712
FXUS66 KOTX 070358
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
858 PM PDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated grass fire concerns in central Washington this afternoon
  and evening

- Showery Wednesday night and a brief cooldown in the 60s
  Thursday

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through much of the week. Winds will be breezy at
times. Temperatures return into the 70s Tuesday and continue to be warmer
than normal throughout the work week. A weak cold front will bring a chance
for light showers and gusty winds on Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As a ridge moves into the area, it will bring warmer temperatures and dry
conditions through tomorrow evening. Temperatures will remain above normal
for this time of year. Winds this evening will be seasonably breezy, with
gusts 10-15 mph throughout the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley. Relative
humidity will be lower than normal, so these breezy winds will
result in elevated grass fire concerns this evening through
tonight. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the two, with high
temperatures being in the mid to high 70s with some 80s
sprinkled around in the deeper valleys.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a cold front will usher in gusty
winds and cooling temperatures alongside a small chance of precipitation
throughout the Cascades and northern Idaho Panhandle. Winds in the
Cascades, Moses Lake, Waterville Plateau, and the Northeast Blue Mountains
will be gusty tomorrow, with wind gusts reaching 35-40 mph through the
evening and into the morning. Right now, winds are not at advisory levels,
so we are not planning any wind headlines. PoPs rise, but apart from some
light precipitation (a tenth of an inch or less) in the Cascades and the
northern Idaho Panhandle, most areas will not see any rain with this
system.

This cooldown will be short lived, as another ridge sets up Friday and
looks to last through the weekend. Temperatures will rise back up to the
high 70s and low 80s, and conditions will remain dry, with lower than
normal relative humidities. Right now, winds do not look to be
a concern, but will keep an eye on them for continued grass
fire potential.

Our biggest shot for widespread precipitation lies in the extended
forecast, with a low anticipated to move in off the Pacific Northwest coast
Sunday night and into next week. Current cluster analysis agrees that
weather will become more unsettled, but are still disagreeing on the
location and strength of the low. In tandem with cluster analysis, the
CPC 6-10 day outlook has a 50-60 percent chance of above normal
precipitation, so stay tuned for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: VFR conditions prevail over the next 24 hours. A front moving in
from the west later Wednesday will bring increasing middle to high clouds.
A chance -shra enters EAT and MWH after 00-03Z. The -shra risk pushes
toward GEG,SFF,COE toward the end of the TAF period. Winds increase after
20Z, gusting near 15-20kts. The gusts decrease over eastern TAFs after
02-03Z but the front will keep conditions at breezy near
EAT/MWH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR
conditions. Low to moderate confidence in -shra between 00-06Z near
MWH/EAT. Risk that -shra may develop near PUW/LWS/GEG/SFF between 03-06Z,
but confidence is low.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        44  76  45  65  40  75 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  76  46  65  38  75 /   0   0  20   0   0   0
Pullman        44  75  45  63  40  74 /   0   0  20   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  83  53  72  46  82 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Colville       39  75  39  67  35  74 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      42  74  46  64  38  73 /   0   0  30   0   0   0
Kellogg        47  73  49  62  42  74 /   0   0  30   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  81  42  69  41  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  79  43  69  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           46  78  41  69  40  76 /   0   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$