948
FXUS61 KOKX 052014
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
414 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches the area Friday before passing
through on Saturday. Weak high pressure then briefly follows
for Sunday followed by a series of weak lows passing to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. A slow moving frontal
system will then work across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Mostly sunny skies this afternoon will continue to facilitate
temperatures remaining in he 80s through the evening, gradually
cooling off overnight. Ample instability is present for the
northern portions of the area, but lack of a surface trigger is
preventing convection from developing on a widespread scale.
Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon and
early evening but once the sun sets and strong surface heating
ceases, the chance for any showers or storms drops off
dramatically. Lows tonight will be warm, in the middle to upper
60s for most and in the low 70s for the NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large-scale ridging over the area shifts offshore tomorrow with
subtle lowering heights aloft as mid-level troughing pushes into the
Great Lakes region. Downstream of the surface cold front, several
pre-frontal troughs are expected to be the focus for convection for
the next couple of days. Generally, mostly to partly sunny skies
Friday is expected to allow ample surface heating and the
development of instability on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg or higher
for interior portions of the area. Despite the ample instability,
there will be fairly little shear (20kt or less) with fairly slow
mid-level flow.

Additionally, a strong seabreeze is expected to develop under the
light synoptic flow and should be able to move deep into the
northern portions of the CWA. While this may partially be a trigger
for storms to develop, south of the seabreeze, the cooler air off of
the ocean will stabilize the lower atmosphere, preventing convection
from being able to sustain itself. As such, a good portion of the
CAMs have the strongest and most numerous convection north of the
CWA, though the LHV and CT remain in the marginal risk for severe
storms, which remains possible but mainly for any storms prior
to the seabreeze passage. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s once
again, though any spots reaching 90 should be limited if any.

Residual convection may move into northern and western portions of
the CWA during the evening but once surface heating shuts off,
convection should be on a rapidly weakening trend.

The cold front approaches the area Friday night from the west that
will result in a cloudier sky for Saturday. Models differ a bit as
to how much residual convection will be around by Saturday morning,
but either way, cloud cover should limit the amount of surface
heating taking place on Saturday. This should limit any stronger to
severe convection to more of showers with embedded convection.

Given the general slower storm motion with possible repeated rounds
of convection, WPC has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. This
may result in local hydrologic concerns, though widespread issues
are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Stayed close to the  NBM with global models in good overall
agreement with the large scale mass fields. However, there are
some timing and placement issues as can be expected at this
juncture in time. At the start of the period, shortwave ridging
will pass through the area on Sunday with weak surface high
pressure. There is some uncertainty with the location of a
weak surface low passing to the south Sunday night into Monday
morning. The 12Z GFS is far enough to the south to keep the area
dry, while the ECMWF is far enough north to bring a high
probability of rainfall into the region. For the time, NBM has
a 20-30 percent chance of showers and/or rain during this time,
but no higher than a 10 percent chance of rainfall amounts greater
than 0.50". For the rest of Monday through the first half Tuesday
rain chances will be low, but then increase as a frontal system
works into the area. The best chance at this time looks to be
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability is marginal at this time
with strengthening deep-layer shear as an upper trough approaches
from the Great Lakes. The latter of which will drive a cold
front through the area toward daybreak Wednesday with drier air
to follow for midweek.

Much of the period will feature weak onshore flow, intervals of
clouds, and rain chances. This will keep daytime highs mainly
in the 70s Sunday into Tuesday with lows warming into the lower
60s during this time. Humidity will be on the rise as well.
Temperatures will warm Wednesday into Thursday with a westerly
surface wind component and building heights aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore into this evening, while a cold front
slowly approaches tonight into Friday.

VFR conditions mainly prevail through the TAF period. Can`t
completely rule out a shower or thunderstorm late this afternoon at
KSWF as well as a shower tonight, but confidence remains too low to
include in TAF. Possible brief MVFR/IFR well east of NYC terminals
towards KGON early Friday morning in stratus/fog.

SW winds around 10kt through late afternoon, but a little stronger
for KLGA and KJFK closer to 12-13kt at times. Winds then become
lighter this evening, veering more SW. Stronger southerly sea
breezes are anticipated and develop earlier on Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Sea breeze meanders within a few miles of KEWR and KTEB during this
afternoon - winds could potentially prevail SW, SE or vary between
the two directions at times until 21-22z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon: Mainly VFR, with the chance of showers/tstms
potentially resulting in brief MVFR/IFR for NYC terminals and points
north and west later in the afternoon.

Friday night: Pockets of MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms.

Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of tstms.
Patchy fog early Saturday.

Sunday: Mainly VFR during the day, with sub-VFR possible at night in
showers and low clouds.

Monday: Mostly VFR, with pockets of sub-VFR possible in showers.

Tuesday: Sub-VFR likely in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves are expected to remain generally below SCA levels on
all waters through at least late Friday night. Waves approach 5 feet
on the ocean early Saturday morning.

Thereafter, expect sub-advisory conditions through the middle
of next week. Waves of low pressure passing to the south and
a southerly swell will keep seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft. Chances
increase for marginal SCA conditions for seas around 5 ft Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through Saturday,
although thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain Friday
and possibly Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night may produce at
least minor nuisance flooding. Low confidence at this time regarding
potential impacts this far ahead in time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk thru Fri with waves
generally in the 2-3 ft range but winds mainly aob 10kt.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...