328
FXUS66 KOTX 162250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
350 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorm chances continue on Sunday.

- Temperatures warm back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday.

- Drier air returns midweek.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorm threat continues into
the the start of next week. Temperatures trend warmer. A drier
airmass moves in by the middle of next week. pattern change at
the end of the week will bring cooler, breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: A low sitting off the PNW coast is bringing overall
southwest flow to the area, increasing PWATs to 100 to 150 percent
of normal (0.75 to 1 inch). A few weak impulses moving through the
area combined with the added moisture and daytime heading has led to
thunderstorms in the Cascades, northern mountains central and
northern ID Panhandle, and far SE Washington. Through the rest of
Sunday, these areas have a continued 10-20 percent chance of
isolated thunderstorms. These thunderstorms have mainly been
producing lightning, gusty outflow winds 15-25 mph, and localized
heavy downpours. Main impacts from these thunderstorms look to be
any lightning induced fire starts. Other impacts being seen
throughout the forecast area include Wenatchee and Moses Lake, which
continue to see degraded air quality due to being downwind of the
Little Giant Fire. Elsewhere, expect dry conditions and light winds.

Monday through Thursday: By tomorrow afternoon, thunderstorm chances
will decrease as a drier air mass begins moving in. Potential
thunderstorm coverage decreases dramatically, with only a 5 to 10
percent chance near far SE Washington and in the far northern
Cascades. With higher heights over the area, temperatures will
increase through the week. A dry trough will move through the area
on Tuesday, bringing wind gusts of 15-20 mph to the Cascade gaps and
Basin areas during the afternoon and evening. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to drop to the high teens to low 20s.
For the lower Columbia Basin and Palouse areas, Hot Dry Windy Index
values rise to above the 90th percentile. Tuesday will continue to
be monitored for any potential fire weather headlines. Winds
will relax by Wednesday and further on Thursday, decreasing fire
weather concerns. Temperatures continue rising with the
building of the ridge, increasing back into the low to mid 90s
by Thursday.

Friday through Saturday: The low off the coast will finally begin
moving northeastward and across the state of Washington by Friday,
and will usher in a robust dry cold front on Saturday. While Friday
will continue seeing temperatures in the low to mid 90s, Saturday
looks to see temperatures lower 4-6 degrees. Clusters initially were
in disagreement about the evolution of the low, but now nearly 80
percent of ensemble members show the low approaching the WA/OR
border on Friday and a trough moving through on Saturday. Winds with
this frontal passage will be more widespread and reach 20 to 25 mph.
Hot, Dry, Windy Index values increase into the 70th percentile and
above for areas in the basin, Cascades, and Palouse. With these
higher wind gusts, Saturday also becomes a day to watch for potential
fire weather concerns such as quick fire spread for any new and
ongoing fires. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the 24
hour TAF period with isolated MVFR visibilities due to smoke.
Confidence in visibility impacts is too low at this time to
bring TAF visibilities lower than 6SM for all terminals apart
from EAT. Smoke models keep EAT at MVFR for portions of this and
the next TAF period from the Little Giant Fire. Winds will be
mostly light through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in smoke and haze continuing to impact local terminals, but low
confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. /AS

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        57  89  58  88  57  87 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  57  88  59  88  56  86 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        51  88  53  86  49  85 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       64  93  65  93  61  92 /  10   0  10   0   0   0
Colville       47  87  49  88  47  87 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      51  84  52  84  50  84 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        55  85  56  84  54  84 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     58  91  58  91  55  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      66  91  67  90  63  90 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           61  91  62  91  59  90 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan
     County-Western Okanogan County.
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$