167
FXUS61 KOKX 231430
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the northeast coast continues to drift
offshore through Saturday night. A cold front approaches Sunday
evening and moves slowly through the area late Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure then gradually builds in for the middle
to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure was drifting off the northeast coast, and
will continue to drift eastward through today. Clear to mostly
clear conditions are expected today with temperatures near
seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large upper closed low and trough across central and eastern
Canada, extending into the upper midwest, will move slowly
eastward through Monday. At the surface a cold front associated
with surface low pressure north of the Great Lakes will be slow
to progress eastward through Sunday, as the flow nearly become
parallel to the front. There will be a little increase in the
forward speed Sunday night as a wave possibly develops on the
front along the Delmarva. With the slower progression of the
upper low and surface front precipitation becomes delayed moving
into the area for Sunday, and will be mainly late in the day and
into Sunday evening. There is an increase in precipitable
waters, up to 1.5 inches, and will a slow eastward storm motion
a few showers and thunderstorms have the potential of producing
briefly heavy rainfall. By late Monday the front is likely to be
east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Mainly dry conditions Monday night through Friday.

* Near normal temperatures Monday, then a slight cooldown to
  below normal highs from Tuesday onward.

There has been no significant change to the forecast thinking for
the extended period. Global models remain in decent agreement.
Synoptic-scale ridging pushes east of the area Sunday allowing
for a deep southwest flow to develop ahead of a deepening closed
upper low over eastern Canada. This low over eastern Canada
extends an h5 trough over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS then
remains over the east for much of the rest of the extended
timeframe. This will keep the local area in predominately
west/southwest flow aloft for much of the week.

A cold front pushes offshore by early Tuesday. High pressure
then builds back in from the Central Plains, for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure slides offshore into tonight. A cold front
approaches Sunday.

Mainly VFR through the period. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is
possible early Sun AM.

SW flow around 10 kt late this morning becomes S 10-15g20kt for
most terminals into the afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt likely for
KJFK and KLGA in the late aft and early eve with coastal jet
formation. City terminals remain near 10 kt overnight, with a
few outlying terminals decreasing to 5 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

S winds gusting above 20 kt this afternoon may arrive sooner than
depicted in TAFs by 1-2 hours.

Below average confidence in MVFR ceilings arrival / occurrence
just before and after 12z Sun.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday and Monday: Scattered showers Sun PM through Mon PM, isolated
tstm possible in the aft/eve. MVFR cigs possible Sun AM, and Sun
night into Mon AM.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain on the ocean waters into
Saturday evening, with the E long period swells slow to
subside and combined with Sat aft/eve coastal jet formation.

Ocean seas then fall below SCA levels for late Saturday night.
Conditions then remain below advisory levels for all waters
into mid next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high risk for rip currents continues through Sunday for the
Atlantic Ocean beaches as residual long period 3 to 4 ft easterly
swell will be slow to subside, combined with a 1-2 ft southerly wind
wave. The High surf advisory has been allowed to end with the surf
still elevated but now below criteria. However, some additional
minor beach erosion and escarpment remains possible for today`s high
tides with a west to east sweeping surf of 3 to 5 ft.

Localized minor coastal flooding remains possible for perhaps a few
locations in the back bays of Nassau this morning, with perhaps a
few more gauges reaching minor benchmarks for this evening`s high
tide also in Nassau. Have chosen to discontinue the statements which
were previously in effect for SW Suffolk, Westchester, and Fairfield
CT as water levels have underachieved some on the previous tide and
the new blend of TWL forecast falls below minor benchmarks for
today`s high tides at these locations.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...