479
FXUS61 KOKX 172005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area tonight. High pressure
builds in Friday then moves offshore during Saturday with a
warm front moving to the north. A cold front moves through the
area late Sunday. High pressure builds in for early next week. A
frontal boundary will be nearby for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The area remains in the warm sector of a large low pressure system
this afternoon. The cold front associated with this low pressure
passing to the north of the area will push through this evening and
overnight. Given the ample heat and moisture over the area today,
moderate amounts of instability will be present this afternoon.
Instability combined with 25-35kt of 0-6km shear should be ample
enough to allow for the potential for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms, should any storms develop.

Most of the strongest forcing associated with this cold frontal
passage will be north of the area. Despite this, CAMs are
consistently showing isolated to at most scattered convection that
moves into the area from the northwest this afternoon. SPC has much
of the western half of the area in a marginal risk for severe storms
this evening, with the primary threat being gusty winds. Any storms
that do develop should weaken and dissipate by or shortly after
sunset.

Additionally a heat advisory remains in effect through 10PM
this evening for heat index values of 98-103 for much of the
area.

The cold front will push through the area tonight allowing for
a shift of the wind to the NW. This will allow for drying of the
airmass and lowering of the dew points into the 60s. This cold
frontal passage will allow the hot and humid conditions to end.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s with the
warmest locations being along the coast and for the NYC Metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Friday, the area will be behind the departing cold front to the
east. High pressure over the Great Lakes regions will gradually
build into the area during the day Friday and into Friday night.
This high pressure will keep the area dry with skies being mostly
clear to partly cloudy. Highs will be in the low to middle 80s.

Lower dew points into the low 60s to upper 50s will allow for
much more comfortable conditions. Lows Friday night will be able
to drop into the 60s for most with upper 50s possible for the
far interior NW portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Near zonal upper flow Saturday gives way to a upper trough
passing to the north Sunday into early Monday. At the surface
high pressure will be moving offshore Saturday with a warm front
moving across the region. Weak surface low pressure passing
through the Great Lakes and into upstate New York and into New
England Saturday night into Sunday will bring a cold front
across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
later Saturday into Sunday. Sunday will see a return to warm and
humid conditions with heat indices 90 to 94 across much of the
region, and dew points in the lower 70s. And with high
precipitable water values any scattered thunderstorms could
produce briefly heavy rainfall. Timing of the cold front passage
remains consistent and looks to be Sunday late
afternoon/evening. Much drier air returns behind the cold front
with temperatures returning to more seasonal normals Monday
through Wednesday. The cold front that moved through
Sunday/Sunday night will remain south of the region, and
possibly return north as a warm front later Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing warm and humid conditions back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front is nearing the area from the west and north today from
a low pressure system over southern Ontario. This front will pass
through the area this evening. High pressure builds in from the west
tonight into tomorrow.

Mainly VFR is expected through the TAF period. MVFR is possible in
SHRA/TSRA roughly 20Z-02Z today (late afternoon to early
evening). Coverage looks sparse and location is uncertain, so
have kept out of the TAFs except for a TEMPO for TSRA at KSWF
20Z-00Z. Its possible these may be added in amendments later,
should confidence increase.

SW winds will continue to increase into the afternoon, 15-20 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt. Can`t rule out a stray gust up to 30 kt at the NYC
metros. Following FROPA, winds become NW mid to late evening at 10-
15 kts with gusts of around 20 kts becoming occasional. Outlying
terminals may drop below 10 kts overnight. Kept gusts out of TAFs
tomorrow, with winds NW/NNW around 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

SW winds could briefly gust up to 30 kt late this afternoon.

An isolated shower or tstm may be possible from about 19Z-02Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night-Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday: Showers likely, chance of tstms. MVFR or
lower cond likely.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Strengthening SW flow will bring a period of marginal SCA
conditions to the ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet late this
afternoon into the overnight. The remaining waters may see some
occasional near shore gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. High
pressure will build in on Friday, with conditions remaining
below SCA thresholds from then through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for rip current development remain moderate this
evening, and surf height will be 2-3 ft. The moderate risk will
continue Friday and Saturday, with winds from the NW-W and a
remaining S swell Friday, and S winds and a southerly swell
Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET