209
FXUS61 KOKX 181902
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
302 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added slight to low end chance PoPs for the rest of the
afternoon into early this evening with potential for isolated
moderate rain showers associated with surface trough.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential for periods of rain Thursday through the weekend.
Impacts appear to be limited at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front approaches Wednesday and pushes through Wednesday
night. It will then stall over or near the area through the
weekend. Shortwave energy pivoting through the base of a
longwave trough will likely generate multiple waves of low
pressure that will move along the stalled front. Exact location
of this front will determine timing, location and amount of
rainfall.

General consensus from latest guidance has the front placed offshore
through much of this period, but there is still a good amount of
uncertainty. A very large spread exists in the latest NBM QPF
percentiles. Looking at 10th and 90th percentiles for multiple 24
hour periods Thursday through Monday, the 10th percentile is
completely dry each period while the 90th percentile maxes out
with the 24 hour period ending 00z Sunday with 1.5 to 2.5
inches across the area. The wetter solution could potentially
bring periods of heavy rain and in turn a flooding threat, but
this is a low probability at this time. WPC has a marginal
threat for excessive rain south of the area for Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure continues to move farther east of the region
with weak troughing remaining over the region. A ridge of high
pressure builds in Wednesday.

Mainly VFR expected for the remainder of the TAF period. The
exception may be for outlying and coastal terminals tonight
with a low chance of low stratus possible (mainly KGON, KISP,
KHPN, KJFK), but more confident in KGON. Isolated showers
possible this afternoon and tonight but not confident enough in
coverage or occurrence to include in the TAFs at this time. TSRA
possible but isolated if they occur at all.

Generally light and variable or a light N wind early this
afternoon. Winds gradually shift S into the late afternoon
before becoming light and variable once again. Light N/NW wind
Wednesday morning becomes more W/SW by afternoon, remaining
under 10kt.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of sea breeze today could be a few hours off.

Low chance of a SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, mainly 20Z-00Z.

Low chance of low stratus late tonight, mainly 8Z-12Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower at
times.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers with MVFR or lower at
times.

Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.

Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will lead to sub-SCA conditions through
the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents through the rest of
today with a lingering 3 ft 7s swell. The risk decreases to low
both Wednesday and Thursday with a weakening swell and winds
largely under 10 kt.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JP/DR