954
FXUS66 KOTX 242350
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
350 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend into early next week will feature seasonal
temperatures and chances for valley rain and brief snow and
periods of mountain snow. Travel impacts Wednesday through
Saturday will be low with scattered light snow showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday Night: Vally rain and mountain snow is
moving through the region. There is still some cold air up in the
Methow valley with snow falling. In the Methow, and mountain
passes at this time, it looks like the snow is not sticking to the
roads, but that will change as we head into the evening. The
heaviest precip has fallen, and have 1-2 inches of snow overnight
and through Monday morning for Winthrop and Stevens Pass. The NBM
is producing slightly higher amounts for Loup Loup and Sherman
Pass, with 2-4 inches forecast.

There is a second wave that moves in Monday morning across the
region. It will be into central WA around 3am, and be into eastern
WA after 5am and north ID Panhandle after 7am. Though
precipitation will be fairly brief...temperatures will be right
around freezing, and could produce a light dusting of snow just in
time for the Monday morning commute. Conditions could vary greatly
from location to location, so careful as headed out in the early
morning hours.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday there is generally a 20-40%
chance of precip for the valleys (with parts of the Columbia
Basin, Wenatchee area and up the Okanogan Valley largely being
missed), and a 50-80% chance in the mountains, with highest
probabilities in the ID Panhandle. Snow levels will generally be
2500-3000 ft thru Tuesday and then lower further by Wed morning.
Precipitation amounts look very light, so great travel conditions
for anyone traveling earlier in the week.

Temperatures to start out the week will be in the mid 20s and low
30s for lows and highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. This is at or a
degree or two above average for the end of November. /Nisbet

Wednesday through Sunday: Conditions will be cool and
relatively quiet over the second half of the workweek into next
weekend as we transition into a northwesterly flow regime with a
ridge of high pressure amplifying off of the coast. A 20 to 40
percent chance for precipitation will persist through the period
over the Cascades, Idaho panhandle, and the eastern third of
Washington. Temperatures will gradually trend colder with afternoon
highs starting out near 40 on Wednesday and dropping into the low to
mid 30s by the weekend. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the
mid 20s to mid 30s and will drop by a couple of degrees each day
through next weekend, dipping into the teens to low 20s by early
Saturday morning. Any precipitation will likely fall as snow, though
amounts look light and non-impactful. High pressure in the fall and
winter months often results in strong inversions, keeping moisture
near the surface and providing favorable conditions for fog
development, so expect areas of fog each morning.
/Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The first band of -ra continues to be pointed at E WA/N
ID. -RA will continue the next few hours at GEG/SFF/COE/MWH/EAT
and then will lift further north through the night. Towards morning,
a weak frontal band will develop precip for EAT/MWH/GEG/SFF/COE.
The front will be very weak with light intensity precipitation and
fairly short lived, but will keep fueling an already moist
boundary layer and increasing probabilities for MVFR cigs or
lower. During the break in precip this evening/overnight am
suggesting VFR conditions for GEG/SFF/COE. But keep fog and/or
stratus going for MWH/EAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence is moderate in TAF locations GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS.
Confidence is lower for MWH/EAT where ra/sn from today leads to
potential for MVFR/IFR stratus or fog...and for it to continue
through Monday after the second band of potential precip.


-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  41  33  41  31  39 /  90  50  30  20  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  31  40  33  40  30  38 /  90  60  60  50  40  40
Pullman        31  42  33  39  31  41 /  20  20  40  50  40  30
Lewiston       34  48  37  44  33  44 /  10  10  20  30  10  10
Colville       30  36  30  40  24  39 / 100  70  30  10  10  10
Sandpoint      30  36  32  39  28  39 /  80  70  70  60  50  60
Kellogg        29  39  32  37  30  41 /  50  50  60  80  70  80
Moses Lake     32  42  32  43  29  41 /  40  20  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      33  39  31  42  26  41 /  70  30  10   0   0   0
Omak           33  39  31  42  26  39 /  90  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$