502
FXUS66 KOTX 150519
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1019 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cool and showery at times through at least early next week

-Windy in Central WA this evening

&&

.UPDATE...
Evening update at 6:30 PM to increase the winds near the
Cascades. Observations are showing windy conditions with a tight
cross Cascade pressure gradient resulting in sustained winds of
25-35 mph and gusts up to around 45 mph across the Wenatchee
Area and on the Waterville Plateau. The higher end winds of
gusts to around 45 mph are only expected for another few hours
and will elect to hold off on a short-fused wind advisory. Winds
will gradually decrease overnight with the loss of surface
heating over the Columbia Basin that will weaken the thermally
induced pressure gradient. /SVH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern will continue through at
least early next week. In addition, breezy winds are expected at
times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday Night: An upper low over central British
Columbia today will slide southeast, and sheer apart as it
tracks into NW Montana on Thursday. This will result in the best
lift tracking east of the area bringing a drying trend into
Thursday. Although residual moisture and instability will lead
to continued scattered showers into the early evening over NE
Washington and the ID Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms are also
expected with uncapped surface based CAPE of 250-500 J/KG.
Storms will be capable of producing pea size hail. Most of the
activity will wind down after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating. On Thursday a short wave ridge moves over the area for
dry conditions except for a chance of showers over the ID
Panhandle and extreme NE Washington.

Thursday Night into Friday the next short wave pushes in from
the west. There are some model differences with the chances and
amount of precipitation, but the GFS and ECMWF ensembles have
trended a little wetter with a tenth to quarter inch of rain
over the ID Panhandle and eastern third of WA, with less than a
tenth in Central WA. POP`s have been increased above the
National Blend of Models (NBM) given the recent trend with the
ensembles. This wave exits Friday evening but the next one is
right on its heels keeping a chance of showers over the area. JW

Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon: Another low pressure
system will move through the area Saturday through Sunday, bringing
precipitation to much of the area, particularly to far eastern
Washington and the Northern Idaho Panhandle. Saturday morning, the
low pressure system will come onshore off the coast of Oregon and
northern California before deepening throughout the day and moving
southeastward further into the Nevada/Utah/Arizona area. Right now,
models are struggling on whether the track of the low will result in
widespread rainfall throughout the forecast area or minimal
rainfall. Half of the WPC clusters have the low moving far enough
south that rain could be minimal, whereas the other half have
lowering heights reaching the area. Additionally, deterministic long-
range models are showing very high mid-level moisture that would
indicate high PoPs, while the NBM has very low overall PoPs outside
of the Northern Idaho Panhandle. Should the higher PoPs end up
coming to fruition, areas in far eastern Washington and the Northern
Idaho Panhandle could see up to a quarter inch of rain on Saturday.
Lower PoPs will lead to roughly a tenth of an inch of rain. Either
way, this low pressure system will bring a wetting rain to at least
the eastern portion of the forecast area. We`ll be watching this
closely, so stay tuned.

Sunday afternoon through Monday evening: After the low pressure
system moves out of the area, higher heights will allow temperatures
to warm by a few degrees. Mostly dry conditions will prevail apart
from some lingering mountain rain due to orographic lift.

Monday evening through Wednesday: The weather continues to stay
overall unsettled as models pick up on another low pressure system
moving through, with rain beginning in the Cascades and Northern
Mountains before becoming more widespread. Temperatures throughout
the extended period hover around normal, with highs mostly in the
low to mid 60s. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers will continue along a shortwave disturbance
over northeast Washington into the northern Panhandle primarily
north of a line from KGEG to KCOE through 09Z. An area of low
stratus will then form late tonight into Thursday morning over
extreme portions of northeast Washington into the northern
Panhandle in the vicinity of KGEG/KSFF/KCOE as well as KCQV to
KSZT. Expect MVFR ceilings with this stratus cover through the
morning on Thursday. Isolated afternoon showers are expected
mainly over the mountains on Thursday and unlikely to impact
airports. Windy through the Cascades tonight with gusts up to
25-30 kts at KEAT through around 09Z before winds relax. Breezy
westerly winds will return in the late afternoon and evening on
Thursday, but not as gusty with winds generally up to between 15
kts out of the west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is a 10% chance of IFR or MVFR stratus impacting
KGEG/KSFF/KPUW 12-16z Thursday, with a 40% chance for KCOE. /SVH

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        42  63  44  57  44  66 /  20  10  20  60  10  40
Coeur d`Alene  44  61  42  56  42  66 /  40  20  20  60  20  40
Pullman        38  59  42  55  40  63 /  10   0  20  60  10  40
Lewiston       46  66  48  62  45  69 /   0   0  30  40  10  40
Colville       38  66  44  58  41  63 /  60  10  30  70  40  60
Sandpoint      43  60  42  56  41  64 /  70  50  20  70  30  50
Kellogg        43  57  41  54  41  64 /  40  20  20  70  20  40
Moses Lake     42  70  47  68  48  69 /   0  10  40  10  10  40
Wenatchee      46  68  46  68  48  66 /   0  10  30  10  10  40
Omak           42  68  47  65  45  66 /   0  10  30  30  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$