355
FXUS61 KOKX 301904
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
304 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will prevail from the Upper Midwest
east into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states through the middle
of next week. Then Canadian low pressure will bring a front
through late Thursday into late Friday. High pressure regains
control into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
An upper low over the St. Lawrence River Valley tracks east into
Maine this evening. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
Great Lakes continues to expand east into the area. This will result
in a dry and cool rest of the day for the area with high
temperatures likely not getting out of the 70s. This is about 3 to 5
degrees below normal. Lows tonight will range in the mid to upper
40s well north and west of NYC and the Pine Barrens region, where a
blend of MAV/MET MOS was used. NBM looked good for all other
locations with lower and mid 50s for most spots and upper 50s to
around 60 for the NYC metro. Lows will be close to 10 degrees below
normal in some cases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low/trough continues to translate east and out into
the North Atlantic this period. However, energy at the base of
the departing upper trough gets cutoff as heights builds aloft
and upper level ridging expands east across Canada. This will
leave a weak upper low across the northern Mid Atlantic region.
However, with a moisture-starved airmass, expect dry conditions.
Surface high pressure continues to build into the area during
this time.

Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 70s to around 80.
This is a few degrees below normal. Lows will creep up a bit.
There is some uncertainty regarding the extent of radiational
cooling for Sunday night in particular as models suggest cirrus
moving in overnight. NBM was generally followed both nights
with some minor local adjustments.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Tuesday and Wednesday,
with dry and near or just below seasonal temperatures.

Our next chance for rainfall will be with a frontal system near
week`s end. Cloud cover will begin to increase late Wednesday into
Thursday. At the same close a closed upper-low/trough will dig into
the Great Lakes, leading to falling heights aloft over the region.

A cold front will approach and pass the area late Thursday into late
Friday. Rain looks likely with this front given available guidance,
some of which brings the base of a negative tilt trough through the
area. However, timing of FROPA is still still in disagreement.

High pressure looks to return behind the front and build into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds southwest of the terminals today and into
the region thru Sunday.

VFR. Generally a NW/NNW flow around 10 kt, with gusts into the
mid/upper teens possible from this afternoon. Winds become 10
kt or less after 00Z Sunday. There is a low chance of a late day
afternoon seabreeze at KJFK, KBDR, KGON, and KISP. Chances are
higher for KISP and KGON. Winds shift toward the E and SE late
Sunday morning into the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional. Chance of a late day seabreeze at
KJFK

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR in the morning. MVFR or lower in light showers
with isolated thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build across the waters this weekend into
the middle of next week. Conditions will generally remain below
SCA levels during this time.

Seas may return to small craft levels at the end of next week
as a frontal system approaches the waters and low pressure
passes nearby.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low rip current risk continues at ocean beaches through Sunday
with waves 1-2 ft at 5-7 seconds. The risk likely remains low on
Monday despite a slight increase in waves to 2-3 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$