297
FXUS61 KOKX 251447
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Tranquil weather with dry conditions, slightly below normal
temperatures and comfortable humidity through the weekend.

2) A slow moving frontal system may bring an extended period of
unsettled weather late Monday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mean troughing expected over the NE US this weekend, amplifying
over the East coast next week. At the surface, Canadian
Maritime high pressure remains in control through the weekend.

This will keep conditions dry, with slightly below normal
temperatures (as much as 5 degrees below normal) and comfortable
humidity levels. High temperatures will remain in the upper 70s
to mid 80s, and low temperatures in the upper 50s across the
interior and the Long Island pine barrens, and 60s for
city/coast on Saturday, with lows 3 to 5 degrees warmer Sunday
night into Monday morning.

With the weak pressure gradient, E-NE winds will remain fairly
light giving way to afternoon coastal sea breezes.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Models in general agreement with an Eastern US trough amplifying
down the US East Coast through the early to mid week time frame as
a series of weak shortwaves rotate through the western side of
Western US ridging, with potential closed upper low developing
over the NE US midweek.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches late Monday
into Tuesday, gradually crossing Wednesday. Scattered late day
shower/thunderstorm potential west of the Hudson River Monday.
Greatest potential for shower and embedded thunderstorms
activity for the entire area appears to be during Tuesday-
Wednesday time frame with potential low pressure development
along the front. Model spread exists on exact timing of closed
low and surface low withing the Tue-Thu timeframe. Even if
surface low pressure clears on Tuesday, could have lingering
aft/eve instability shra/tsra on Wed and Thu.

Inherently low predictability on details this far out, but the
slow movement of this system, shortwave forcing, and
moistening environment poses a low flash flood threat at this
time. The Weather Prediction Center has place the entire area in
a marginal threat for excessive rainfall for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Astronomical tides will be rising thru this period
as well. The anomalous upper low/cold pool does bring potential
for diurnally enhanced convection, but severe thunderstorm
potential would be predicated on development/track of surface
low pressure and extent of diurnal heating and instability
development. More details as the weekend progresses.

Gradually improving conditions likely for late week, but mean
troughing likely remains.

Near seasonable temps likely during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains nearby.

VFR.

NE/E winds less than 10 kt this morning will become ESE to SE
around 10 kt from late morning into this afternoon. Speeds could
be just over 10 kt at KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KBDR and possibly KGON in
the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may become more southerly than what is reflected in TAFs
this afternoon, otherwise unscheduled AMD are not expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: MVFR possible in the afternoon and evening. Chance of
showers and possibly a tstm from the NYC metros north/west.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely and
chance of tstms especially in the afternoon and evening. S
winds G15-20kt.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR with showers and possibly a tstm.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure over the waters and remaining nearby into
the weekend, a prolonged stretch of sub advisory conditions
expected through the weekend and to begin next week. That said,
persistent E flow 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this weekend will
likely have seas building to around 4ft, occasionally touching
5 ft.

Thereafter, SCA conditions may return to the ocean waters and
possibly to all waters Tue-Wed, but will be dependent on timing
of a frontal system and possible low development.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk within an E to W longshore current
regime is expected through the weekend, with a 1-2 ft SE wind
wave/swell, and gradually building 3-4 E wind wave/swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JE/DW
MARINE...JP