038
FXUS61 KOKX 050256
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1056 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the west overnight will dissipate
over the area on Friday. Another cold front will approach and
move through from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Strong high
pressure will build in from the west for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Line of showers/tstms approaching from the west weakening as it
encounters the marine layer with gusty S flow over the NYC metro
area. Brief downpours with over 1 to 2 inches of rain have made
it into far wrn portions of the CWA (mainly SW portions of
Orange County), but may not make it too much farther east as
convection weakens. A few remnant showers may survive into S CT
and Long Island overnight. Associated QPF is light outside any
convective maxima, generally under a tenth of an inch,
especially east of the Hudson.

Conditions dry out toward daybreak, but remain relatively mild
and moist compared to recent nights, with overnight lows and
dewpts in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the work week comes to a close, the region remains on the
southeast periphery of the upper trough situated off to the NW.

Some low stratus around to start the day as the frontal
boundary washes out should erode into late morning, setting up
a warm September afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Deep S-SW
flow persists, and gusts 20-25 mph likely once again by the
afternoon with BL mixing above 800 mb. This should also help
nudge temperatures up a few degrees from previous days, highs
into the lower/mid 80s for most, with highest values across the
urban NE NJ corridor. With the warmth, humidity likely a bit
more noticeable as well, especially early in the day.
Conditions remain dry through the day and overnight into
Saturday morning, though another approaching frontal boundary
instigates shower activity ahead of it off to the west, which
could start to lower ceilings by daybreak over western portions
of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Very warm and humid on Saturday. Showers/tstms expected in the
  afternoon/evening, with potential for some to be strong/severe.

* Showers linger into Sunday especially across Long Island and
  southern CT.

* Dry and cooler weather expected for next week.

As a shortwave trough swings through the Great Lakes around the base
of a larger longwave trough, an associated cold front will approach
form the west Sat afternoon/night. Showers/tstms should develop in
the afternoon ahead of the front, and with sfc temps well into the
80s and dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 there should be enough
instability (MLCAPE 1500 J/kg) and deep layer shear (unidirectional
flow increasing to 40-50 kt in the mid levels) for organized
convection capable of producing strong to severe tstms especially
from western Long Island/SW CT and points north/west.

There is some uncertainty on timing of fropa going into Sat
night/Sunday with models developing a sfc wave along the front, and
the ECMWF slower in general vs the GFS. Fcst lies between the two,
with likely to categorical PoP Sat night, followed by chance PoP
most areas Sunday morning, continuing out east Sunday afternoon.

Dry and cooler wx expected thereafter for much of next week, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s/50s, as a large/strong high
pressure system of Canadian origin moves across from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front stalls off to the west overnight and gradually weakens
before dissipating over the area Friday morning.

VFR likely gives way to MVFR overnight at most terminals.  MVFR
conditions will be due to visibility in and showers early on,
otherwise expect some MVFR ceilings at 1 to 2 kft overnight into
Friday morning. Any embedded t-storms for the first half of the
overnight mainly for western terminals ends by 04-05z. Thereafter
mostly MVFR ceilings can be expected into the start of the morning
push. All terminals go to VFR towards mid morning, mainly by 12-13z.

Winds veer to the SW at most terminals overnight and will lighten a
little. Flow around 190 true on Friday. Gusts to around 20 kt,
possibly even up to 25 kt likely towards 17-18z Fri for some of the
city and coastal terminals. Gusts will then end toward mid evening
Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Thunder chances drop off towards 04z for KTEB and KEWR. There is
also uncertainty around the extent of MVFR conditions overnight into
the early morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR. S winds at 10-15G20kt early, gusts should end
later at night with winds holding around 10 kt.

Saturday: Cold frontal passage late with a chance for shwrs and
tstms. SW flow becoming NW.

Sunday: Becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA expanded to include the south shore bays and the ocean as
far E as Moriches Inlet, and also extended in time through most
of tonight for the harbor and until 6 AM elsewhere. Latest
guidance now indicates S flow with frequent gusts 25-30 kt for
those areas, and a few gusts up 25 kt may also occur on the
ocean farther east, as well as on Long Island Sound.

S winds may again gust close to 25 kt Fri afternoon/evening,
and ocean seas build toward 5 ft into Fri night. SCA may be
needed for these marginal conditions.

Conditions on Sat ahead of an approaching cold front will be
just shy of SCA criteria on the ocean, with S flow gusting
over 20 kt and seas just over 4 ft. Sub-SCA cond likely
thereafter on Sunday with cold fropa, also Min-Tue as high
pressure builds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting rainfall expected mainly NW of NYC tonight, with slight
chance of tstms. Another round of wetting rains expected from
Sat afternoon into Sunday morning, especially from the NYC metro
area north/west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms with a cold frontal passage Sat
afternoon and night could produce localized downpours capable
of causing minor nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage
locales, mainly from the NYC metro area north/west where event
total QPF ranges from 1/2 to 1 inch. The overall flash flood
risk is low.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have forecast a moderate rip current risk for Fri at the ocean
beaches, with 3 ft seas and S winds 10-15 kt. The risk may
become high late in the afternoon as S winds gust over 20 kt
and seas build to 4 ft.

A high rip current risk expected for Sat with seas in long
fetch S flow gusting over 20 kt remaining at 4 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ345-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...BG/JE
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...