486
FXUS66 KOTX 061114
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
414 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and showery weather expected Sunday through Monday with
  isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will bring flooding
  concerns over recently burned areas and steep terrain late
  Sunday afternoon into Monday.

- A warming and drying trend returns around the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather sticks around through Labor Day Weekend with
scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and cooler than normal
temperatures. A warming and drying trend commences around the middle
of next week as higher pressure returns to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday: The slow moving low continues to move
over the region. Precipitable water amounts continue to rise to
0.8-1.0 by Monday. The increasing moisture will bring a steady
stream of clouds across the region. As the low moves east, the
moisture swath shifts away from the Cascades and more over the
Idaho Panhandle and eastern Washington. For Sunday, precip
chances start mainly over the Idaho Panhandle and expands west
through the afternoon and evening hours. Precip chances rise to
60-90 percent over southeast/east-central WA and central and
southern ID Panhandle from Sunday evening through Monday
morning. 24-hour probabilities from 5 PM Sunday to 5 PM Monday
for 0.50 inches are between 70-90 percent, 60-80 percent for
0.75 inches and 30-60 percent for 1 inch.

Afternoon and evening instability will lead to weak
thunderstorm chances. Cape values are in the in the 400-800 J/kg
range with moderate lapse rates support weak convection. The
main threat with the thunderstorms will be lightning and gusty
outflow winds. Winds will generally be light outside of the
thunderstorms. Monday afternoon will be breezy with gusts near
25 mph across the Basin. Highs will be in 70s to low 80s. Lows
will also be mild with a range of 40s to low 50s.

Tuesday through Friday: The ensembles are in decent agreement
for the extended. A flat ridge pattern will set up over the
region as the Low exits. It will lead to dry, warming trend
through the end of the week. Precip chances will be less than 10
percent through Thursday. Another trough will drop in from BC
Friday as remnants of tropical system begin to press moisture
into the Pacific Northwest. It is leading to increasing precip
chances going into the weekend. NBM thunderstorm potential in
around 10-20 percent across the Inland Northwest with highest
percents over Northeast WA and Idaho Panhandle late Friday and
Saturday. It is too early to have much confidence in the
upcoming weekend weather but something to keep on the radar.
Highs for the latter half of the week will be in the 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper-level low continues to linger over the
Pacific Northwest. Showers begin to increase across far eastern
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle Sunday afternoon with
steadier rain expected Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
Embedded thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening. For the
TAF sites, conditions will remain VFR with ceilings gradually
lowering to 5k feet and below at KPUW/KLWS/KCOE overnight
Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high
confidence for rain showers to move into extreme eastern
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle Sunday afternoon and then
becoming steadier in the evening. However, there is low
confidence for thunderstorms to impact TAF sites. Ceilings begin
to lower across southeast Washington and the central and
southern Idaho Panhandle Sunday night with probabilities of MVFR
ceilings increasing to 30% for KPUW and LWS after 09Z.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        75  50  67  48  73  47 /  10  70  50  40   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  75  49  63  48  71  46 /  20  80  80  50  10   0
Pullman        71  46  64  40  71  42 /  10  70  60  10   0   0
Lewiston       76  55  70  51  77  52 /  10  80  70  20   0   0
Colville       76  44  71  40  75  40 /   0  40  40  30   0   0
Sandpoint      71  48  61  43  67  42 /  20  70  80  70  20   0
Kellogg        73  48  58  47  67  45 /  50  90  90  60  20   0
Moses Lake     75  50  75  46  78  47 /  10  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  57  76  56  80  58 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           77  50  76  49  79  50 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$