720
FXUS61 KOKX 121441
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
941 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds in from the NE into this afternoon.
Another low pressure system passes through tonight into Thursday
morning. High pressure then builds back in during Thursday
night through Friday before shifting offshore on Saturday. Low
pressure then low moves through the region Saturday through
Sunday. High pressure slowly builds back in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Light snow has ended this morning. Noted some ocean effect bands
offshore, but these will stay south of Long Island and should
gradually diminish in coverage.

Otherwise, overcast conditions will persist for the remainder of
the daytime hours as the region lies between the departing
system and low pressure beginning to develop across the southern
states. High pressure builds to our NE due to upper confluence,
and the associated subsidence will keep us dry into the
afternoon. Highs in the middle to upper 30s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Primary low pressure center shifts from the Ohio Valley into the
eastern Great Lakes Region tonight before passing well to our north
during Thursday. Meanwhile, a weaker secondary low center shifts
through Long Island during Thursday morning. This will bring snow to
the forecast area this evening, then as a warm nose aloft pushes in
and an onshore flow strengthens, the snow changes to a wintry mix
before an eventual changeover to rain during the overnight hours
through the first half of Thursday morning. Rain then tapers off
late morning into the afternoon. GFS continues to be the coldest
with thermal profiles aloft, but has at least trended closer to the
rest of the models. Surface temp forecast is similar to the previous
forecast, but overall has trended slightly warmer than 24-36 hours
ago. The warm air aloft surges in during the overnight hours,
leaving a fairly brief opportunity for freezing rain across some of
the interior zones. There is enough confidence however that at least
a light glaze of ice will follow a snow/sleet accumulation of up to
an inch, warranting a Winter Weather Advisory for these zones. The
advisory begins early this evening, and lasts into the Thursday
morning commute. Outside of the advisory area, no freezing rain
anticipated, and only a light coating of snow/sleet this evening
before the changeover to rain. Above-normal high temperatures for
Thursday in the mid 40s.

Dry and somewhat breezy Thursday night into Friday morning as high
pressure builds in behind the departing storm. Its ridge axis shifts
through here during Friday night with light winds and good
radiational cooling conditions. Highs on Friday below normal in the
lower and middle 30s. Lows Friday night in the 20s for coastal areas
with teens inland and Pine Barrens Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As for the precipitation event this weekend, a warm front will be
followed by a strong low and associated occluded front. The strong
low moves across Sunday into Sunday night along with its occluded
front. Warm air advection makes for plain rain for entire region
pretty much all of Sunday afternoon.

However, with onset (Saturday) and tapering off of precipitation
(Sunday night), snow will be probable for all of the region. In
between, mainly Saturday night into Sunday, warming aloft in
advance of the strong low will present a potential transition
to a wintry mix, including freezing rain across the interior.
There is uncertainty and subsequent forecasts may have northward
or southward shifts with this wintry mix and snow line and its
timing.

Too much uncertainty at this point for any exact rain, snow and/or
ice amounts.

Behind this front, strong cold air advection is expected with jet
max south of the region. Coldest temperatures of the forecast period
are expected for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Forecast highs
struggle to approach the freezing mark and are well below
normal

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure continues to pass south and east of Long Island
today. High pressure briefly builds to the north this morning
before a second low approaches from the west late this
afternoon, and passes north of the region tonight into Thursday
morning.

Mainly MVFR expected today. However, a brief period of VFR
conditions remain possible this afternoon. Confidence of VFR
conditions remains low.

The next round of precipitation moves into the region this evening.
Expect a wintry mix toward 23-00z, becoming likely early this
evening. The wintry mix is expected to transition to plain rain
along the coast 03Z to 05Z. The transition to plain rain will
take a bit longer further from the coast, with a wintry mix
likely much of the TAF period at KSWF.

Light NE winds becomes 10-15 kt across the region as the low
begins to depart this morning. Winds gradually become east in
the afternoon. Winds eventually veer to the south Thursday
morning. Highest winds will be along the coast. Eastern
terminals may see some winds gust into the 20kt range.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for changing flight categories today.

Another round of wintry weather, snow and sleet, may begin
around 23-00Z and transition to plain rain Wednesday evening and
overnight. Low confidence forecast, especially with timing of
transitioning precipitation types. Amendments will be likely
during this time.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Rain along the coast with a wintry mix north of NYC and
across Connecticut with IFR/LIFR. Becoming plain rain north of NYC
during the morning. Rain ending from the west during Thursday
afternoon. LLWS may be possible at the NYC metro terminals, and
across Long Island into southeastern Connecticut Thursday from
around 15Z to 21Z. E gusts 15-20 kt Wednesday night.

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Saturday: VFR early. MVFR or lower possible with rain/snow mix near
coast and snow inland late. Becoming all rain at the coast by early
evening, and a bit later at the inland terminals.

Sunday: MVFR for much of the day in rain; winds SW 5-10kts.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Advisory conditions during the daytime hours for only the ocean
with increasing easterly winds building seas over 5 ft, and
winds gusting over 25 kt. The SCA has now been expanded to all
marine zones for tonight with gusts over 25 kt. Cannot
completely rule out a gale force gust this evening on the ocean
waters either.

For the ocean waters, SCA conds continue through Thursday, and at
least SCA conds for Thursday night as well. Didn`t want to extend
the SCA at this point as there is potential for some gales on the
ocean late at night. Being this would be a late 4th to 5th period
event, will allow the day shift to see new guidance and determine
whether gale headlines are appropriate. Otherwise, after a lull in
winds on the non-ocean waters, SCA conds become likely starting
Thursday evening. Sub-SCA conditions then probable Friday night
through Saturday night. SCA conditions potentially return for Sunday
and Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With full moon on today and SCA easterly flow tonight into Thu
AM ahead of approaching frontal system, there is potential for
scattered areas of minor coastal flooding with Thu morning high
tide for vulnerable areas along Jamaica Bay, western Great South
Bay and western LI Sound, and more isolated along NY/NJ harbor.


Tidal departures needed for minor coastal flooding are
near 2 to 2.5 feet of surge. An average of model surge guidance
shows localized departures up to near 2 feet for parts of the
Long Island shoreline, particularly within the South Shore
Bays as well as within the Southern Fairfield CT shorelines.
However, with the aforementioned SCA easterly flow leading into
the early Thursday high tide, the surge might end up being on
the higher side and above surge model averages. Therefore, the
minor coastal flooding may well be more widespread early
Thursday, especially within the South Shore Bays and along
portions of Western Long Island Sound.

Some beach flooding and escarpment possible during the Thu AM high
tide with elevated water levels and e to w sweep of 4 to 6 ft
breaking surf, but dune erosion threat appears limited at this
point.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Thursday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Thursday for NJZ002-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC/JMC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...