383
FXUS61 KOKX 170253
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1053 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to weaken and push offshore tonight. A cold
front and pre-frontal trough move through the area Sunday late
afternoon through the evening. High pressure builds back in
thereafter from the north. High pressure remains to the northeast
on Tuesday with a frontal system approaching from the west. The
frontal system stalls west of the area before being absorbed into
Hurricane Erin which passes well to the east offshore. High
pressure builds back into the area toward the end of the week. Please
refer to National Hurricane Center forecasts for further
information on Erin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As high pressure shifts offshore, very weak surface troughing can be
made out near western portions of the area. Onshore flow
continues tonight and some low stratus is expected, mainly over
LI and southern CT, so this will work against any potential
radiational cooling here. Followed the NBM for lows, upper 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Some stratus is expected in the morning on Sunday and will
gradually scatter out. A S/SW flow picks up ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. Moisture continue
to increase along with temperatures reaching the mid 80s to low
90s. This combination will lead to Heat Index values of 95 to
around 99 for many. The area will likely be able to destabilize
to about 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE again ahead of the approaching
features. Showers and thunderstorms look to fire up well to our
west during the late morning or early afternoon and then head
this way. While overall forcing is better than today, both
instability and shear are rather weak. However, there may be
just enough for some isolated storms to become severe. The main
threat in any of these cells will be damaging winds. The severe
threat is strongest north and west of NYC and will likely end
after 00z. However, showers may linger through the night.

High pressure builds in thereafter. A tightening pressure
gradient late Sunday night into Monday morning will bring a
gusty N/NE flow. This looks to peak Monday morning with 20 to 25
mph gusts. 30 mph gusts may be possible for eastern LI and the
immediate coast of LI. With the cooler airmass building in, and
some broken clouds, we likely do not make it out of the 70s on
Monday.

Winds weaken Monday night but likely not enough for ideal
radiational cooling. Still, it will be a dry and cool night
given the airmass, upper 50s across the interior and 60s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A subtle mid-level ridging over the area on Tuesday will begin to
break down as a frontal system approaches the area from the west and
Hurricane Erin moves northward well to the southeast. High pressure
in SOutheastern Canada will continue to allow a surface ridge nosing
in along the New England coast which will provide for a persistent
E/NE flow. This direction of the flow will continue to allow for
below average temperatures through the middle of the week with highs
each day through Thursday in the middle to possibly upper 70s.

As the frontal system approaches Tuesday, it slows down as it runs
into the surface ridge and may stall west of the area. This may
result in some shower or isolated storm development to our west
which may move through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the
onshore flow and the relatively cool surface temperatures, the
atmosphere is expected to be largely capped, which should
largely prevent thunderstorm development.

The surface ridging breaks down a bit as Hurricane Erin`s northward
approach alters the mid-level flow. The mid-level energy from the
frontal system will translate over the area Wednesday and early
Thursday which may result in additional shower development. This
energy eventually becomes absorbed into Hurricane Erin as it
recurves northeastward into the North Atlantic.

The only impacts anticipated locally from Hurricane Erin are for the
ocean and adjacent shorelines related to high seas, dangerous surf
and rip currents, and possible minor coastal flooding and beach
erosion. For official forecasts on track and strength of Erin,
please refer to the National Hurricane Center.

Global models are in fairly decent agreement that surface high
pressure builds into the area by the end of the week and into the
first half of the weekend. Some mid-level energy may approach the
area during the second half of the weekend which may result in some
additional shower or storm activity.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Offshore high pressure weakens with a cold front approaching early
Sunday afternoon, and moving through Sunday evening.

Mostly VFR tonight, but still a chance of MVFR cigs developing
east of the city terminals.

Any MVFR cigs should scatter out by late in the morning Sunday,
with primarily VFR conds through the day. Threat of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms, but only enough confidence to
include PROB30 NW of the city at this time.

Light S-SW to variable winds tonight. A SW flow develops early
Sunday morning with gusts up to around 20kt in the afternoon.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of MVFR cigs developing for a few hours late
tonight/early morning Sunday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Potential for MVFR or lower with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms early evening. Otherwise, VFR.

Monday: VFR. A slight chance of showers along the coast. Winds
NE G20-25 kt along the coast during the day.

Tuesday: VFR during the day. A chance of showers at night with MVFR
possible.

Wednesday: A chance of showers with MVFR at times.

Thursday: VFR. Wind NE G20-25 kt east of the NYC terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected on the waters through
the weekend. Winds and seas increase early Monday morning with a
gusty E/NE flow behind a cold frontal passage. SCA conditions
expected on the ocean waters with 5 ft seas and 25 to 30 kt gusts.
As of right now, sub 25 kt gusts are forecast on all other waters,
but the upward trend in the wind forecast may continue. Seas remain
elevated through Monday night as swells from Hurricane Erin move
into the area.

For Tuesday through Wednesday night, SCA criteria easily met for the
ocean zones with seas trending higher as long period swells build.
Wind gusts forecast could reach 25 kt Wed into Wed night. Most of
the non ocean waters should remain below SCA criteria except for
Long Island Sound E of the mouth of the CT River, where some higher
seas up to 5 ft are forecast Wed night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next
weekend at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for rip currents should increase to moderate on
Sunday, with a stronger S-SW wind up to 10-15 kt with a longer
period 2-ft SE swell at 10 sec.

A moderate rip current risk is forecast for Monday though it was
borderline high risk due to increasing swell and waves toward
the afternoon. Thereafter there is potential for dangerous surf
and rip currents next week, mainly from Tuesday onward, as
building long period swells from Erin arrive. Minor coastal
flooding and beach erosion may also become possible during this
time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC