542
FXUS61 KOKX 021136
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will remain over the region
today, then moves offshore on Wednesday giving way to an
approaching front on Thursday. The frontal system will impact
the area Thursday night into Saturday night. High pressure
builds in from the west Sunday and lingers into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some patchy fog has formed, mainly across some of the river
valley locations inland. This is expected to mix out very
quickly this morning.

A weak upper low centered near the eastern Great Lakes this
morning will gradually lift northward up into eastern Canada
this period ahead of an amplifying upper trough across central
Canada. Conditions will remain dry with surface high pressure
weakening across the region. There could be a period of mid and
high level clouds late this afternoon into this evening, mainly
across eastern LI and SE CT. Daytime highs will continue to
remain on the cool side with highs in the mid 70s to around 80.
A weak easterly flow will help to maintain the presence of a
cooler, maritime airmass. Lows tonight will be back in the 50s
for all except the NYC metro, where lower 60s are expected. This
is still about 3 to 5 degrees below normal for highs and 5 to 8
degrees for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening high pressure moves offshore on Wednesday ahead of an
amplifying upper trough dropping across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. The latter of which will send a cold front toward
the area on Thursday, weakening as it approaches Thursday night
with the chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. The better
lift with the front will be to the NW, giving the Lower Hudson
Valley having the highest probability of seeing rain. It`s quite
possible this boundary washes out close to the area late Thursday
night into Friday morning as stronger jet energy rounds the base
of a highly anomalous upper low north of the Great Lakes. In fact,
heights across the Great Lakes down into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley are 2 to 4 SD below normal by this time. In response to
this energy, a second cold front approaches from the Midwest.

Temperatures during this time warm some with respect to highs,
closer to normal by Thursday. Winds also veer to the SSE ahead
of the cold front and become gusty on Thursday (up to 25 mph).
The flow will allow for increasing low-level moisture and
overnight lows by Friday morning also closer to normal in the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes for the long term, so the NBM was closely
followed.

Key Points:

*  A frontal system lingers in the area through at least Saturday
   night with possibly several chances of rain/storms Friday through
   Saturday afternoon.

*  High pressure with dry conditions expected to build back in from
   the west by Sunday, lingering into early next week.

*  Generally below average temperatures expected with high
   temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 Friday and Saturday.
   Highs drop into the low to middle 70s by Sunday and remain
   below average into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through the TAF period.

Light N/NE winds this morning increase to around 10 kt and
become SE in the afternoon.

Another chance of low stratus and patchy fog is possible tonight
with an onshore flow. Opted not to include in the TAFs at this
time due to low confidence but best time for any MVFR/IFR
stratus development is 06-12Z Wednesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of low stratus and patchy fog tonight and into the
Wednesday morning push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Any morning MVFR/IFR conditions with low stratus
become VFR.


Thursday: VFR during the day with S gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon.
SHRA and possible MVFR at night.

Friday: SHRA/MVFR possible mainly in the morning. S gusts 20-25kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR/shra.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Expect mainly sub-SCA conditions across the waters through the
end of the week. A building easterly swell today will bring seas
on the ocean to around 4 ft later today into Wednesday. Thereafter,
an approaching cold front could produce southerly gusts to
around 20 kt across the NY Bight on Thursday, especially for
those waters west of Fire Island Inlet. So there is small chance
that SCA conditions could be achieved. Once the front finally
pushes through, seas on the ocean may climb to 5 feet Saturday
night. Sub-SCA seas follow on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk today and Wednesday as ESE
swells build to 3-4 ft at 8-9 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...