166
FXUS61 KOKX 230226
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
926 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered to the south of the area through
Sunday, then moves offshore Sunday night into Monday. A weak
cold front moves through Tuesday night. Weak high pressure
briefly returns Wednesday before a quick moving frontal system
likely affects the region Wednesday might into Thursday. This
will be followed by a series of cold fronts passing through the
region Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Forecast largely on track into the overnight with just some
minor adjustments to temperatures, dew points, and winds to
reflect the latest observational trends.

Otherwise, a relatively quiet period heading into Monday with
series of short wave troughs moving through in the WNW upper
level flow aloft. The first of which will send a surface trough
across the area tonight, preceded by some mid and high level
cloudiness. This will result in a SW surface flow that veers
back to the west late tonight. There is some uncertainty due to
the cloud cover and winds staying up a bit as to how much some
of the normally colder spots radiate. Regardless, expect lows
close to normal, ranging from the lower 20s inland, and 25-30 at
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect temperatures to gradually warm Sunday into Monday as low
pressure passes over central Canada Sunday and then north of
the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada on Monday. Any
precipitation with the system will stay well north and west of
the area. After mainly clear skies for Sunday, warm advection
ahead of the system will allow increasing mid and high level
cloudiness for Sunday night. Conditions will then clear Monday
with the warm front passing well to the north and west.

High temperatures will be close to normal Sunday in the upper
30s to lower 40s, then into the lower and mid 40s Monday. Lows
Monday morning will range from the mid to upper 20s across most
locations, except around freezing for the NYC metro. The latter
is slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures will likely run 5 to 10 degrees above normal Tuesday
  through Thursday. A return to more seasonable temps for Fri/Sat,
  and possibly below normal to end the weekend.

* Mainly dry conditions are expected through mid week. A quick
  moving frontal system will likely affect the region Wed Night into
  Thursday.

Quasi-zonal upper flow through early next week with PAC jet riding
the northern tier of the CONUS around expansive polar trough across
southern Canada. Within this flow, a series of shortwaves will
traverse the northern tier of the US towards the region. First
shortwave of note (PAC origin), will eject from the Rockies into
northern plains Monday and towards the region by Tuesday Night. The
result will be a quick moving frontal system. The trend with this
system is drier, being a progressive and weak system with limited
precip (rain) potential. Latest ECMWF and ensemble has also trended
more suppressed with the potential interaction of this northern
stream shortwave with a southern branch shortwave, keeping
developing offshore low pressure well se of the region. This is
inline with GEFS and CMC ensembles.

The main implication of this system will be just a brief
interruption of amplified SW flow into the NE US on Wednesday, but
otherwise a continuation of temps several degrees above seasonable
levels Tue thru Thu. Potential for temps to make a run at 60 degrees
for NJ metro on Tuesday with enough sunshine.

Thereafter, general model agreement in further longitudinal
amplification of troughing across the Eastern US for late week
period in response to a more vigorous PAC shortwave diving through
the Central US into the southern Mid Atlantic. ECE and GEFS coming
into better agreement with this trough amplitude/timing, and
depicting a progressive and mild frontal system moving through the
region Thu/Thu night. A shot of Canadian air and return to more
seasonable temps on Friday, with perhaps a few rain/snow showers as
trough axis moves through.

Better general agreement in polar troughing exerting more influence
on the NE US for the second half of the weekend into early next
week, in wake of a clipper system tracking through southern
Ontario/Quebec and northern New England on Saturday. This would
signal a return to below normal temps during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains centered to our south through
Sunday.

SW winds around 10 kt or less the next few hours with wind
speeds becoming less than 10 kt after 05z. Winds continue to
veer to the W Sunday morning with speeds increasing to around
10 kt by late morning and afternoon. Winds diminish Sunday
evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind speeds may be a few kt higher at times through 06z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night-Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Chance afternoon showers and MVFR north of the city
terminals, otherwise VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Rain showers and MVFR possible. Mixed rain/snow
showers possible at KSWF.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are on tap through Monday with high pressure
to the south through Sunday, then retreating offshore early
next week. SW-W winds tonight will increase through the early
morning hours and may bump 20-25 kt on the ocean waters for a
short time with seas building to 3 to 4 ft. Conditions then
subside Sunday into Monday.

Potential for marginal S/SW SCA gusts on the ocean waters Mon Night
into Tuesday in the wake of warm frontal passage and ahead of
approaching trough. Potential for a triple point low has decreased
over the last 24 hours, limiting the duration magnitude of S/SW
winds, limiting potential for seas building to SCA Mon Night/Tue.

Otherwise, likely return to sub SCA conds Tue Night into Wed as weak
high pressure builds. Next chance for SCA conds on the ocean late
Wed Night into Thu with strengthening SSW flow ahead of next
approaching frontal system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the the end of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW