875
FXUS61 KOKX 232341
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
741 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the northeast coast continues to drift offshore
tonight. A cold front approaches Sunday evening and moves slowly
through the area late Sunday night into Monday. High pressure then
gradually builds in for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure east of Long Island will continue to slide offshore
tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front moving across the Great Lakes
region, will continue to push eastward towards the CWA. A southerly
flow tonight could result in an increase in some cloud cover and a
few of the hi-res models (NAM 4K and ARW) are hinting at some light
rain or drizzle east of NYC. For now, with most models remaining
dry, will lean in that direction, however will need to monitor
trends this evening. Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level low moving across central and eastern Canada, will
slowly move eastward through Monday. At the surface a cold front
associated with surface low pressure north of the Great Lakes will
slowly push eastward, likely not reaching the far western portion of
the CWA until Monday morning. Ahead of the front however, expect
clouds to increase through the day Sunday. Showers and possibly a
thunderstorm will be possible Sunday late afternoon into the
overnight. Expect POPs to gradually increase Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night. The front gradually pushes across the area during the
day Monday, moving east of the area either late Monday evening or
Monday night. Expect at least a chance of showers are the front
pushes across the region. There will be an increase in precipitable
waters, 1.5-2.0 inches, and with a slow eastward storm motion a few
showers and thunderstorms have the potential of producing briefly
heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry conditions expected through the long term.

* Temperatures through the long term will be near or slightly below
  normal.

Forecast models in good agreement through the long term with a cold
front pushing east of the forecast area Monday night, followed by a
larger area of high pressure building over the area from the Central
Plains through the middle and end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure slides farther offshore into tonight. A cold
front approaches Sunday.

Mainly VFR.

A brief period of MVFR cigs can not be ruled out early Sunday
morning, with a return to VFR thereafter. Best chances of MVFR
now look to be at KSWF and KHPN. Showers are possible late in
the TAF period for KSWF.

A general S flow through the TAF period. Gusts largely diminish
by 03Z this evening. NYC terminals remain just under 10 kt
overnight, with outlying terminals decreasing toward 5 kt.
Similar flow on Sunday, around 10 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt
developing by mid afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Have removed TEMPO for MVFR cigs for early Sunday morning due to
less confidence. Can not completely rule out though, mainly
between 09 and 13z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday and Monday: Scattered showers Sun PM and Mon PM, isolated
tstm possible in the aft/eve, MVFR or lower possible.

Tuesday - Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain on the ocean waters into
this evening, with the E long period swells slow to subside and
combined the late afternoon/eve coastal jet formation.

Ocean seas then fall below SCA levels late tonight. Conditions
then remain below advisory levels for all waters into mid next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high risk for rip currents continues through Sunday for the
Atlantic Ocean beaches as residual long period 3 to 4 ft easterly
swell @ 10-11 seconds will be slow to subside, combined with a
1-2 ft southerly wind wave. It`s possible that conditions begin
to abate toward later Sunday afternoon for all beaches.

Localized minor coastal flooding remains possible for a few
gauges reaching minor benchmarks for this evening`s high tide
also in Nassau.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...