540
FXUS61 KOKX 071807 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
207 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Conditions potentially meeting advisory or warning criteria on
land are not expected through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will provide the area with dry conditions through most
of the forecast period. The only chances of rain appear to be during
late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as a cold front
approaches and passes through. Highest chances would be during
Thursday afternoon, but probabilities are still only around 40%
during that time. Regarding thunderstorms, enough CAPE is progged
for a chance of thunder Thursday afternoon and evening but not very
supportive of severe wx. Shear would slowly diminish through the
day, so that would work against severe wx chances. Will need to
watch the trends in progged CAPE and shear as the day approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the NW through Tuesday.

VFR through the TAF period.

NW-N winds 10kt or less will gradually back to a more westerly
flow toward evening. There is a chance winds take on a more
southerly component at KJFK late, but confidence is too low to
mention in the TAF. Light W winds this evening will veer back to
the NW tonight, then increase to 7-10kt after 12Z.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts 15-18kt this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon: VFR. NW winds back to SW-S by late day.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt and showers possible with
MVFR late at night.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in SHRA. SW/ gusts around 20
kt possible.

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through Tuesday with high pressure over the waters. SW winds will
then increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind gusts
probably approach 25 kt on the ocean Wednesday afternoon and then
spread to the rest of the nearshore waters Wednesday night.
These winds will continue into Thursday, and there is a chance of
gale force gusts late Wednesday night into Thursday morning east of
Fire Island Inlet. Will continue to mention this potential in the
HWO. Ocean seas build to 5-8 ft Wednesday night into Thursday, and
there is a chance for waves on the LI sound to become 3-4 ft. Winds
and seas gradually diminishing Thursday night into Friday.

Rip Currents:

A lack of significant wind or swell under building high pressure
will lead to a low rip current risk today through Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC