656
FXUS61 KOKX 181818
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
218 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through Tuesday then
gradually shift offshore through Wednesday night as a weakening
frontal system approaches from the west. Hurricane Erin will
pass well to the southeast on Thursday, bringing indirect
impacts mainly along the shoreline. High pressure will return by
late week, then a cold front will approach from the west late
this weekend. Please refer to National Hurricane Center
forecasts for further information on Erin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over southeast Canada will continue to gradually
build to the south through tonight. This will result in dry
conditions along with clearing skies and diminishing winds.
Overnight lows will range from around 50 across typically cooler
outlying locations to the lower 60s in the New York City metro
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Increasingly high surf and dangerous rip currents.

High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday before gradually
sliding offshore through Wednesday night. While conditions will
remain dry on Tuesday, models are increasingly indicating the
potential for at least a slight chance of showers Wednesday into
Wednesday night as a series of shortwaves associated with a
weakening frontal system cross the region. At this time the
best forcing and therefore the best chances of rain look to
remain north of the local area, but will have to keep an eye on
model trends as the daytime hours on Wednesday may end up with
more cloud cover and precipitation.

Temperatures will remain several degrees below normal through
the period, with daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 70s
and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s outside of the
immediate New York City metro.

See the Tides and Coastal Flooding section below for more
information on the potential for increasingly high surf and
dangerous rip currents through mid-week, and refer to the National
Hurricane Center for the latest information on Hurricane Erin.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Life threatening surf and rip currents Thursday into Friday.

* Widespread areas of beach flooding, dune erosion and localized
  overwashes along the ocean beachfront Thursday into Friday.

By Thursday, Hurricane Erin will be passing well to the SE. The
only sensible weather impact will be a brisk NE flow with
perhaps some gusts upwards of 35 mph along the eastern
coastline. Other indirect impacts will be felt along the
coastline; see the Tides/Coastal Flooding section for details.

Ridging at the sfc/aloft will build in after Erin`s departure
on Fri, with mostly clear skies and a flow shifting from N to
SE-S by afternoon/evening. This will allow temperatures to rise
back to normal levels Friday as well as a subtle increase in
moisture. Another frontal system may approach the area from the
west late this weekend with chance of showers and possibly a
tstm Sat night into Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pres builds N of the region thru Tue.

Improvement to VFR this aftn, then CIGS and VIS expected to
remain VFR thru the remainder of the TAF period.

NE/ENE winds veer to the E thru 00Z, then hold around E/ESE
thru Tue. Speeds generally around 10kt thru the period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ocnl gusts aob 20kt possible thru 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Rest of Tuesday: VFR with E/ESE flow.

Wednesday: Chance MVFR with shwrs and embedded tstms. E/SE
flow.

Thursday: Becoming VFR with NE winds 15-25kt.

Friday - Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory for New York Harbor, the Long Island
Sound, and the southern and eastern Long Island bays was allowed
to expire as winds have generally diminished below 25 kt. The
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters
through Wednesday night as seas are expected to continue to
build to 6-11 feet by Wednesday night. Persistent easterly flow
is expected across all waters through the day on Wednesday,
generally at 10-15 kt with some gusts up to 20 kt possible at
times on the ocean.

Rough conditions are expected to develop on the ocean mid to
late week as 15+ft sec long period swells build, peaking at
10-15+ft Thu Night. Increasingly dangerous conditions expected
at the inlets and entrance to E LIS through mid to late week.

SCA cond will continue into Thu and Fri on the ocean and also
the ern Sound, due to long period swells in advance of Hurricane
Erin. Gale-force wind gusts (30-35 kts) are possible on ocean
waters Thu into Thu night. Swell should peak Thu night at 10-15
ft on the ocean (highest points east up to 17 ft) and at 5-10 ft
on the Sound E of the CT River and Orient Point. Sea gradually
diminish thereafter but should still be at 5-7 ft even into
daytime Sat.

Please refer to National Hurricane Center forecasts for further
information on Erin.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The overall rip current for today should be moderate, though it
could increase to high by late day as long period swells (2 ft
@ 15 sec) from Hurricane Erin start to arrive. A high rip
current risk is forecast for Tuesday as the swell from Hurricane
Erin increases. Longer term, life- threatening surf and rip
currents expected for the rest of this week as building long
period swells from Erin continue, peaking on Thu/Fri.

The threat for beach flooding, beach erosion and escarpment and
areas of dune erosion will increase with successive high tides
Tue thru Thu night. Widespread areas of dune erosion are likely
with localized overwashes during the Thu evening high tide,
possibly Fri AM high tide, as very long period swells of 9-14 ft
@ 16-17 sec (highest east) arrive head on, producing surf at
least that high if not higher due to runup as they approach
shore and enter shallower water. This high surf will be
combined with elevated water levels as we approach a new moon.

Bias-corrected STOFS guidance in the longer term appears to be
gradually catching up to the situation, indicating widespread
minor coastal flooding for the Thu night high tide cycle and
more isolated flooding Fri evening as seas subside. Departures
only 1/2 ft higher (reasonable worst case) could lead to
moderate flooding in spots with both cycles.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FEB/BR
NEAR TERM...FEB
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FEB/BR
HYDROLOGY...FEB/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...