079
FXUS66 KOTX 172258
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
358 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible through Monday morning.

- Warm and dry for the new work week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through Monday morning
as a weak disturbance tracks through the region. Behind the
wave, a ridging pattern will lead to a return of warm, dry
conditions across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday night through Monday: A weak wave moving through the broader
southwest flow pattern aloft will bring chances for nocturnal
showers and potentially an elevated thunderstorm or two over the
eastern third of WA and North ID Sunday night into early Monday
morning. Confidence is low as to whether or not the dynamics
associated with this wave will be strong enough to produce any
lightning. The models most enthusiastic about nocturnal convection
(i.e., the NAM) show MUCAPE values topping out around 100 J/kg which
is rather pitiful in the world of atmospheric instability, but
enough to warrant a cautionary mention of thunderstorms.

By Monday afternoon any shower and thunderstorm chances will have
shifted east of the region, giving way to clear skies and
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Tuesday through Saturday: A quiet week is in store for the Inland
Northwest as a ridge of high pressure settles in over the region
bringing clear, dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures.
By next weekend, expect temperatures in the 90s to low 100s.
Overnight lows will range from the 50s to low 60s through the
forecast period. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions and light winds are expected throughout
the TAF period for all sites. There is a 30 percent chance of
showers for KGEG-KSFF-KPUW-KCOE from 11-19z. There is a 10-15%
chance of embedded thunderstorms with these showers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in continued VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        81  57  84  57  87  58 /   0   0  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  82  57  84  58  89  58 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Pullman        79  53  82  53  85  54 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       88  64  91  63  93  64 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       81  46  82  45  86  47 /   0   0  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      80  51  82  52  88  53 /   0   0  20   0   0   0
Kellogg        78  59  83  61  88  60 /   0   0  20   0   0   0
Moses Lake     83  58  86  55  87  56 /   0  10  20   0   0   0
Wenatchee      83  62  85  60  87  63 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           83  57  85  56  87  58 /   0   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$