236
FNUS71 KOKX 211012
FWSOKX

Spot Forecast for Jennings Creek Fire...DEC
National Weather Service New York NY
512 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0615 EST on November 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

631-924-0383

.DISCUSSION...
A wetting rainfall through Friday will help mitigate short term
concerns for fire danger, but will not be enough to lift us from
long term drought.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers.
CWR.................100 percent decreasing to 90 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........45 at forecast start...Max 45.
RH..................100 percent at forecast start...Min 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 8 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise North winds 7 to 9 mph with
                    gusts to around 17 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 8 mph with gusts to around 16
                    mph late in the afternoon.
ADI.................0 to 35.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........95  95  93  94  94  94  95  95  95  94  95  94
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............100 90  90  90  100 100 100 90  90  90  90  90
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............43  45  41  44  44  44  44  44  43  42  41  40
RH..............100 96  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..020 030 030 030 020 020 010 010 000 340 330 320
20 FT wind spd..8   8   9   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.14  16  17  16  16  16  14  14  14  16  16  16
ADI.............21  27  32  35  33  23  11  0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and
                    snow showers in the evening, then snow showers
                    likely and chance of rain showers overnight.
CWR.................90 percent decreasing to 30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 31.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after 3 am. Gusts up to 24 mph.
ADI.................0.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........95  97  95  93  94  87  88  80  78  79  75  76
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RS  RS  SW  SW  SW  RS  RS  RS  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............90  80  80  80  70  70  70  40  40  40  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............39  38  36  35  34  33  34  34  34  33  32  32
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..310 300 290 270 260 250 240 230 230 220 210 200
20 FT wind spd..9   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.17  18  18  18  18  19  18  18  18  18  18  18
ADI.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers and slight chance of rain showers in
                    the morning, then rain showers and snow showers
                    likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................30 percent increasing to 60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 41.
RH..................Min 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 18
                    mph shifting to the southeast 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the afternoon, then becoming light late in
                    the afternoon.
ADI.................0.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  81  71  66  71  71  73  74  74  74  74  75
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  RW  RW  RW  RS  RS
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30  50  50  50  50  50  50  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............31  31  32  34  36  38  40  41  41  40  39  37
RH..............100 100 100 100 96  89  82  79  79  82  85  92
20 FT wind dir..190 190 180 180 180 170 160 160 150 140 130 110
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   4
20 FT wind gust.18  18  17  16  16  14  14  14  13  11  10  10
ADI.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...BR
Requested by...Charles Kabrehl
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2427095.1/OKX
.DELDT 11/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL charles.kabrehl@dec.ny.gov