680
FXUS61 KOKX 070320
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1120 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west tonight, while a weak
low passes to the southeast. The cold front passes through the
area Saturday evening. Weak high pressure then briefly follows
for Sunday followed by an area of low pressure passing to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. A slow moving frontal
system will then work across the area Tuesday into early
Wednesday. High pressure returns later in the day Wednesday and
remains near the region through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Residual showers remain possible through the night as
convective debris approaches from the west. Some CAMs also
indicate that a redevelopment of some showers and possibly an
isolated storm is possible for eastern coastal areas as a weak
surface low moves by late tonight, but fairly uncertain in that
occurrence. Left chance PoPs to indicate the potential for some
showers tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

Ample low level moisture will also bring the possibility of low
stratus or fog development, mainly for the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front continues to make its way into the area by Saturday
morning, though ample cloud cover is expected to limit the amount of
instability that develops on Saturday. Scattered showers remain
possible Saturday morning which may expand and grow upscale into the
thunderstorms into the late morning and afternoon. Coverage should
be more widespread than Friday given the proximity of the forcing
despite less instability. Any hydrologic concerns should be fairly
localized as well with storms possibly producing rainfall rates on
the order of 1" per hour. Highs on Saturday will be in the middle to
upper 70s.

Showers and storms move eastward off the coast by evening while
dissipating. The cold front will slowly make its way through the
area so that residual showers are possible Saturday evening and
night, mainly before midnight. Lows will be in the upper 50s to
middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall, not seeing a whole lot change in the extended period
with a broad upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to
the East Coast. Shortwave ridging embedded within the mean upper
flow will move through the area on Sunday with weak high
pressure at the surface. The trend supports some sun the first
half of the day with mid and high level clouds streaming in from
the SW due to large scale warm advection. Blended in some
CONSALL with the NBM to show this. 12Z guidance is also
supporting this trend.

As the upper low/trough descends across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, the backing upper flow
will steer a weak wave of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic
coast to the south and east of the area. For the time, there is
a chance of rain Sunday into Monday, highest at night. There
remains some uncertainty with the low track with the ECMWF
showing some convection to the north of the low track across the
area. This looks to be more a result of the large scale warm
advection ahead of the digging upper trough. In addition, the
low itself could maintain enough low-level ridging across the
northeast to limit rain chances. Sunday could very well be dry.
Behind the low, Monday is also looking mainly dry with chances
of showers/embedded thunder increasing Monday night into Tuesday
as a frontal system approaches from the southwest. While the
deep-layered SW flow and wind shear increases across the area,
an onshore E/SE flow ahead of the warm front keeps the low-
levels stable with any instability elevated initially. Whether
or not the area can warm sector and destabilize ahead of the
cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening remains to be seen. The
best chance for rain will be Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The
cold front passes through Tuesday night.

The upper trough lifts out Wednesday with warming heights aloft
and high pressure for the end of the week.

Sunday through Tuesday will mainly feature weak onshore flow,
intervals of clouds, and rain chances. This will keep daytime
highs mainly in the 70s with lows warming into the lower 60s
during this time. Humidity will be on the rise as well.
Temperatures will warm Wednesday through Friday with a W/SW flow
and building heights aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
 frontal system continues to approach tonight and will slowly move
across the terminals on Saturday.

VFR to start for NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals with LIFR
developing across eastern Long Island and coastal southeast
Connecticut. The lower conditions should expand overnight with IFR,
locally LIFR, at all sites by late tonight into early Saturday
morning. Conditions should start improving after 12z with a return
to MVFR/VFR at NYC terminals on northwest mid to late morning. IFR-
MVFR may persist into the afternoon across Long Island and southern
Connecticut terminals.

An isolated shower cannot be ruled out tonight, mainly north and
west of the NYC metro. Showers should become more widespread late
Saturday morning into the afternoon. There is also a chance of a few
thunderstorms. Have included mention of thunder in a PROB30 for now.
However, it is entirely possible for any thunder to be isolated.
Showers should start diminishing by early Saturday evening.

Winds will continue to weaken overnight becoming light and variable.
Confidence in wind direction on Saturday is low due very weak flow
and proximity of the frontal boundary. Winds may become SW late
morning/early afternoon and then shift to the NW-N as the boundary
starts moving across the area mid afternoon into the evening. There
is also a chance winds remain variable around 5 kt for much of the
day.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories overnight into
early Saturday morning. Low chance for LIFR at KJFK 08z-12z.

Amendments likely for timing of showers and potential thunderstorms
on Saturday. Any thunderstorm could remain isolated.

Low confidence wind direction forecast Saturday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: Chance for MVFR/IFR, mainly east of NYC metro.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late in the day and at night.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR at night.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected. Wave heights are expected
to slightly increase late tonight and into Saturday, possibly
getting around 5 feet on the ocean. If confidence in 5 foot
wave heights increases, a SCA may be needed on the ocean zones
Saturday.

Thereafter, expect sub-advisory conditions through Tuesday. Waves of
low pressure passing to the south and a southerly swell will keep
seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft. Chances increase for marginal SCA
conditions for seas around 5 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Seas should then fall below SCA conditions on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rain amounts overnight should generally be light and under a
tenth of an inch. There is the potential for up to half an inch
of rainfall Saturday as frontal system moves through the area.
The higher amounts will more likely occur over the Lower Hudson
Valley. While widespread hydrologic issues aren`t expected,
localized urban or street flooding is possible.

No widespread hydrologic impacts otherwise for Saturday night through
Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night may produce at
least minor nuisance flooding. Low confidence at this time regarding
potential impacts this far ahead in time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A building SSE swell will increase to 5 ft 8-9S on Saturday.
This is expected to produce 3 to 5 ft breakers in the surf
zone and increase the rip current risk to high. Thus, a High
Rip Current Risk is in effect Saturday for all locations along
the oceanfront.

Swells diminish some on Sunday. A moderate rip current risk is
forecast at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...