964
FXUS61 KOKX 111435
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be mostly in control of the weather through
Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front passes through tonight, then a
weak wave of low pressure passes to the south Thursday into
early Friday. The region will then be in between high pressure
in the Western Atlantic and approaching developing low pressure
to the west heading into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast generally on track. Updated temperatures and dew points
to reflect the latest observations. Updated Max temperatures
today for the Lower Hudson Valley to reflect the recent warmer
trend this morning.

Another sunny and mild day for today with high pressure in control.
900mb temps are similar to yesterday`s levels, but an ongoing flow
off the area waters will result in cooler high temperatures compared
to yesterday over Long Island, much of southern CT, and parts of the
city. Elsewhere, high temps at or a little above yesterday in most
cases. This will lead to some 70 degree readings in parts of NE NJ,
55-60 along south-facing shores, and 60s for the remainder of the
forecast area.

A cold front passes through tonight, but lacking moisture. Only some
clouds with its passage, and there may be some low stratus that
sneaks in along the south shore of Suffolk County tonight ahead of
its passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure stretches south from Quebec on Wednesday, bringing us
a cooler air mass with a northerly flow turning east by late in the
day. This along with subsidence will limit the mixing depth, so high
temperatures will be generally 50-55, which is still around 5
degrees above normal. Shortwave with some moisture may combine for
some light showers for the southern half of the area and mixed rain
and snow showers for the northern half during Wednesday night.
Precip chances are low however, capped at 30 percent.

Looks like we`ll be stuck with plenty of clouds during Thursday as
an easterly wind persists, helping to lock in lower level moisture.
In addition, a weak wave of low pressure forms along a stationary
front to our south. Associated isentropic lift could help produce
some drizzle in the afternoon and night. The clouds and onshore flow
will hold high temps in the 45-50 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday while at
the same time a weak low over the eastern Great Lakes region
transitions into an inverted trough as it moves across the forecast
area. Much of the area can expect a slight chance for showers as
this feature weakens while it moves across the area and much of any
dynamics remains mainly north of the area. Low end chance for
eastern areas as this looks to interact with another trough
offshore.

With weak high pressure over the region Friday into the first half
of the weekend, and weak ridging aloft, conditions are expected to
be dry Friday and mainly dry for Saturday (some uncertainty with
timing of the next system could bring in some showers for Saturday).
However, better chances for late Saturday night into Sunday as a
more amplified pattern develops. A stronger low approaches with a
strengthening cold front bringing the potential for moderate to
briefly heavy rain and gusty winds with strong meridional flow ahead
of it. There are of course a fair amount of timing issues this far
out, so confidence is rather low in any features that might
contribute to heavy rain.

Temperatures are expected to be above average through the period. In
fact, temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning may not drop
below the middle 50s for areas away from the coast, while highs on
Sunday could reach the middle 60s across northeast NJ. For context
on how warm lows will be Saturday night into Sunday, normal high
temperatures this time of year are in the upper 40s to near 50.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches this afternoon and passes through the
terminals tonight. High pressure builds across New England on
Wednesday.

VFR.

S flow around 5 kt will increase late this morning into the
afternoon, becoming 10-15 kt. Gusts 20-25 kt are expected at
KSWF and may be occasional for a few hours at KEWR, KTEB, KLGA,
and KHPN this afternoon. Winds may veer to the SW and weaken
below 10 kt this evening before shifting to the N behind the
front tonight into Wednesday morning, 10 kt or less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts 18-20 kt at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB may be frequent 18-22z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance
of a rain shower along the coast, and snow showers inland
Wednesday night.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions prevail through tonight. A persistent onshore
flow along with a weak wave of low pressure passing nearby to the
south may generate enough swell to push seas over 5 ft Wednesday
night through Thursday night. Winds otherwise should remain below 25
kt across all waters through this period.

Onshore flow Thursday will allow ocean waters to build to 5 ft
(mainly the central and eastern zones). They fall below 5 ft late
Thursday night and remain below SCA criteria through Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Min RH of 25-30 percent with a few wind gusts possible approaching
20 mph brings an elevated risk of fire spread today for portions of
the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT, and NE NJ. SPS has been
coordinated for these locations. RH should be higher across
coastal SE CT, as well as from NYC to Long Island with the flow
off the area waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next
weekend. There is some potential for heavy rain on Sunday, but
it is much too early to offer specific details.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JP/MW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP/DS
MARINE...JC/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP