734
FXUS61 KOKX 092122
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
422 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves overhead this evening and then offshore late
tonight. The high will remain in control on Sunday as a frontal
system approaches from the west. A cold front moves through the
area Sunday night into Monday. Another cold front will move
through Monday night, followed by strong high pressure Tuesday and
Wednesday. A frontal system may move through on Thursday, with
high pressure again following for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
An upper level ridge continues to build in while high pressure moves
overhead this evening. The ridge axis will be just about over the
area by early Sunday morning, with high pressure just starting to
shift offshore.

Winds will continue to weaken this evening and become light and
variable or calm overnight. These winds combined with clear skies
will allow for optimal radiational cooling conditions. There is a
bit of uncertainty the second half of the night as some mid and high
level clouds move in from the west. Went a few degrees higher
than the previous forecast, but frost/freeze headlines remain
unchanged due to uncertainty.

Smoke from a fire on the border of Orange and Passaic continues to
be seen on satellite spreading towards the southeast. The NYS DEC
has issued an Air Quality Health Advisory for NYC, Rockland and
Westchester until midnight Sunday night. The NJ DEP has issued
an Air Quality Action Day for all of northeast NJ until midnight
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A return flow sets up Sunday morning as high pressure shifts
offshore. A shortwave trough lifts into the Great Lakes Region along
with it`s associated surface low. The pressure gradient tightens
through the day and a gusty southwest flow can be expected by the
afternoon. Temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 50s to
low 60s. Expect increasing dewpoints and sky cover through the day.

A cold front approaches Sunday night, with a plume of plume of Gulf
moisture out ahead of it. This will bring the first widespread rain
event to the area in over a month. Went later than the NBM and some
CAMs with the start time of any PoP due to forecast soundings
showing plenty of dry air that will have to be overcome. Most of
the rain will fall overnight Sunday night, with about 0.25 to
0.50 inches expected.

The airmass change with this first cold frontal passage will be more
of a moisture change than a temperature change. While dewpoints will
drop on Monday, highs will be in the 60s. The real shot of cold air
will come later on Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An amplifying upper level trough moving across the Northeast will
drag a sfc cold front across Mon night. The front will come across
dry, with winds shifting from W to NW and becoming gusty (up to 25
mph) late Mon night into daytime Tue as high pressure  builds from
the Great Lakes. As the high passes to the north, winds will veer N
Tue night, then NE-E Wed into Wed night. Temps on Wed may not make
it out of the 50s across some interior spots, with highs in the
lower 50s for most of the area.

There is some uncertainty on the timing and strength of a frontal
system later in the week as the next trough approaches from the
west. NBM appears to be closer to the GFS timing with chance PoP
daytime Thu, and only slight chance for Thu night, while the latest
ECMWF timing is much slower and weaker, mostly passing to the south
underneath a closed low over the Atlantic near the Canadian
Maritimes. At any rate, high pressure should follow in its wake to
close out the week, with high temps slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds over the region into tonight, sliding offshore
Sunday.

Mainly VFR forecast, though wildfire smoke may continue to lower
vsbys into late day to MVFR, primarily around NYC terminals. NW
winds near 10 kt thru remainder of the day, gusting toward 20 kt at
times. Gusts subside by late afternoon, and speeds lower under 5 kt
this evening as high pressure moves overhead. Flow goes variable
overnight, then becomes SW on Sunday, speeds up to 10 kt during the
day with gusts toward 20 kt in the afternoon.

Building cloud cover on Sunday with gradually lowering cigs. Any
rain likely holds off until Sunday evening, perhaps sneaking into
KSWF just prior to 00Z Monday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

End time of wind gusts could be off by a few hours.

Haze and smoke from nearby brush fires may lower vsbys at times into
this afternoon, mainly at KTEB, but can`t rule out at KEWR or KLGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday PM: VFR thru the afternoon, then becoming MVFR with rain
developing in the evening. MVFR or lower in rain at night.
SW wind gusts 15-20 kt late afternoon into night.

Monday: MVFR with rain ending during the morning, eventually
becoming VFR. SW-W winds 10 to 15 kt, gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts
diminishing after sunset.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds near 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt, becoming more
northerly at night. Gusts mainly during the day into early evening.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR or lower with rain early.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the waters through Sunday.
Winds continue to increase through the day though, and SCA
conditions return by Sunday evening/night. A strengthening
southwesterly flow will peak Sunday night at 20 to 30 kt. Waves
on the ocean could reach 8 to 10 ft.

There may be a lull in SCA cond for Mon night on the non ocean
waters, but then SCA cond likely for all waters Tue into Tue
evening, with NW-N flow gusting to 25-30 kt and ocean seas up to 5
ft. Quiet from daytime Wed into Thu with high pressure passing to
the north and then perhaps a weak frontal system approaching on
Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning for elevated fire danger remains in effect through
6PM for the entire area based on anomalously dry/drought conditions,
meteorological factors, and coordination on available fuels with
fire officials/land managers. A Red Flag Warning is also in
affect for southern CT for Sunday.

Winds increase again on Sunday. By the afternoon winds will be sustained
10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. Min RH values will be
around 30 to 40 percent.

Dry cond with min RH 25-35% likely for Tue and Wed, with NW winds
also gusting up to 25 mph on Tue as well. Min RH looks to be higher
later in the week (45-55%) with lighter winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions have developed across the area per US
Drought Monitor. Streamflows are generally below the 25th percentile
of normal for this time of year. There are no other hydrologic
concerns through mid next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for CTZ005>012.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ211>213.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     NYZ078>081.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     NYZ071-177-179.
     Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EST Sunday
     night for NYZ067-068.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EST Sunday night for
     NYZ069>075-176-178.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     NJZ104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 1 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ331-335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ332-340-345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG/JT
FIRE WEATHER...JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT