460
FXUS61 KOKX 200254
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1054 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system impacts the area on Wednesday. Hurricane Erin
will pass well to the southeast from Thursday into Friday,
bringing indirect but significant impacts along the shoreline.
High pressure will return by late week, then a cold front will
approach from the west from Sunday into Monday. Please refer to
NHC forecasts for further information on Hurricane Erin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Dangerous rips are occurring at area beaches. Please see the
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more details.

High pres remains centered N of the area tngt. This will keep a
lgt, cool E/ESE flow locked in. Streams of cu developing wwd
indicate the potential for marine stratus to develop overnight.
This, along with the wind, will limit radiational cooling a
bit. Nevertheless, the airmass is cold enough to produce lows
aob normal. Some llvl lift, possibly aided by speed convergence,
could allow for some pockets of lgt rain or dz to develop late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dangerous rip currents and high surf can be expected. Please
see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more details.

H5 trof approaches on Wed, and passes Wed ngt. Moisture will
increase ahead of the associated frontal boundary, with PWATS
around 2 inches advecting in. There does not appear to be a
significant tropical connection with Hurricane Erin attm per
moisture transport vectors, so this should be a limiting factor
for hvy rain potential. Regardless, the boundary will slow
across the area, and with upr support, shwrs and embedded isold
tstms are expected until the passage of the trof axis Wed ngt.
The slow/stalling nature of the front could lead to persistent
areas of rain, and this is where there will be a primarily
minor flood threat. Per the 12Z NAM and GFS, the best window for
activity is Wed aftn and eve as deep lift is maximized. Please
see the HYDROLOGY section for additional details.

Went with the NBM for temps, but highs could end up a little
lower as the NBM may not be catching up quickly enough with the
rainier fcst.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Indirect impacts from Erin are the main focus of the Long Term
as surf remains dangerous and cstl flooding impacts the area
Thu and Thu ngt. Again, please see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
section for more details.

Otherwise, winds will pick up, especially at the coasts, Thu and
Thu ngt as Erin makes its closes approach. Most areas will be
breezy, but parts of LI, especially the S Fork, could see some
gusts in the 30-40 mph range Thu aftn and eve. The gusty winds
ramp down quickly on Fri as Erin accelerates away from the
region and high pres builds in. Went with the 6Z CONSALL for
winds in the Thu/Thu ngt period instead of the lower NBM.

There could be some pockets of lgt rain or sprinkles early Thu
with llvl moisture still locked in, but subsidence will attempt
to dry things out thru the day. The NBM was used for the cloud
fcst, but it may be too optimistic compared to the deterministic
12Z modeling.

Went with the NBM Sat and beyond with little change to the
overall fcst thinking attm. Ridging at the sfc/aloft will build
in after Erin`s departure. As this ridge moves east another
frontal system will approach on Sunday and pass through on
Monday, with chance of showers and possibly a tstm.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure shifts east of New England tonight. A frontal
system approaches from the west Wednesday.

VFR through tonight, becoming MVFR/IFR on Wed with SHRA/TSRA.

E/SE flow under 10 kt thru the overnight. Similar direction and
speeds expected Wednesday, generally E or SE 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt possible.

Cigs lower into the morning, becoming MVFR toward 12Z or
shortly after at most terminals. Rain showers gradually develop
and increase in coverage later in the morning, prevailing by
mid afternoon with MVFR cigs and vsbys, and could go IFR at
times. Embedded TSRA possibly around during the afternoon and
evening as well. The showers continue through Wed night, and
additional PROB30 for TSRA may be needed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts on Wednesday may be more occasional.

Timing of flight categories declines may be off by a couple of
hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: IFR with SHRA, embedded TSRA possible. ESE gusts
up to 20 kt.

Thursday: Chance of showers in the morning with
MVFR/IFR cond still possible. NE winds increasing to 15G20-25kt
along the coast. Improving to VFR by evening.

Friday: VFR. NE-N winds 15G20-25kt in the morning.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean thru Wed ngt. A gale watch
has been issued for the ocean Thu and Thu ngt. Elsewhere, no
hazards are up, but a SCA may be needed for winds Thu and Thu
ngt. Swell may also get into the extreme ern portion of the
Sound Thu into Fri, with NWPS bringing waves to 7ft near Plum
Island.

A SCA will likely be needed on the ocean and possibly the
extreme ern Sound on Fri for seas. The SCA may be needed on the
ocean on Sun as well.

Please refer to National Hurricane Center forecasts for further
information on Erin.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a chance for areas of minor urban and poor drainage
flooding on Wed due to a slow moving frontal sys. In general,
around an inch of rainfall is expected across the area. However,
locally higher amounts of around 2 inches are possible if
persistent activity develops along the front. There will be a
low flash flood threat if tropical moisture from Erin makes it
into the area, with ern areas the most likely spots for this to
occur late Wed into Wed ngt attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current risk are in effect for all
Atlantic beaches and will likely continue to be extended with future
updates through the end of the week.

Life-threatening surf and rip currents expected for the rest of this
week as building long period swells from Erin continue, peaking
Thu/Fri. Surf heights could reach 10-15 ft from Thu afternoon and
continuing into early Fri morning, as large, very long period swells
(9-11 ft @ 15-17 sec) arrive nearly head on at the beaches.

The threat for beach flooding, beach erosion and escarpment and
areas of dune erosion will increase with successive high tides Tue
eve thru Thu night. Widespread areas of dune erosion are likely with
localized overwashes during the Thu evening and Fri morning high
tides. This high surf will be combined with elevated water levels as
we approach a new moon.

Surge guidance continues to play catch-up to the potential coastal
flood situation. A blend of bias-corrected PETSS 50% exceedance,
ETSS, and STOFS indicates widespread minor and locally moderate
flooding with the Thu night/Fri morning high tide cycles. PETSS 10%
exceedance and even a blend of 10%/50% exceedances are both higher,
indicating worst-case potential for widespread moderate flooding
with the Thu evening and/or Fri morning high tide cycles.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...