939
FXUS61 KOKX 212014
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
314 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds today into the weekend, then moves offshore
Sunday night into Monday. A warm front passes nearby to the
north during Monday, followed by a cold front moving through
Tuesday night. Weak high pressure then briefly returns for
Wednesday before a frontal system likely affects the region on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds to our south tonight. Winds will diminish as
the pressure gradient over the forecast area weakens. Dry conditions
with lows around 20 in the city and teens elsewhere. Wind chills
overnight fall to around 10 in the city with single digits
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The flow aloft will be zonal for the most part during the period
with weakening surface high pressure centered to our south. Sunny
conditions to start the day Saturday, then it appears that some
cirrus will be filtering the sun during the afternoon. WSW winds
will help push high temperatures close to 40 in the city with middle
and upper 30s across the rest of the area.

The cirrus should shift out of here during the overnight hours of
Saturday. This will probably allow for a few hours of favorable
radiational cooling conditions. Anticipating low temperatures in the
low 20s for the northernmost zones and Pine Barrens Region, around
30 in the city, and mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures likely 5 to 10 degrees above normal Tuesday through
  Thursday. A return to more seasonable temps to end the week.

* Mainly dry conditions are expected through mid week. A frontal
  system will likely affect the region Wed Night into Thursday, with
  a more organized low pressure system possible for next weekend.

Quasi-zonal upper flow through early next week with PAC jet riding
the northern tier of the ConUS around expansive polar trough across
southern Canada. Southern stream appears to remain split from
northern stream until late week, after the northern stream upper
flow becomes increasingly amplified during the mid to late week as a
series of deepening shortwaves ride along the flow.

Seasonable conditions Sunday into Monday as a weak shortwave and
surface trough move through on Sunday morning with weak Canadian
high pressure building in Sun Night into Mon AM, and offshore
during the day Monday.

General agreement with quick succession of shortwaves moving through
southcentral to southeastern tier of Canada Sunday Night into Monday
Night, and then a stronger shortwave digging from the northern
plains Monday to the eastern US Tuesday Night (although there is a
bit of model spread in timing/amplitude of this shortwave). The
result will be a complex frontal system with primary low pressure
tracking around the base of Hudson`s Bay, and possible secondary
triple point low developing across the US/Canadian border that could
bring the next chance for precipitation locally late Tuesday into
Wed AM. This looks to be a progressive system with limited precip
potential. The amplified SW flow into the NE US and resulting
moderating trend Mon into Tuesday support a mainly rain event, with
temps rising to above seasonable levels. Will have to monitor the
low probability of a potential interaction of this northern stream
shortwave with a southern branch shortwave, and possible backing of
developing offshore low closer to the coast bringing a wetter
scenario (limited support for this from ECMWF and its ensembles).

Thereafter, general model agreement in further longitudinal
amplification of troughing across the Eastern US for late week
period in response to a more vigorous PAC shortwave diving through
the Central US into the SE US. Typical model timing/amplitude spread
exists at this time frame, with resultant model spread in
track/timing/intensity of a clipper type system through the region
Thu/Thu night. Pattern suggestive of another progressive and
primarily rain system.

In its wake, a subsequent return to more seasonable late Feb/early
March temps for Friday, and possibly below normal with a more
organized low pressure system for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds into the area through tonight, and remains
in control into Saturday.

VFR through the forecast period.

NW flow 15-20 kt, gusting to 25-30 kt through this evening,
with a few gusts of 30-35 kt possible. NW flow continues tonight
with winds and gusts diminishing, and gusts ending 04Z to 06Z.

Winds becoming W-SW on Saturday around 10 kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected. Occasional gusts 30-35 kt
possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

21z Saturday - Sunday: VFR.

Monday through Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of rain
showers Tuesday night with low chance of MVFR mainly north and
west.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds diminish through tonight, but advisory conditions continue on
all waters. Sub-advisory conditions then follow for Saturday
through Monday with a weak pressure gradient over the waters.

Potential for marginal SCA conditions on the ocean waters Mon Night
into Tuesday with marginal S/SW SCA winds and waves in the wake of
warm frontal passage and ahead of approaching cold front/possible
low pressure.

Return to Sub SCA conds Tue Night into Wed likely as weak high
pressure builds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-353-
     355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ332-350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-
     338-340-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV