182
FXUS61 KOKX 030618
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
218 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the first half of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will continue to build into the area through the
beginning of the week.

Cool temperatures this morning from near ideal radiational
cooling condition should rapidly warm with ample sunshine
expected. Temperatures should warm a bit more than yesterday
with high temperatures expected to be in the middle 80s for most
with upper 80s possible near the NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet conditions continue with another night of cool
temperatures expected given the abnormally dry airmass overhead.
Lows are expected to drop into the upper 50s for the interior
with low to middle 60s for coastal locations. Some patchy fog
remains possible for the coolest of locations.

Mostly sunny and dry conditions persist Monday and Tuesday with
slightly warmer temperatures. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will
be in the middle to upper 80s for most with a few locations
hitting 90 possible for NE NJ and the NYC metro. The airmass
remains relatively dry for the middle of summer so a relatively
comfortable feel to the air is expected with cool nights through
Tuesday night.

The only weather phenomena of note is the potential for some
smoke to move into the area on Monday. WHile much of this smoke
should be aloft, its possible for some of the fine particulates
to make it near the surface under a general sinking of the air
under high pressure. As of now, the only impact expected is the
presence of a possibly hazy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

***Key Points***

* Dry conditions are expected into the beginning of next weekend as
  offshore high pressure remains in control.

* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the lower
  to mid 80s, and lows mainly in the 60s. Humidity levels will
  remain comfortable.

The NBM was largely followed with this update.

A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the extended
period as global models and their respective ensembles advertise a
building upper ridge and high pressure at the surface through much
of the period. With strong ridging over the Four Corners region, a
few weak shortwaves will pass through the northeast ridge during the
period without much fanfare. The flow attempts to flatten some by
late Thursday into Friday, as the surface high retreats to the
northeastern coast. The upper ridge builds once again for the
beginning of next weekend. There is only a slight chance of
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon across far western portions of
Orange County as a weak shortwave passes to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through Sunday night.

VFR.

Light and variable to calm winds across the region overnight become
light northerly Sunday morning, and then S/SE at less than 10 kt
during the afternoon, with sea breeze enhancement.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind shift/sea breeze timing may vary by an hour or so Sunday.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday Night - Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions will persist for all of the forecast waters
through at least Tuesday night with a light flow as high
pressure settles over the area. By Wednesday, seas may approach
5 ft, especially well away from the coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk will be low for ocean beaches today and
Monday. Winds are going to be quite light through the forecast
period with wind speeds of mostly under 10 mph. Initially winds
are offshore but then become more onshore in the afternoon.
Ocean waves are expected to generally be around 1 to 2 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...