136
FXUS61 KOKX 110231
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The heat and humidity lowers slightly into mid week, followed by
a more meaningful drop late week.

2) Thunderstorm chances lower Tue and Wed, followed by an
increase in the thunderstorm chance on Thu.

3) Minor coastal flooding possible for some areas during the middle
of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A slight drop in humidity levels should commence Tuesday. Also
temperatures are expected overall to be a degree or two lower
during the day. This should lead to heat indices across a large
majority of the area to fall short of heat criteria, although a
few locations mainly across southern portions of the area may
flirt very briefly with heat criteria (heat index of 95) for an
hour or two. Therefore heat headlines will not be carried into
Tuesday. A more meaningful drop in the humidity levels are
anticipated into Wednesday morning. With temperatures and dew
point readings progged to be even lower on Wednesday heat
indices are progged to be mainly 85 to 90. On Thursday heat
indices are expected to be on either side of 90. Therefore at
this time heat headlines are not anticipated for the remainder
of the week as a more meaningful drop in humidity levels takes
place Friday into Saturday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
For Tue into Wed forcing appears minimal around convective
chances. Shortwaves currently are progged (via NWP and AI) to
stay just to the south. If shortwave energy gets further north
then convective chances would increase. Otherwise, the
convective chances increase into Thursday as heights begin to
fall some and cyclonic curvature increases in the mid levels,
and thus the greater chance of late day and evening convection.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Astronomical tides will increase with an approaching new moon on
Wednesday. Winds don`t appear to be much of a factor with the
evening/nighttime high tide cycles tonight through Wednesday night
when minor flooding would be possible. A blend of 50th percentile
NAEFS-based PETSS and NYHOPS seemed reasonable given recent trends.
Flooding is therefore not anticipated tonight, but levels should
come close to minor benchmarks for the south shore bays of Nassau
County and Queens as well as Southern Fairfield County. With the
astronomical tide a little higher Tuesday night, a Coastal Flood
Statement could be needed for these areas. A better chance of an
advisory would be during Wednesday night for these spots as flooding
would be more widespread, and other spots including parts of NY
Harbor and more of Western LI Sound could reach minor benchmarks as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period as a weak cold front passes across
the terminals late Tuesday.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Tuesday evening
from the NYC metro on west. Confidence is too low to include in
the TAF at this time.

Light SW-W winds will gradually veer to the WNW-NW Tuesday
morning before backing to the W-SW in the afternoon. Wind speeds
will be 9-12 kt in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts in the TAF may be off by 1-2 hours.

Isolated shower/thunderstorm possible Tuesday evening, but
confidence too low to include in the TAF at this time.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night-Wednesday night: Mainly VFR.

Thursday: Chance of showers and a few thunderstorms along with
MVFR, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Friday-Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt Friday afternoon

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels this week.
Ocean wave heights are not expected to exceed 3 ft or so.  A more
northerly component to the prevailing wind direction is expected
towards Friday and Friday night.

Rip Currents: Waves around 2 ft this week and winds generally 10 kt
or less will likely keep the rip risk low through Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE