616
FXUS61 KOKX 191958
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control for early week. For Wednesday, high
pressure moves out into the Atlantic. A cold front approaches from
the west Wednesday night, moving across early Thursday. Another area
of high pressure gradually builds in from the west thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern tonight.
Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the
30s and 40s, with the NYC metro remaining in the 50s. The usually
colder spots, especially well north and west of NYC will see chance
for frost once again. Not sure the frost development will be
widespread enough for any headlines so have decided to hold off for
now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region to end the weekend, however a
southwesterly flow develops during the day Sunday. This will allow
temperatures to be a bit warmer than what get observed in the near
term. Expect temperatures on Sunday to climb into the lower and
middle 70s across much of the area. The only exception will be
across the far eastern portions of the CWA where highs may only
reach the upper 60s. Some of the models area hinting at a weak
trough passing over the area Sunday afternoon, this may result in
just a few clouds late Sunday afternoon into the evening. Otherwise,
expect a mostly sunny day.

For Sunday night, clear skies continue with generally light winds.
however with a warming trend underway, overnight lows only fall into
the 40s and 50s. A few isolated spots may fall into the upper 30s.
With the warmer conditions, frost will be much less likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main upper jet well north of the region early into the midweek,
followed by more of a dip in the jet going into late week. Mid
levels convey ridging Monday through Tuesday. Mid levels then show
ridging moving offshore for midweek as a shortwave moves across. A
longer wavelength mid level trough then moves in for late week.

At the surface, high pressure remains in control for early in the
week but will be moving out into the Atlantic Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A cold front then approaches from the west, eventually
moving across early Thursday. Then, airmass with origins in SW
Canada into North Central US starts to work its way into the region
thereafter into the start of next weekend. High pressure will make
its return.

The long term forecast period from Monday through the start of next
weekend does not have much of any rainfall in the forecast. Just a
slight chance with a cold front moving across late Wednesday night
into Thursday. Cold front with much westerly flow in atmosphere will
not have much moisture to work with. If any rain occurs, it will
probably be quite low amounts. Airmass will eventually become colder
by mid to late week. Temperatures trend from well above normal early
into mid week to closer to normal going into late week.

Used the NBM 90th percentile for high temperature forecast for
Monday and Tuesday. Substantial warm air advection expected. Used
the MEX guidance for low temperature forecast for Monday night and
Tuesday night to better capture radiational cooling with greater
spatial differences in temperature. Thereafter have NBM forecast for
temperatures with minor adjustments.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.

Light S-SSW flow this afternoon, especially near the coast, goes
light and variable at all terminals this evening and thru the
overnight. Light westerly flow develops by late Sunday AM, Sunday
afternoon, backing WSW or SW by late in the day.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions remain for the ocean waters through Sunday
afternoon due 5-6 ft seas. SCA is currently issued through this
timeframe. Sub-SCA levels for winds and seas expected for Sunday
night through Monday night under high pressure.

Mainly below SCA conditions for the forecast waters expected for the
marine long term forecast period. Only exception would be that there
could be some 5 ft ocean seas in outer ocean zones Thursday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Per collaboration with CT fire weather partners, BOX and ALY an
SPS is out for our CT counties due to recent dry weather and low
RH values today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM