014
FXUS61 KOKX 111125
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
725 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered just offshore over the Western
Atlantic early this week. The high slowly weakens as a frontal
system approaches into midweek. The associated cold front moves
through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure
returns Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The region continues to remain under mid level ridging, with a
surface high situated just offshore to our south and east.

Any localized areas of fog, mainly river valleys, mix out shortly
after sunrise. Temperatures start slightly higher compared to
the previous night, ranging from upper 50s in the outlying rural
locations, to lower 70s for NYC and metro.

Abundant sunshine prevails today under a veil of high cirrus.
The nearby high pressure allows for a light south or southwest
flow across the region. Temperatures aloft look slightly warmer
than Sunday, and likewise surface temperatures can be expected
to be a couple of degrees warmer, with mid to upper 80s for most
this afternoon, and a few lower 90s in the hottest locales,
mainly NE NJ and parts of the interior. Low levels are not
particularly juiced however, with highest dew pts into the low
to mid 60s, heat indices probably only achieve the lower 90s on
the high end.

Tonight, the offshore high continues to weaken and winds go
nearly calm, especially inland. There could be some low stratus
and perhaps some patchy fog once again. With a bit more cloud
coverage, lows overnight range from around 60 to 70 across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge axis shifts just offshore into midweek and increasing SW
flow in the BL around high pressure centered to the south helps
advect in a slightly warmer air mass with increased moisture.

No significant changes in conditions expected Tuesday relative
to Monday. Dry and sunny with afternoon temperatures ranging
from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Given dew points still in the
low to mid 60s, once again, heat indices are progged near the
actual temperature with highest values in the lower 90s for most.

Peak of heat and humidity likely comes Wednesday. 925 mb
temperatures progged near or just a hair warmer than Tuesday, but
dew pts should be at least several degrees higher, generally into
the upper 60s or lower 70s in the afternoon. So while air
temperatures will be similar to the previous day, the increased
moisture should lead to heat indices several degrees above air
temperatures, with highest values into the mid to upper 90s,
mainly across NYC, NE NJ, and much of the interior. While this
approaches heat advisory criteria, the limited duration and
marginal values would not warrant an issuance as is stands, but
will need to monitored should slightly higher temperature/moisture
values be realized.

The ridging gradually breaks down and shifts east Wednesday as
troughing advances east through Canada. This sends a frontal
system toward the region, though the parent low looks to track
well to the north across interior Canada. That said, the attendant
cold front approaches through the day, and with it, likely an
increase in cloud cover by late day, with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms by evening or night, especially north
and west of the coast. While some modest instability and high
PWATs will be present during the day, best forcing is well
north, and coverage and severity of any convection appear
relatively limited at this point.

PoPs increase into NYC and the coast Wednesday evening and
during the nighttime hours as the front advances closer, but
looks to slow as it attempts to move through, with chances for
precipitation lingering into at least Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No changes were made with this update.

A slow moving cold pushes across the area Thursday, with chances for
showers and potentially a thunderstorm continuing. Mainly dry
conditions return for Thursday night through next weekend with high
pressure building in and remaining in control, pushing south of the
area by Saturday.

Conditions continue to look slightly cooler on Thursday with
slightly lower humidity levels. Highs are expected to reach the
upper 80s for most spots and around 90 in NE NJ and NYC metro.
Dew points in the mid to upper 60s with these temperatures will
yield max heat indices in the lower 90s in the warmest spots.
This will preclude the need for any heat headlines during this time
frame as the 2 day criteria looks unlikely to be met when factoring
in the warmest day on Wednesday. Near normal temperatures and
typical humidity levels for this time of year are expected for
Friday and Saturday. Slightly warmer readings and higher humidity
levels for Sunday as the high pushes south and east of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control.

SW winds begin increasing this morning, becoming S around 10 kt
late morning and early afternoon. S winds start weakening
towards sunset and become light SW or light and variable
overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shift to the S may be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Chance of late day/evening showers and thunderstorm
with MVFR or lower conditions. Chance of showers late at night.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.

Thursday night-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient in place, winds and seas are expected
to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through the
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrological concerns through the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is in place today and Tuesday along
ocean beaches due to persistent E-ESE swells with around 3 ft waves
and a 7 to 9 second period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...