567
FXUS61 KOKX 172340
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A approaching cold front to the north and west moves through the
area tonight. High pressure builds in to the north Monday and
moves off the northern New England coast Tuesday. A weakening
frontal system approaches from the west Wednesday. The frontal
system and Hurricane Erin will pass well out into the Atlantic
on Thursday. High pressure will return by late week. Please
refer to National Hurricane Center forecasts for further
information on Erin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Cold front is over the northern portion of the forecast area and
should push through most of the area by shortly after midnight.
Convection is dissipating, however with the front still not
completely through and some lingering CAPE, cannot rule out a
few showers or a thunderstorm before 10pm. Additional shower
activity will continue in the vicinity of the cold front
overnight, but should remain primarily offshore. Low
temperatures in the 60s for most spots, but even some upper 50s
well NW of the city.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A much cooler and drier airmass builds into the region for
Monday through Tuesday, with a northeast to east flow, as high
pressure builds in from the north and eventually moves off the
northern New England coast. Dew points will be falling into the
50s across the region, and even into the 40s across a portion of
the region for Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over New England and the Canadian Maritimes on
Tuesday night will weaken as mid-level troughing amplifies
overhead as a result of a weakening frontal system approaching
from the west and Hurricane Erin moving northward in the Western
Atlantic. Surface ridging looks to remain in place with the
frontal system stalling out to the west. As the frontal system
weakens, spotty showers are possible, mainly for western areas
on Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

By Thursday, Hurricane Erin absorbs whatever energy is left
from the decaying frontal system with the surface ridging
weakening. Since the area will be well to the north and west of
Hurricane Erin, the only sensible weather impact will be a brisk
NE flow with perhaps some gusts upwards of 30 mph along the
eastern coastline. No precipitation is expected as Hurricane
Erin passes by well to the southeast.

The only impacts from Hurricane Erin will be with the ocean and
ocean shorelines impacted by waves/swell. See marine and
tides/coastal flooding sections for more details. Please refer
to the National Hurricane Center on the latest forecasts on
Erin.

As Erin amplifies the downstream trough, a mid-level ridge
builds over the area in its wake. This will result in surface
high pressure quickly moving in behind it on Friday. This will
bring clear skies and dry conditions with a flow shifting from N
Friday morning to S by Friday afternoon. The shift in flow will
allow temperatures to rise back to normal levels Friday as well
as a subtle increase in moisture. Another frontal system may
approach the area from the west toward next weekend but details
as to timing and coverage of any precipitation is still
uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be south of terminals by around midnight
tonight with high pressure building in behind it for Monday.

Shower activity continues to wane early this evening. An
a shower possible before the front passes through, but not
enough coverage to include in the forecast. A TSTM cannot be
ruled out either, but should that occur, it would likely occur
before 9pm.

SW winds shift northerly behind the cold front. Winds pick back
up late tonight to near 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt. Winds
gradually diminish through Monday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Iso TSTM cannot be ruled out before 01z. Timing of wind shift to
the north may be off by around an hour, and winds before this
time could vary mostly SW to W.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: MVFR with diminishing gusts.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a slight chance of
showers.

Thursday: MVFR. NE wind gusts around 20-25 kt.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the forecast
waters beginning late tonight. With the passage of a cold front
north to northeast winds are expected to gust to 25 to 30 kt,
and continue into Monday morning. There is a chance that gusts
on the western waters will be marginal and may not reach 25 kt,
as the trend has been for lower gusts. However, will leave the
advisory as previously issued. Winds and gusts diminish during
Monday afternoon, falling below advisory levels. However, ocean
seas will remain elevated with the persistent northeast flow. In
addition, swells from distant Hurricane Erin will begin to
arrive late day and contribute to the elevated seas, which will
continue into later in the week. The SCA on the ocean waters was
extended through Tuesday, and will likely be extended with
later forecasts as an extended period of SCA conditions are
expected for the ocean, and also the sound E of Orient Point,
with swells from Erin and eventually gusts 25-30 kt on the ocean
on Thursday as Erin passes well to the SE. Peak ocean seas are
forecast from late Wednesday night through Friday morning, in
excess of 10 ft and reaching 12-16 ft out east. Please refer to
National Hurricane Center forecasts for further information on
Erin.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for rip currents remains moderate for Monday though it
was borderline high risk due to increasing swell and waves
toward the afternoon.

A high risk of rip currents is forecast for Tuesday as the swell
from Hurricane Erin begins to arrive.

There is potential for dangerous surf and rip currents the rest
of this week as building long period swells from Erin arrive.
Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion may also become
possible during this time. Bias-corrected STOFS guidance
indicates only localized minor flooding, but departures 1/2 ft
higher than fcst (reasonable worst case) could lead to more
widespread minor flooding with the Thu night high tide cycle.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-
     335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ332-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC/JT