794
FXUS61 KOKX 011115
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
715 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic coast today followed by
high pressure building in for late today into the start of the
weekend. The high settles over the region into the first half of
next week, and possibly into the later half of the week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As a frontal boundary gets further south and southeast today, low
pressure along the coast south of the area will begin to push
offshore. Showers will linger this morning, mainly across eastern
and southeastern portions of the area. Otherwise, clouds will linger
for a good portion of the day, especially further east. Some partial
clearing takes place this afternoon across western and northern
portions of the area. A big difference today as far as temperatures
and the humidity. Temperatures today will be a good 10 to 15 degrees
cooler than yesterday, especially further south across the area
where it warmest yesterday. A northeast wind will remain gusty as a
tight pressure gradient persists through the first half of the day
due to high pressure to the northwest and low pressure and a frontal
boundary to the south. The gradient begins to relax later in the
afternoon, thus the wind gusts will start to become more occasional
and decrease some. Temperatures will actually average a good 7 to 10
degrees below average with mainly middle 70s for daytime highs due
to clouds for a good portion of the day and a northeast flow.

For tonight as high pressure over the Great Lakes builds down, skies
begin to clear. With the winds diminishing look for temperatures to
fall into the middle and upper 50s late at night across the interior
and more rural locales. Otherwise temperatures settle into the lower
and middle 60s closer to the coast as dewpoint readings get down
mostly into the drier 50s towards daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A wonderful weather weekend is on tap with a large dome of high
pressure being in control with a light northerly flow to begin the
weekend for Saturday. Expect plenty of sunshine both days this
weekend with cooler 850 mb temperatures look for most places to get
into the upper 70s to around 80 on Saturday. For Sunday as the air
mass modifies some it gets a few degrees warmer as temperatures get
back to normal with mainly lower and middle 80s for daytime highs
with light winds. Dew point readings will remain fairly comfortable
with a nice break from the oppressive humidity levels from earlier
in the week. Temperatures at night will be primarily be in the 60s,
with some 50s in the non urban locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure and zonal flow aloft will result in dry
weather and seasonable temperatures through at least Tuesday.
Thereafter, some guidance continue to bring a trough near the region
which could lead to unsettled weather in the later part of the week.
However, the majority of available guidance seems to be backing off
on this scenario, instead trending drier with high pressure holding
as the trough looks weaker and remains further north.

Followed the NBM during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure begins to build in this afternoon, then remains in
control tonight into tomorrow.

Showers may linger through 13-14Z before clearing. MVFR
conditions are expected to continue into morning, clearing up by
20Z, give or take a few hours. VFR will then remain in place
tonight into tomorrow.

NNE winds 10-15 kts with gusts to around 20-25 kts through the
morning. Gusts may occasional. Winds diminish after 20Z,
becoming light from the north and possibly variable by late in
the evening or early tonight.


  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR to VFR improvement may be off by a few hours in the TAFs,
so amendments are possible.

Gusts in TAFs might end up being more occasional.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions remain in place into the early afternoon for
the non-ocean waters. Small craft seas should remain in place not
only through today and this evening, but also into Saturday morning
for the ocean waters. Towards Saturday afternoon sub advisory
conditions are expected to prevail on the ocean. Thereafter, sub
advisory conditions are expected on all waters into the middle of
next week as high pressure remains in control.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a high rip current risk through this evening for the
ocean beaches predominantly from a strong E to W longshore
current from 5-7ft ENE wind waves. The risk then decreases to
moderate on Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...