535
FXUS61 KOKX 221948
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended on the eastern ocean
and canceled for the south shore bays.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening with
brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Most favored areas CT and
Long Island.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for ocean beaches through
Thursday (see marine section below).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will continue to track across the cwa from the NW
this aftn and eve. Isold-sct shwrs and tstms likely along and
ahead of the front, which has already cleared the nwrn portion
of the area. SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg has been analyzed, and with
dry mid levels, DCAPE is modeled to exceed 1000 J/kg. This will
produce a severe wind threat where storms reach the EL around
40kft. The highest instability is across ern areas where
dewpoints are highest. Working against convection is subsidence
aloft, somewhat limiting the overall potential. The ern portion
of the cwa remains in Marginal Risk for severe.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front continues to move through the area this afternoon.
High pressure then settles overhead for Thursday.

Showers have pushed through southern CT. Expecting any
additional activity this afternoon/evening to be very isolated,
if at all. Have pulled PROB30s from all TAFs except KGON.

Winds veer west late this afternoon, then NW/N this evening as
they diminish and lose gusts. Winds remain out of the N on
Thursday, with potential sea breezes.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chances for an isolated shower or thunderstorm have lowered.

Sea breeze for Thursday is most likely for JFK and late in the
day. Have left out of TAF for other terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday - Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR in the AM with chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas will remain elevated on the ocean thru Thu, so the SCA was
extended there. Winds are still blw criteria on the south shore
bays, so have canceled the SCA for this aftn there. Could get an
ocnl gust to 25kt, and any tstms on all waters will be capable
of producing higher gusts.

Winds and seas look to remain blw SCA lvls Fri-Mon.

Rip Currents: A high rip current risk remains in place through
Thursday. Some areas could come close to high surf criteria,
mainly this aftn and eve. At this time it appears that surf
heights will fall just short of surf advisory criteria with the
swell direction becomes less orthogonal to the coastline by the
time the swell height and period increase, thus limiting the
threat of high surf conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JMC