571
FXUS61 KOKX 171812
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
212 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated-scattered shower/storm possible this afternoon into
evening mainly NW of NYC metro. No severe or flooding impacts
anticipated.

2) There is a high rip current risk at ocean beaches through
this evening.

3) Mainly dry Tuesday into Wednesday with the next chance of
showers on Thursday, potentially continuing into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure center located on the south shore of Suffolk
County as of 15z. Steady light to moderate rain to the south
and east of the center continues shifting east for the remainder
of the morning into early aftn. To the north and NW of the low,
areas of light rain or drizzle.

A weak cold front/surface trough moves in this afternoon. There
should be enough lingering moisture and instability (SBCAPEs 500-
1500 J/jg) to support isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ and into NYC. Any activity should
dissipate shortly after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Shear
is weak, so no severe impacts expected.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High rip current risk for ocean beaches through this evening
due to 3-5 ft waves and a S-SE swell. However, the risk may
lower to moderate for Nassau and NYC beaches this afternoon as
seas begin subsiding.

For Tuesday, the rip current risk is moderate although it could
end up becoming low as S-SE swells subside and winds remain
light.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High pressure will build over the area Monday night through
the middle of the week. It should remain dry with seasonably
warm temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The only
exception is a low probability for a passing shower Tuesday
afternoon across New London County Connecticut. Some weak lift
and residual moisture may support an few brief showers Tuesday
afternoon.

A broad upper trough will push towards the northeast Wednesday
night into Thursday. Low pressure over southeast Canada will
drag a cold front across the area on Thursday. The front will be
entering the area late Wednesday night, but forcing is weak and
moisture is limited. There is a signal in the last few runs of
the modeling for a jet streak to pass to our north on Thursday
with some shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper trough
to our west. This could be enough to develop showers and
possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday as the front slowly moves
through the area. The NBM has maintained chance PoPs on Thursday
and this seems reasonable as there is still a decent amount of
ensemble spread. There is a plausible scenario where any showers
on Thursday remain isolated as dynamics aloft remain weak.

The front is likely to stall to the south on Friday and may
remain there into at least the first half of the upcoming
weekend. Some of the uncertainty with shortwave energy on
Thursday may persist Friday into the weekend as the the upper
trough lingers over the east. A few waves of low pressure may
develop on the front to the south in response to the troughing.
Chances for showers, possibly a thunderstorm, exist late Friday
into the weekend. Friday through the weekend will not be a
complete washout, but there may be a period where showers are
more likely than others. This will become better resolved over
the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal system impacts the terminals today and pushes
offshore tonight. Weak high pressure builds in Tuesday.

Weak low pressure slowly moving southeast through the rest of
the afternoon. Lingering IFR/MVFR conditions should improve to
VFR by 20Z, perhaps earlier looking at current visible
satellite imagery showing scattering of the BKN/OVC deck over NE
NJ and into the metro terminals. Farther east, conditions may
not improve to VFR at all today, and may remain IFR through the
evening. MVFR to IFR conditions move back in overnight from the
east, with LIFR possible especially across the more outlying
terminals.

A second round of showers remain possible this afternoon with
isolated thunder, but newer model guidance is lowering these
chances. Best chances for any TSRA will be at KSWF, with lower
confidence of occurrence closer to NYC. Because of this, will
only mention TSRA at KSWF with a PROB30 and leave out of the TAF
at the NYC terminals.

Winds are expected to be light through the TAF period at 10 kt
or less. N winds shift to the NE overnight, becoming light and
variable for outlying terminals. Sea breezes impact the area
late Tuesday morning into the afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence wind direction forecast today.

Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from TAF.

Timing of showers could be a few hours off from TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 187Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR or lower at times. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers with MVFR
possible.

Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in any showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean seas will continue to subside through today. Anticipating
spots east of Fire Island Inlet to remain elevated with a lingering
swell through mid-afternoon with a SCA still in place. Conditions
across all waters then remain below SCA levels this evening through
Saturday as a relatively weak pressure gradient remains in place.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/DS
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DS