686
FXUS61 KOKX 031905
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
305 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across and eventually north of the
region into this evening. A cold front then slowly moves
through tonight into Friday. The front returns as a warm front
Saturday into Saturday night. A slow moving cold front passes
through the region Sunday into Monday. A broad area of high
pressure then builds south of the region through the middle of
the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Warm front expected to move farther north this afternoon and
eventually north of the area tonight. A weakening cold front
moves in late tonight. This will bring a higher chance and
coverage of showers along with a few thunderstorms.

Shower activity minimal this afternoon. Area starting to get
more westerly component to winds. Warmer for western locations
compared to eastern locations. Temperatures range from lower 50s
across Eastern Long Island and Southeast CT to lower 70s for
Northeast NJ.

Fog has begun development across eastern sections of the region,
becoming dense in some locations. SPS out for patchy dense fog
into early this evening for Southeast CT and Suffolk County Long
Island.

For tonight, expecting SW winds to decrease with a cold front
moving in. This cold front is weakening as it moves in as parent
low pressure fills in across Southeast Canada.

Expecting the fog to linger around especially across Southern CT
and Long Island. In addition, while the frontal forcing is weak,
mid level positive vorticity advection with smaller embedded
shortwave moves in. Upper level jet streak also moves north of
the area with its right rear quad getting close to the region
late tonight. This will enhance lift and with some ambient low
level instability, a few thunderstorms will be possible.

The convective coverage this evening is isolated to scattered at
most with convection being mostly south of Long Island where
greater instability will be located. The chances for showers
expand across the entire region late tonight, becoming likely,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. Lows will not
have a wide range, just upper 40s to mid 50s.

Some drier air behind the cold front will allow for fog to
become less expansive by early Friday. The rain increasing will
also help mix out the low levels, allowing for fog to breakup.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front and associated middle level energy should enter
the area late this evening into the overnight. An upper level
jet streak will also pass to the north with the region lying in
the right entrance region, favorable for some enhanced synoptic
lift. Guidance hints at a few showers with the cold front
passage. There is little to no instability available and based
on the latest trends, SPC has moved the marginal risk southwest
of our area. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but feel
coverage is limited to include for the evening. The cold front
passes south of Long Island overnight. The aforementioned lift
from the upper jet and middle level energy will combine to
produce a band of showers north of the cold front as moisture
overruns the boundary. These showers may end up most widespread
across the southern half of the area after midnight and continue
through day break. The lift wanes after day break and any
lingering showers should diminish by mid Friday morning.

High pressure over southeastern Canada ridges down through
the northeast Friday afternoon supporting dry conditions.
Middle and upper level moisture will continue traversing around
the periphery of a western Atlantic ridge residing to our south
through Friday night. A few breaks are possible Friday
afternoon, but overall skies remain mostly cloudy. Highs on
Friday will be in the lower to middle 60s under a light
downsloping NW flow.

Surface ridging quickly retreats Friday night allowing the
boundary to our south to begin lifting north towards the
area. This occurs as the ridge axis aloft begins to shift to
our east and upper troughing to our west starts to translate
towards the region. Much of the energy associated with the
trough as well as lift from the upper jet reside well to our
north and west. However, there should be overrunning north of
the warm front supporting mainly light rain development through
the day. The rain likely continues into a portion of Saturday
night, potentially tapering off late as the warm front begins
to lift north of the area into early Sunday morning. Have
capped model consensus PoPs off at likely for now given the
strongest warm advection and larger scale lift will be to our
north. Highs on Saturday will be slightly below normal in the
lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models were generally in good agreement in the extended, so
the blended approach was used.

Periods of rain Sun into Mon as a slow moving cdfnt comes thru.
Sun will be the warmest day of the fcst period with the thermal
ridge over the area. Instability appears limited attm, and the
GFS is putting out minimal amounts of convective pcpn. As a
result, have not included tstm chances with this fcst.

A strong upr low begins to drop into the area late Mon into Tue.
The GFS suggests a weak low may spin up along the offshore
frontal boundary as it does. This would produce better chances
for additional pcpn late Mon thru Tue across the cwa,
particularly ern areas. The 00Z ECMWF does not support this
soln.

Regardless of whether low pres develops offshore, the upr low
itself should be capable of producing some shwrs with dpva and
steep lapse rates. Isold tstms with small hail possible in this
setup.

H85 drops to -10C or colder by Wed, keeping the middle of the
week somewhat cool, although deep mixing should offset somewhat
the cold airmass. Still, the guidance looks too warm during the
day, likely trending towards climo. Since we are at Day 7 with
Wed, elected to stick with the NBM for now. However, expect a
downward trend in the numbers unless somehow the pattern does
not shift as advertised over the last several days.

Most of the cwa will likely see some subfreezing temps either Tue
ngt or Wed ngt, or both. How cold will depend on wind and residual
stratocu.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front will lift to the north this afternoon. A cold front
will move across late tonight.

KHPN and the Long Island/CT terminals all LIFR as of 18Z. Cigs have
improved to MVFR for the most part otherwise from the NYC metros
north/west except at KJFK which remains IFR. Expect KJFK to improve
to MVFR by 04/00Z but the terminals currently at LIFR may remain
that way until 04Z-06Z.

Can`t rule out isolated showers at any time into this evening, but
more widespread showers likely late tonight into early Fri morning
with MVFR cond.

Winds S-SW 15G20-25kt expected this afternoon at KISP and also at
KEWR/KTEB/KSWF, and only 5-10 kt elsewhere. Winds diminish slightly
going into this evening, then shift NW 5-10 kt with cold fropa late
tonight and increase to either side of 10 kt Fri morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD likely for flight cat or winds deviating from fcst. Peak gusts
to 30 kt possible at KEWR/KTEB this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond, especially in the morning
along the coast, otherwise VFR.

Saturday: Showers likely. MVFR to IFR expected in the afternoon and
at night. SE winds G15-20kt.

Sunday: Chance of showers. Any IFR cond early should become MVFR.
SW winds G15-20kt.

Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR/IFR cond possible.

Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The warm front lifts north of the waters into this evening.
Marine dense fog for waters surrounding Suffolk County NY,
could potentially get into western waters tonight as well. Small
craft advisories remain and look on track. Winds forecast to
lessen this evening, keeping SCA conditions just mainly on the
ocean after 8PM. The SCA conditions stay on the ocean through
all of tonight.

Winds will remain below SCA levels Friday through Saturday
night. Ocean SCA seas still expected east of Moriches Inlet
until 2PM Friday. Seas may build close to 5 ft on the ocean
late Saturday into Saturday night as another warm front
approaches.

The ocean will likely need a SCA for Sun and Mon, primarily for
seas, with a front passing thru the waters. Winds elsewhere blw SCA
lvls attm. Strengthening wly flow may require a SCA for all waters
Tue into Wed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding possible late tonight into early Friday for
coastal sections with heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-340-
     345-350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM/DS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JMC/JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM/DS