398
FXUS61 KOKX 020111
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
911 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach tonight and dissipate over the area
on Wednesday. Another cold front will approach on Thursday and
move through by Thursday evening. High pressure will then build
in for Independence Day and into the weekend. Another frontal
system may impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Convection across the area has largely become stratified with
spotty lightning activity. In addition, rainfall rates have
dropped off considerably with most locations only seeing less
than a tenth of an inch/hour. A few embedded heavier showers may
produce a tenth or two/hour. Thus, not expecting any additional
hazard products through the night and all flood advisories
likely to be dropped within the hour.

The heaviest rainfall fell across portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley into interior southern CT with MRMS rainfall amounts and
some observations supporting large swaths of 1 to 2 inches with
localized amounts approaching 3 inches. Some hourly rates were
on the fringe of 1- and 3-hour FFG.

There could be another pulse of convection toward daybreak but
it would be non-severe and likely showers.

With the cold front more or less slowing late at night look for
a damp and cloudy, muggy night with low temperatures/dewpoints
both in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Will still have likely PoP across Long Island/SE CT and chance
PoP for the rest of the area except well NW of NYC as the front
slowly moves into the area and washes out. By afternoon most of
the area should be dry except perhaps eastern Long Island,
where a chance for showers and possibly a tstm could linger
into the afternoon. Temps will be cooler than those of Tue, with
highs in the mid 80s north/west of NYC where the sun should peek
out in the afternoon, with mostly lower 80s elsewhere, and
upper 70s right along the shoreline of SE CT and eastern Long
Island. Dewpoints will still be running in the upper 60s to near
70 for NYC metro and coastal sections, and dropping into the
mid 60s in the afternoon north/west, with heat index values no
higher than 90 in some isolated spots in the urban corridor.

Wed night looks mostly clear, and a little cooler at least
outside of the NYC metro area, with lows from the lower 70s in
the metro area to the lower 60s across the interior. Dewpoints
will continue to fall slightly, to the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
**Key Points**

* A frontal system will impact the area Thursday, with a marginal
  risk of severe thunderstorms.

* A dry Independence Day and weekend ahead, with normal to slightly
  above normal temperatures and increasing humidity through the
  period.

The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major
changes. An upper low dives south from eastern Canada into New
England to start the period. Attendant surface low pressure well
to the north then drags a cold front through the area Thursday
afternoon which should initiate a period of showers and
thunderstorms. Model soundings do indicate some marginal lapse
rates/ MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) and 0-6km bulk shear (~30 kts.) by
Thursday afternoon as an upper level jet streak passes nearby.
This may be enough to initiate some organized, isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms, and SPC maintains a marginal risk over
the entire area given the potential for strong/damaging winds
with any storm. With PWATs around 1.25" and steering flows near
30kts, the probability of flash flooding looks quite low.

Thereafter, upper ridging commences with rising heights through
the weekend. Friday looks a bit cooler with lower humidity
(Tds in the upper 50s and lower 60s) and warming temperatures
(and humidity) each day through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold stalls over the area into Wednesday morning.

Widespread rain, with isolated to scattered TSRA leading to
MVFR vsbys at times this evening. Best chances for any TSRA is N
and W of the metro terminals where TSRA will be more isolated
through 02Z, possibly ending sooner. SHRA persist into the
overnight, and MVFR cigs likely prevail late tonight until
daybreak or so, then improvement and return to VFR thru mid
morning, if not sooner.

SW flow becomes light tonight, under 10 kt, through Wed. Winds
shift to the W after 03Z tonight. Sea breezes expected for
coastal terminals, shifting winds back to the S or SSW by late
Wed morning into the early afternoon timeframe.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to uncertainty in timing of and flight
rule categories associated with SHRA/TSRA, improvement to VFR

Isolated shra/tsra possible late Wed afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday PM: VFR.

Thursday: Possible showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR or
lower possible day into early eve, higher chances north and west of
NYC terminals.

Friday-Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
As a cold front approaches, S flow will increase, with ocean
seas building to 4-5 ft and perhaps a few gusts close to 25 kt
on the outer waters mainly E of Fire Island Inlet late this
afternoon into tonight. SCA remains in effect there through
tonight. Tstms may pose a hazard of gusty winds, lightning,
heavy rain, and locally rough seas into tonight as well,
especially late today and this evening.

Generally tranquil conditions expected thereafter outside of any
tstms on Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The flood threat has come to an end has the heavier rainfall
has exited the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip currents continues into Wednesday due to a
southerly swell of 4-5 ft 7s. This will produce waves in the
surf zone of 3-5 ft. The swell will subside some heading into
Thursday with the risk expected to lower to moderate.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DBR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...