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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell LA
1700 PM CST Wednesday March 12 2025

Central Region - Spring Flood Potential Outlook
              National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center - Slidell, LA
          valid for Thursday March 13 2025


Streamflow data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

...For Central Region...WFOS SGF PAH AND LSX ONLY...


...Introduction...


Since the second outlook, we have seen below normal precipitation across the LMRFC service
Area. In the upper Mississippi Valley as well as the Missouri Valley below Gavin`s Point
Dam, little to no snowpack will contribute to below average contributions from the upper
Mississippi River and Missouri River.

Soil moisture conditions across the Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys has remained
stable or slightly degraded since the second outlook. Soils in southern Missouri, Illinois
and western Kentucky are moister due to some significant rainfall event over the past 4
weeks. Soils will still have some ability to absorb spring rainfall, which is the key
driver of flooding in the area of southern Missouri and Illinois, as well as western
Kentucky.

...Mississippi River below Chester IL AND Ohio River below
Smithland Dam IL (WFO PAH)...

Regular Precipitation over the winter season has caused the main rivers to recover from low
flow conditions of last fall. Despite a large rain event in the Ohio Valley a few weeks ago,
the lower Ohio River has fallen to around 50% of its normal flow. That may be improved by
precipitation expected to fall in the next 5 to 7 days.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal
streamflows:

                                             3/12
Mississippi River              Thebes IL     86%
Ohio River                      Cairo IL     50%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflow conditions...and extremely low snow pack...
But elevated forecasted precipitation expected over the next 7 days and a wetter than
average outlook for the season in the Ohio and upper Mississippi Valleys...
a BELOW AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected along the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
Rivers. Due to the low snow pack the magnitude of future crests will depend on the
frequency...intensity...and extent of spring rains.


...St. Francis Basin of south Missouri (WFO PAH)...

The St. Francis Basin has received near to below normal levels of precipitation this
winter and streamflows are running normal based on current conditions. Minor rises
occurred in February, but remained well below flood levels in Missouri. Steady
baseflow conditions are currently occurring on the upper St. Francis River. Significant
rain fell in this area in the past 2 weeks but the next 7 day forecast only shows low
amounts of rainfall. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                            3/12
St. Francis River           Patterson MO    78%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall
patterns...an BELOW AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the upper St. Francis
Basin. Percent of available flood control storage for the St. Francis Reservoirs
are given below.

                                              2/26
                      Wappapello Res. MO      97.6%


...Black/White Basins of south Missouri (WFO SGF/LSX/PAH)...

During the winter, minor rises occurred over the upper portions of the Black
River Basin. Normal to below normal precipitation has occurred over the basins since
the second outlook. Soil moisture content is average to above average conditions.
Streamflow conditions are near seasonal levels. No flooding is occurring on the upper
Black/White basins and no flooding is forecast over the next several days. Observed daily
streamflow as a percent of median are given below.


                                             3/12
Black River                 Annapolis MO     75%
Black River              Poplar Bluff MO     77%
James River                    Galena MO     79%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall
patterns...a BELOW AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the upper Black and
upper White Basins. Percent of available flood control storage for the
Black/White Reservoirs are given below.

                                             3/12
      Combined Black/White Reservoirs AR     98%

...Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates normal
to above normal temperatures over the Missouri, Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
The precipitation outlook in the 8-14 days is above normal over the upstream areas.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures for most of the Missouri,
upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Chances of above normal precipitation are
indicated across the upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with normal cahnces in across
the Missouri Valley.

The 90 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates equal
chances for above or below normal temperatures over the Missouri, upper Mississippi
and lower Ohio Valleys. Above normal temperatures will be seen across the eastern portion
of the Ohio Valley. Chances of above normal precipitation are indicated over the lower
Missouri, most of the Mississippi, and the entire Ohio Valleys.

This is the FINAL scheduled Spring Flood Outlook for 2025.

.END


$$