317
FXUS61 KOKX 171832
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
232 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated-scattered shower/storm possible this afternoon into
evening mainly NW of NYC metro. No severe or flooding impacts
anticipated.

2) There is a high rip current risk at ocean beaches into this
evening.

3) Next chance of showers is on Thursday, potentially continuing
through the upcoming weekend. Potential impacts appear to be limited
so far.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A weak cold front/surface trough moves in this afternoon. There
should be enough lingering moisture and instability (SBCAPEs 500-
1500 J/jg) to support isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ and into NYC. Any activity should
dissipate shortly after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Shear
is weak, so no severe impacts expected.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High rip current risk for ocean beaches through this evening
due to 3-5 ft waves and a S-SE swell.

For Tuesday, the rip current risk is moderate although it could
end up becoming low as S-SE swells subside and winds remain
light.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A cold front pushes through during Wednesday night with guidance
consensus showing the front stalling to our south on Thursday.
Shortwave energy pivoting along the base of a longwave trough aloft
attempts to generate low pressure along the stalled front to our
south. Further deepening of the longwave trough to our west may then
continue to send waves of low pressure along the boundary through
the upcoming weekend. Low confidence in the details at this point,
but a threat of periods of rain/showers with a lower threat of
thunder persists from Thursday through at least the weekend. Severe
impacts are not anticipated as long as the boundary and low pressure
waves remain to our south. Potential flooding impacts are more
uncertain due to model spread regarding the timing/position of the
low pressure waves as well as this still being 3+ days away.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal system impacts the terminals today and pushes
offshore tonight. Weak high pressure builds in Tuesday.

Weak low pressure slowly moving southeast through the rest of
the afternoon. Lingering IFR/MVFR conditions should improve to
VFR by 20Z, perhaps earlier looking at current visible
satellite imagery showing scattering of the BKN/OVC deck over NE
NJ and into the metro terminals. Farther east, conditions may
not improve to VFR at all today, and may remain IFR through the
evening. MVFR to IFR conditions move back in overnight from the
east, with LIFR possible especially across the more outlying
terminals.

A second round of showers remain possible this afternoon with
isolated thunder, but newer model guidance is lowering these
chances. Best chances for any TSRA will be at KSWF, with lower
confidence of occurrence closer to NYC. Because of this, will
only mention TSRA at KSWF with a PROB30 and leave out of the TAF
at the NYC terminals.

Winds are expected to be light through the TAF period at 10 kt
or less. N winds shift to the NE overnight, becoming light and
variable for outlying terminals. Sea breezes impact the area
late Tuesday morning into the afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence wind direction forecast today.

Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from TAF.

Timing of showers could be a few hours off from TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 187Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR or lower at times. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers with MVFR
possible.

Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in any showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions across all waters remain below SCA levels for the rest of
the day through Saturday as a relatively weak pressure gradient
remains in place.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC