931
FXUS61 KOKX 020839
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A wintry mix is expected for Tuesday. No advisories posted
at this time.

2) Generally wet conditions and above normal temperatures mid
week through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Overrunning precipitation ahead of a warm front spreads across
the forecast area during the day Tuesday. Good agreement among
various models that thermal profiles support snow until around
mid-morning. An elevated warm nose pushes in by late morning,
producing a wintry mix. The thermal profile then warms further
through the rest of the day with the entire area seeing precip
in the form of plain rain by late afternoon with maybe only NW
Orange County still seeing a wintry mix. Rain otherwise
continues into Tuesday night.

No Winter Weather Advisories for this event are expected at this
time. Snow amounts will be an inch or less. If there is a chance
of advisories being issued, it will more likely be due to
freezing rain. Based on the thermal profiles, there is only a
brief opportunity for freezing rain in parts of NE NJ into the
Lower Hudson Valley. By the time temps aloft would be warm
enough to support rain or freezing rain, surface temps are
expected to be at least in the mid 30s. There is however appears
to be a 1-3 hour overlap with surface temps and temps aloft
where freezing rain would be possible late morning into early
afternoon. Would have greater confidence in freezing rain if
there was a strong cold air damming signature or if guidance was
quicker with the warm air intrusion aloft, but this does not
appear to be the case.

Minor impacts nonetheless as the morning commute probably
features light snow for some areas with highest chances being in
NE NJ and NYC.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another wave of low pressure moves in quickly behind the
previous one as early as Wednesday evening. Continued
differences in location and timing have led to a prolonged
period of PoPs in the forecast. While PoPs extend mid week
through the weekend, a washout is not expected. All
precipitation is expected to fall as rain. There is a bit of a
stronger signal now in some of the guidance that this wave will
run into high pressure trying to nose down from the northeast.
While this will likely cause some ptype concerns well north of
our area, we are expected to remain all plain rain in our area.

This pattern will lead to several days of above normal
temperatures. Forecast highs next weekend are forecast to be in
the 60s for portions of northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson
Valley, while the cooler flow off the waters keeps LI and
coastal areas in the upper 40s lower 50s. Elsewhere mid to upper
50s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds into the area. Winds start off from
the north around 10 kt or less. This afternoon, south-southeast sea
breeze are expected mainly between 17Z-21Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of seabreezes may be off by an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond with a rain/snow mix in the morning,
becoming plain rain from south to north during the afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday: Chance of rain with MVFR or lower cond.

Friday: Chance of rain with MVFR or lower cond, mainly in the
morning at most terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control through tonight, then a
weak wave of low pressure will impact the area beginning
Tuesday. Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels on the
forecast waters through Tuesday night. However, with a
prolonged period of southwesterly winds ocean seas east of
Moriches Inlet may approach 5 feet by late Tuesday night.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on the ocean
waters with 5ft waves at the end of the week into the weekend.
Otherwise, with generally a weak pressure gradient over the
area, all other waters will fall below SCA criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC