182
FXUS66 KOTX 262300
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
400 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warming into the 90s to 100s next week with
  widespread Moderate and localized Major HeatRisk Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms Wednesday then 10-20
  percent chance Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures cool slightly over the weekend, then rebound early
next week into the high 90s and low 100s. There are increasing
chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms by the middle to
end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through tomorrow: a trough in British Columbia is bringing
lower heights into the area for the weekend. No precipitation is
anticipated in the forecast area with this trough, with any rain
falling to our southeast. Main impacts from this trough will be
lowered temperatures. Maximum temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
low 90s for much of the area today, with a slight increase tomorrow.
Winds in the Cascade gaps and basin areas continue to be breezy in
the afternoon, though as surface pressure increases throughout the
weekend into early next week, afternoon winds will lower beginning
tomorrow. All in all, a particularly pleasant rest of the weekend in
store!

Monday through Saturday: on Monday, a ridge over western Canada will
begin strengthening, prompting an increase in temperatures back
above normal values. Widespread temperatures will jump back into
the high 90s and low 100s through Wednesday. With low
temperatures near 65 degrees, overnight temperature recovery
worsens, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
result in widespread Moderate and pockets of Major HeatRisk
values for these days, and heat headlines may be needed.

Of additional concern next week is the ridge axis being just to
our east. This will allow southerly flow to move into the area.
A low pressure system off the Canadian coast will provide an
increase in moisture with this southerly flow as well,
increasing PWATs to nearly 160 percent of normal by Thursday
afternoon. This flow combined with the moisture and warm
temperatures bring a chance of thunderstorms to the area next
week. On Monday and Tuesday, thunderstorms will remain confined
to the eastern portions of our forecast area, with a 5-10
percent chance of thunder along the Idaho Panhandle for both
days. Additional moisture due to further lowering heights in
California will flow into the area Wednesday through Friday,
increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage to much of the
forecast area. On Wednesday, NBM thunder probabilities increase
slightly to 10-15 percent. The highest probabilities for thunder
occur on Thursday, with probabilities of 15-20 percent, with
accompanying surface based CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg.
Thunderstorm chances continue through Saturday afternoon, but
decrease each day after Thursday as the ridge moves east out of
the area and the southerly flow transitions into westerly flow.
Cluster agreement on this setup is mostly agreeable, though long
range models have struggled slightly on timing this far out. A
close eye will be kept on thunder potential and as medium and
short-range models pick up on the setup, details will become
clearer. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected over the TAF period with some
high level clouds moving in over the course of the day. The
majority of the TAF sites have stopped gusting but a few places
(KGEG/KCOE/KMWH) are still seeing gusts up to 20kts. Most of
these gusts are anticipated to end around 01Z. After this, winds
become mostly light and variable, with KEAT experiencing
breezier winds at sustained 10-12kts throughout the period.
Afternoon gustiness isn`t expected tomorrow at any of the sites
except for KGEG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions over the TAF period. /AS

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        57  87  58  91  61  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  57  87  59  90  60  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  85  54  88  57  92 /   0   0  10   0  10   0
Lewiston       64  93  65  96  68 100 /  10   0  10   0  10   0
Colville       49  87  49  90  51  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      52  84  54  88  55  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        60  85  62  88  64  91 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  90  57  94  60  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      62  89  65  93  68  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           60  89  61  94  63  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$