672
FXUS61 KOKX 200231
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the area tonight. High pressure
builds in behind it for Sunday into Monday. High pressure exits
east on Monday. A frontal system in southern Canada sends a warm
front through Monday night followed by a cold front late
Tuesday. Thereafter, weak high pressure remains in effect
through Thursday. Another frontal system is expected to impact
us Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Forecast largely on track. The cold front located just north of
the area will continue to shift south through the area over the
next several hours. The front should be offshore shortly after
midnight. Earlier weak instability has diminished per
mesoanalysis. Isolated to scattered showers may accompany the
front, mainly across the interior, but this activity will
likely weaken as it moves further south and east through
midnight.

The passage of the front will allow temperatures to drop into
the 50s prior to daybreak. However, this is still well above
normal for this time of year, with lows typically in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry, but gusty day on Sunday thanks to cold air advection behind the
cold front. NW winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph.
Although cooler conditions are expected, temperatures will still be
above normal for this time of year, in the 60s for much of the
forecast area, except 50s along the immediate coat and Twin
Forks of Long Island.

Upper level ridges approaches from the west Sunday night as the
center of high pressure moves overhead. This will be a good night
for radiational cooling. Undercut guidance by several degrees for
many outlying locations. Frost is possible for these areas, with
lows in the 30 for those areas. Lows in the 40s expected
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A surface and upper low move into the Great Lakes Monday as
high pressure shifts offshore to our east. Dry weather mainly
expected on Monday, but increasing clouds late in the day.
Monday night the low over the Great Lakes shifts into southern
Ontario sending a warm front through our area then a cold front
later on Tuesday as the low shifts into Quebec.

Cloud cover is expected to increase Monday ahead of the warm front.
It should still be a cool day on Monday with highs in the low-60s to
upper-50s. A warmer Monday night is expected with the warm front
passage with lows Monday night in the upper-40s to mid-50s.
Temperatures climb further on Tuesday with highs in the mid/upper-
70s except for areas to the east cooler due to marine-influence.

Isolated to scattered showers are primarily expected Monday night,
clearing west to east into Tuesday.

Thereafter, dry weather is expected Tuesday night through Thursday
night with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies under weak high
pressure.

The high moves east on Friday, with another shortwave/low pressure
system approaching for late Friday into the weekend. Mainly looking
at just chance POPs (30-35 percent) late Friday into the weekend for
now.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front moves across the terminals tonight followed by
high pressure building in through Sunday.

VFR. A few showers are possible this evening.

SW winds 8-12 kt this evening. Winds will veer towards the W
after 03z and then WNW-NW behind the cold front passage 05-07z.
Winds will then remain NW on Sunday and will generally be 15-20
kt with gusts 25-30 kt in the morning. Winds gradually weaken in
the afternoon with gusts likely ending by evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An isolated shower possible through 05z.

Occasional gust around 25 kt possible through 05z.

Timing of wind shift overnight may be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR, then MVFR or lower possible at night with a chance of
showers.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers early. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt
possible.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA on the ocean waters will continue overnight as waves slowly
diminish, but remain above 5 ft. They will likely come down
from west to east Sunday morning into the early afternoon with
high pressure building in.

Marginal SCA conditions possible on the ocean waters Monday Night
into Tuesday morning ahead of cold frontal passage. Otherwise,
conditions will remain below SCA levels Tuesday afternoon through
Friday with a relatively weak pressure gradient over the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Marginally elevated wildfire spread threat Sunday.

Dry conditions remain. There is potential for scattered showers
N&W of NYC this evening, and isolated showers elsewhere. A
widespread wetting rain is not expected.

Highs in the 60s on Sunday, with northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph
with gusts 20 to 30 mph and min RH values in the mid 20 percent
range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...JP/DS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JP/BR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR