435
FGUS64 KORN 122312
ESGORN

Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell LA
1700 PM CST Wednesday February 12 2025

Central Region - Spring Flood Potential Outlook
              National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center - Slidell, LA
          valid for Thursday February 13 2025


Streamflow data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

...For Central Region...WFOS SGF PAH AND LSX ONLY...


...Introduction...


Starting in December and into February, we have seen below to near normal precipitation
in southern Missouri and Illinois as well as western Kentucky. In the upper Mississippi
Valley as well as the Missouri Valley below Gavin`s Point Dam, little to no snowpack
will contribute to below average contributions from the upper Mississippi River and
Missouri River.

Soil moisture conditions across the Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys has remained
stable or slightly dired since thebegining of December. This will allow soils to absorb
more spring rainfall, which is the key driver of flooding in the area of southern
Missouri and Illinois, as well as western Kentucky.

...Mississippi River below Chester IL AND Ohio River below
Smithland Dam IL (WFO PAH)...

Regular Precipitation over the past few months has caused the river to recover from low
flow conditions of last fall, however not enough precipitation has fallen to bring
streamflows back towards flood stages. That may change with precipitation expected to
fall in the next 7 to 10 days.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal
streamflows:

                                             2/12
Mississippi River              Thebes IL     87%
Ohio River                      Cairo IL     115%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflow conditions...and extremely low snow pack...
But elevated forecasted precipitation expected over the next 7 days and a wetter than
average outlook for the season...an AVERAGE to BELOW AVERAGE Flood Potential
is expected along the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers. Due to the low snow pack
the magnitude of future crests will depend on the frequency...intensity...and
extent of spring rains.


...St. Francis Basin of south Missouri (WFO PAH)...

The St. Francis Basin has received near to below normal levels of precipitation this
winter and streamflows are running normal based on current conditions.
Minor rises occurred in January, but remained well below flood levels. Steady
base flow conditions are currently occurring on the upper St. Francis River.
Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                            2/12
St. Francis River           Patterson MO    110%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall
patterns...an BELOW AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the upper St. Francis
Basin. Percent of available flood control storage for the St. Francis Reservoirs
are given below.

                                              2/12
                      Wappapello Res. MO      99%


...Black/White Basins of south Missouri (WFO SGF/LSX/PAH)...

During the winter, minor rises occurred over the upper portions of the Black
River Basin. Dry conditions have many locations from reaching flood
levels so far in 2025. Normal to slightly below normal precipitation has occurred
over the basins. Soil moisture content is below average conditions. Streamflow
conditions are near seasonal levels. No flooding is occurring on the upper
Black/White basins and no flooding is forecast over the next several days.
Observed daily streamflow as a percent of median are given below.


                                             2/12
Black River                 Annapolis MO     95%
Black River              Poplar Bluff MO     100%
James River                    Galena MO     74%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall
patterns...an AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the upper Black and upper
White Basins. Percent of available flood control storage for the
Black/White Reservoirs are given below.

                                             2/12
      Combined Black/White Reservoirs AR     99%

...Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
below normal temperatures over the Missouri, Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
The precipitation outlook in the 8-14 days is below normal over the upstream
areas.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures for most of the
Missouri, Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Chances of above normal precipitation are
indicated across the upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with above normal in the upper
Missouri Valley.

The 90 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates equal
chances for above or below normal temperatures over the upper Missouri, Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys. Chances of above normal precipitation are indicated over the
Missouri, Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys.

The next scheduled spring flood outlook will be released on February 20 2025.

.END


$$