002
FXUS61 KOKX 300549
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
149 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable conditions continue this weekend.

2) Turning unsettled Sunday afternoon through Thursday of next
week. There is the potential for impacts, but confidence of
impacts remains low this far out in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure remains positioned over much of the area tonight and
into the first half of Sunday with much lower humidity and
seasonable or slightly below average temperatures tonight.
Temperatures will be right at seasonable levels tonight through the
day Sunday. Once the center of the high passes east of the region,
humidity levels will begin to increase later in the day Sunday and
into Sunday night with a brisk southerly return flow.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A mid and upper level ridge sets up to the west-southwest late
Sunday and into Monday. A cold front approaches from the Upper
Midwest and the Great Lakes along the northern periphery of the
ridge Sunday night. As the ridge works east Sunday night through
Wednesday of next week, there remains good Global NWP and AI
agreement with the mid level mass fields. Our area will remain on
the northern periphery of upper level ridging. Our position on the
edge of this ridge will put the area in a good position to be
impacted by several shortwaves that are expected to slide along the
northern portion of the ridge.

As a surface low pressure system develops ahead of these
shortwaves, the warm front is expected to progress east and
likely just to the north or on the northern edge of the CWA into
Tuesday and Wednesday, which has often been the case this warm
season thus far. The area will be more unstable immediately
south of the warm/stationary boundary, but our area should
remain close enough to boundary to allow a good amount of
synoptic scale/mid level forcing. This suggests a period of
unsettled weather with the potential for some periods of
convectively induced rainfall.

There may also be some favorable jet dynamics to enhance
precipitation for Sunday night into Monday, but the NAM and GFS
differ on the location of the jet streak. While there remains
forecast uncertainty this far out, it appears the region will have
the potential for convectively induced heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorm activity. WPC currently has the area under a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall Monday through Thursday morning, and SPC
persists in placing the area in a 15 percent chance of severe
weather on Day 5 (Wednesday) which is rare to see this far out in
time. So the middle of next week will bear watching as PWATs are
progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch neighborhood by Tuesday into
Thursday.

The associated cold front approaches Wednesday night and the cold
front moves through on Thursday, continuing the chances for
unsettled weather through at least this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore into this morning. A frontal
system then moves through later today into tonight.

Mainly VFR. Chances for MVFR cigs and vsbys Sunday afternoon
into Sunday evening with potential for showers and
thunderstorms. PROB30 has been added for TSRA late
afternoon/evening today. MVFR chances increase into Sunday
night, but a lot of uncertainty on whether showers will linger
late into the night or not.

Winds tonight will generally be VRB or light out of the SW.
S/SW winds increase to 10-15 kt Sunday afternoon with gusts up
to around 20 kt. There is a chance gusts may be more occasional.
Winds diminish early tonight as directions turn NW. Late into
the night, winds become light and variable at some terminals.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

PROB30s for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.

Gusts may end up being more occasional this afternoon.

Uncertainty surrounding how quickly winds diminish tonight.

Uncertainty on whether showers will linger late into the night
or not.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers likely. A
chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers.
Showers likely early.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail this weekend and into early next
week with ocean seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft. High pressure settling
over the waters will result in a weak pressure gradient, and thus
light winds and diminished seas.

Occasional/brief gusts to 25 kt are possible late Sunday into Sunday
night likely associated with the NY Bight coastal jet.

Marginal small craft conditions become more likely Wednesday night
into Thursday with seas likely building to 4 to 5 ft in an
increasing southerly flow.

Rip Currents:

There is a low risk of rip current development through the rest of
today with light flow and SE swells around 2 ft. Increasing S-SW
winds and building seas to 3 ft Sunday afternoon will increase the
risk to moderate along local ocean beaches. The risk returns to low
on Monday as the flow lightens and swells fall to around 2 ft once
again.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DR/MW