039
FXUS61 KOKX 252030
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the area tonight, followed by a
cold frontal passage Wednesday night. The area will then remain
in between strong low pressure to the north and strong high
pressure to the south and west from Thanksgiving Day through
early Saturday. The high will build in for much of the weekend.
A cold front then impacts the area late in the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern half of the
country will send a frontal system toward the area. Rapidly
deepening low pressure will lift across the Great Lakes tonight
into Wednesday, sending a warm front through the area tonight
and a cold front Wednesday evening.

Rainfall amounts continue to trend up a bit with forecast
amounts anywhere from a few tenths across far western portions
of the Lower Hudson Valley, to around an inch along the coast.
Light overrunning rain will spread into the area from SW to NE
late this afternoon into this evening ahead of the warm front.
There could be some pockets of heavier rain later in the night
as the airmass destabilizes some ahead of the nose of a 50 kt
LLJ approaching from the south. However, not expecting
thunderstorms at this time.

The rain looks to come in 2 waves, first with the aforementioned
warm front, then with convection moving out of the TN Valley
later tonight. This will follow not too long after the warm
frontal rains. CAMs are all locking into this area as well as
the 12Z GFS and NAM. The GFS keeps the area to the south, so
there remains some uncertainty with the second round. NBM rain
chances have trended upward. The best chance at this time is
across eastern LI and SE CT. However, should this trend
northward continue, chances will increase elsewhere. For the
remainder of Wednesday, there could be scattered showers in the
warm sector ahead of the cold front.

Patchy fog is also likely tonight and could be more extensive
across the interior where winds are forecast to be lighter.

Southerly winds may gust up to 20 mph along the coast this
evening, however, a strengthening inversion will likely limit
the potential as the night progresses. Winds will then veer to
the SW behind the warm front.

Temperatures will drop little if any this evening, then start
to slowly rise through the night with the approach of the warm
front. Highs on Wednesday will be up around 60, which is about
10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front moves through during the evening hours Wednesday
with a chance of scattered showers. Strong cold advection will
then follow with gusty west winds up to 30 mph. These winds
will continue through Thursday night with continued cold
advection and cyclonic flow. Winds look to fall short of
advisory criteria at this time. Used NBM 90th percentile for
winds.

Stratocu will likely make it into area north and west of NYC
Thursday with even a few flurries and/or a brief snow shower
getting into far NW portions of the Lower Hudson Valley in the
evening.

Temperatures will drop into the 30s behind the cold front
Wednesday night and likely get know higher than the lower to mid
40s Thursday. Even with winds staying up Thursday night (limiting
radiational cooling), most locations will get to at or just
below freezing by daybreak Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Windy conditions continue through Friday night, with the peak
  being Friday. Widespread gusts up to 35-40mph are possible, with
  isolated gusts up to 45mph.

* Colder than normal temperatures expected through Saturday with
  highs in the lower/mid 40s and wind chills in the 30s.

* Mainly dry through at least the first half of this period, with
  confidence increasing in rain late in the weekend into early next
  week.

A large anomalous upper level low and trough will be overhead to
start Friday. At the surface, strong low pressure will be passing to
our north while strong high pressure sets up to our southwest. This
places the area in a tight pressure gradient and will bring windy
conditions through Friday night. Peak gusts look to be Friday in a
W/NW flow with deep mixing. The NBM and even now the NBM90th
percentile look too low with winds gusts based latest model
soundings and recent NBM verification in this type of regime. Still
thinking the forecast can trend up a bit more which would put the
area close to Advisory criteria for Friday. At this time though,
only isolated gusts up to Advisory criteria are expected.

The high builds in on Saturday and passes overhead Saturday evening.
A cold front then approaches the area and will bring the next
chances of rain late Sunday into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front approaches this evening and will move across the
region tonight. A cold front follows late Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

Rain will continue overspreading the area this evening.
Conditions will lower to MVFR this evening, then quickly to IFR
by 01-04z. Rain may become moderate at times before beginning
to taper off to light rain after 07-09z. The light rain may
transition to showers Wednesday morning. Conditions may also
lower to LIFR, especially around day break and could continue
through around 15z. Some gradual improvement is possible
thereafter with potential of VFR after 20z. A few scattered
showers remain possible Wednesday afternoon.

S-SE winds around 10 kt or less this evening. SE winds 10 kt or
less tonight become SSW after 06-09z. Some variability in wind
direction is possible Wednesday morning, especially away from
the coast.

LLWS 40-45 kt at 2kft expected at KJFK, KLGA. KBDR, KISP, and
KGON tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for timing of rain and lowering flight
categories this evening.

LLWS possible tonight at KEWR but confidence remains too low to
include in TAF.

Low confidence flight category forecast after 09z-16z Wednesday.
LIFR ceilings may prevail during this time frame.

Low chance for an isolated thunderstorm Wednesday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon: MVFR likely, locally IFR with a chance of
showers. Improvement to VFR possible.

Wednesday Night: Becoming VFR. Increasing W winds near 15-20 kt
with gusts near 25-30 kt late Wednesday night.

Thursday: VFR. W flow 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt.

Friday: VFR. WNW flow 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt.

Saturday: VFR. NW flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower and rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale watch has been issued for the ocean waters Thursday night
into Friday.

A frontal system will impact the area tonight through Wednesday
night. S/SW winds will bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters
tonight as a warm front works move through. A cold frontal
passage then follows Wednesday night with SCA conditions developing
across the remaining waters with west winds gusting up to 30
kt. Gale force gusts are likely on the ocean Thursday night with
seas building to 6 to 11 ft, highest from Moriches inlet to
Montauk Point. Gale potential looks more marginal for the
remainder of the waters at this time.

A Gale Watch is in effect through Friday on the ocean waters with 35
to 40 kt gusts expected. Gale Conditions are possible on all other
waters, mainly during the day on Friday with 30 to 35 kt gusts.
Additionally, seas likely peak Friday at 7 to 10 feet on the ocean
waters and 5 to 7 feet on the LI Sound.

SCA conditions then likely linger through the first half of Saturday
before dropping below SCA criteria. The next shot at SCA looks to be
early next week with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF from tonight into Wed continues to trend up, with amounts
from around a few tenths of an inch across far western portions
of the Lower Hudson Valley, to around an inch at the coast. The
brunt of the rainfall will fall tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday
     for ANZ331-332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday
     for ANZ335-338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW