042
FXUS66 KOTX 222339
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
439 PM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm through Thursday with high temperatures in the upper
  90s to low 100s. Widespread moderate and major HeatRisk.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Thursday morning and
  again in the afternoon may result in new fire starts and gusty
  outflow winds.

- Critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday
  afternoons due to low relative humidity and winds. Any new or
  ongoing wildfires will be capable of spreading rapidly.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures expected through Thursday. Smoke from local
wildfires will result in hazy skies and may keep high
temperatures cooler than currently forecasted. Increasing
moisture on Thursday may result in isolated thunderstorms
Thursday morning and again Thursday afternoon. Dry and breezy
winds Friday and especially Saturday will result in critical
fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: Hot conditions are expected to continue
through at least Friday under the influence of the southwestern
ridge of high pressure. High temperatures through Friday will be
in the 90s to lower 100s, leading to Moderate to Major HeatRisk. This
level of heat will be of risk to much of the population,
especially anyone without effective cooling or hydration. Air
quality alerts continue through Friday morning for much of
central and eastern Washington from smoke from local and
regional fires. When air quality is Unhealthy, everyone should
reduce exposure. Limit time outside and avoid strenuous
activity.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
starting tonight and lasting through at least Saturday. An upper
level low off the California coast continues to slowly meander
north today, bringing increased PWATs around 180-200% of normal
to the Inland Northwest. This will increase concerns for
lightning starting tonight in the Cascades. Synoptic lift is not
particularly impressive but ongoing thunderstorm activity in
western Washington and northern Oregon tomorrow afternoon will
move towards the Cascades. Elevated instability will be decent
around 200-600 J/kg, sufficient for lightning strikes into
Thursday morning. As such, we have issued Red Flag Warnings for
much of the Cascades, Western Okanogan county, and the Okanogan
Highlands starting at 2 AM tonight and lasting through 2 AM
Friday. The Colville Reservation also has a red flag warning,
but the morning thunderstorm activity looks to be mainly west of
the area so it does not start until 1 PM Thursday.
Thunderstorms will have some precipitation falling out of them
with higher PWATs, but strikes outside of thunderstorm cores and
gusty outflow winds up to 35 mph raise concern for new fire
starts that rapidly spread. There is also a 20-25% chance of a
stronger thunderstorm in the Blue mountains and the Camas
Prairie tomorrow afternoon that would support gusts around 50
mph. With onshore flow Thursday afternoon in western Washington
and increasing pressure gradients, Cascade gap winds around
10-15 mph with gusts up 20 mph are possible Thursday evening.

Synoptic winds will continue to trend upward Friday and especially
Saturday as pressure gradients continue to increase. The
greatest chance for wind/low humidity overlap Friday will be in
the east slopes of the Cascades, Waterville Plateau, Okanogan
Valley, and Western Columbia basin with 10-20 mph southwest
winds gusting around 20-30 mph. The synoptics are impressive
Saturday with a 100 kt upper level jet overhead and a deepening
low pressure in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. 700 mb winds
will be around 30-45 kt, which is into the 99th percentile for
this time of year. With that in mind, sustained surface winds
will be westerly/southwesterly around 15-30 mph, with gusts
around 25-45 mph. Any new or existing wildfires Saturday will be
capable of very rapid fire spread. Fire weather watches have
been issued for both Friday and Saturday for portions of the
region.

Sunday through Wednesday: The overall longwave pattern looks to
remain fairly steady through next week. The desert southwest
ridge will stay anchored and longwave troughing will continue in
the Gulf of Alaska. This will favor elevated winds and mostly
dry conditions to continue for the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures will be near normal in the 80s and 90s with breezy
conditions continuing. /DB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure and light winds will allow smoke and
haze to continue across the Inland Northwest. Smoke may
intermittently reduce visibilities to MVFR across TAF sites.
Some slightly higher wind gusts are expected toward afternoon to
evening near the Okanogan Valley and near the Cascades,
including KEAT/KOMK with gusts up to 15kts. Otherwise mid and
high clouds will continue to stream into the region from the
southwest. Chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms
increase tonight after 09Z for the Cascades and spread into the
Okanogan Highlands and northeast Washington after 12Z. A risk
for stronger thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds increases
after 23Z across the north Cascades and then southeast
Washington and the southern ID Panhandle, including KPUW and
KLWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence in the visibility forecast at the TAF sites. Low
confidence for any showers or thunderstorms at TAF sites
overnight into Thursday morning.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        66  97  66  95  63  91 /   0  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  67  95  66  94  63  91 /   0  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  91  58  92  58  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       69  99  68 101  68  97 /   0  20  30   0   0   0
Colville       62  96  60  95  58  91 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      63  95  63  93  60  91 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        64  92  61  91  61  88 /   0  20   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     68  98  64  98  63  93 /   0  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      77  98  69  97  69  90 /  10  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           72  99  68  98  64  93 /   0  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane
     Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone
     701)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Okanogan
     Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Selkirk
     Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700).
     Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Friday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Foothills of
     Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley
     (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday for
     Colville Reservation (Zone 702).
     Red Flag Warning from 2 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday for
     East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan
     National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington
     Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North
     Cascades (Zone 698)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan
     Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley
     (Zone 703).
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-
     Northern Panhandle.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone
     101).

&&

$$