia and strong high pressure centered
over New Mexico. The Inland Northwest will stay in between the 2
systems, maximizing the thermal gradient aloft, which favors
breezy conditions to continue. Fire weather conditions will be
elevated to locally critical Sunday and Monday across portions
of central and eastern Washington with south/southwest winds
around 10-20 mph with gusts around 20-30 mph. The main area of
concern will be the Okanogan Valley as diurnal upslope flow
towards Canada will add onto the general winds. Any new or
existing wildfires will be capable of rapid spread, especially
the Okanogan Valley Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday: Fire weather concerns ramp back up Tuesday as models
indicate a shortwave trough will sweep through Vancouver Island
through south-central British Columbia. This will bring another
dry cold front passage through the region. Central and Eastern
Washington will be at most risk with southwest winds around
15-25 mph with wind gusts around 20-35 mph. Relative humidity
will remain low around 15-25 percent Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Wednesday through Saturday: Temperatures will start to trend
upward towards the second half of next week as the southwestern
US ridge retrogrades westward towards Arizona and California and
strengthens. Temperatures Wednesday will be near average in the
80s and low 90s, but by Thursday and Friday, temperatures will
return into the 90s. Next Saturday/Sunday will need to be
monitored for fire weather as ensembles are generally in
agreement of troughing offshore British Columbia moving inland,
bringing in another dry cold front. Chances for rain in the next
week look bleak (near/at 0 percent chance) for the Inland
Northwest. /Butler

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Winds continue to be
gusty the west/southwest around 25-30kt for KPUW-KLWS-KCOE-
KSFF- KEAT with KMWH-KGEG seeing wind gusts around 30-35 kt
Saturday afternoon. Smoke impacts from current fires appear
minimal but any new fires may bring reduced visibilities to any
of the TAF sites. Winds will relax into the evening after 06Z to
less than 10 kt. A stable environment will bring VFR conditions
and slightly less breezy afternoon conditions. /JDC

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence
in smoke reducing visibility at the TAF sites. High confidence
in the timing of winds weakening.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        58  86  57  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  59  85  58  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  83  51  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       63  92  62  91  62  92 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       52  86  52  86  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      56  84  54  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        56  83  55  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  89  57  89  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      61  88  62  88  64  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           57  89  59  89  59  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -
     Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington
     (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow
     Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains
     (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Selkirk Mountains
     of Northeast Washington (Zone 700)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Monday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan
     County-Western Okanogan County.
ID...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM PDT Sunday for Northern Panhandle.
     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Northern and
     Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).
     Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$