982
FXUS61 KOKX 250250
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1050 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west into tonight, before
passing through on Monday. High pressure then gradually builds in
for the middle of the week. A frontal system may approach the
region Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Closed upper trough axis remains centered over the Great Lakes
as a surface cold front ahead of it slowly approaches tonight.

Winds ahead of the boundary are largely onshore from the south.
The front is well back across western PA as of 18Z, and forcing
remains weak locally, as is instability. A mid level cloud deck
ahead of the front has worked into the Hudson Valley and
northeast NJ, but only a few widely scattered light rain showers
have made it this far east, and CAMs aren`t indicating much in
the way of additional activity through tonight with the boundary
hanging back to the west. More likely, low stratus and areas of
fog may develop late with saturating low levels.

Meanwhile, a non tropical coastal area of low pressure skirts
the Carolina coast and passes just to the east of the area
tonight. Most guidance keeps the region dry from this system,
but a couple solutions do graze the LI Forks and SE CT with a
few showers overnight or early Monday morning as it passes
east, so will maintain at least slight chance PoPs here, with
overcast skies otherwise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Trough slowly begins to shift into the Northeast on Monday,
with a leading cold front moving through locally during the
morning hours, and an offshore coastal low passing 150 mi
southeast of Montauk.

Not anticipating widespread rainfall with the actual frontal
passage, and CAMs advertise only isolated showers in the early
morning as it moves through. Absent this, many, if not most,
remain dry. Any lingering fog or low stratus erodes through mid
morning, and remaining cloud cover attempts to break up as the
day progresses and the front works further offshore.

Soundings show a well-mixed BL developing, up to 750 mb, as
flow turns westerly behind the fropa. This should lead to gusts
20 to 25 mph much of the day. 925 mb are progged into the low
20s(C), which yields a rather warm and humid day prior to the
arrival of cooler air behind the front. Afternoon highs top the
low to mid 80s, or even a couple of degrees above normal for
late August. The drier, cooler air mass begins to advect in by
late day, and dew pts fall from the mid to upper 60s in the
afternoon, down into the 50s by the evening. Dry conditions
prevail Monday night with clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry conditions expected through Thursday, with slight shower
  chances Friday.

* Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for the period.

Decent model agreement through the week with a series of upper
troughs advecting through the northeast with little fanfare. High
pressure at the surface slowly makes its way east from the Central
Plains heading south of the area by late week. Thus, with the high
off to the west, northwest flow at the surface will dominate, and so
expecting dry and cooler conditions Tuesday through Thursday. By
Friday, an upper trough approaches from the west along with a weak
cold front. Precipitation chances do increase through the day on
Friday, but with better forcing to our north via the
aforementioned upper trough, not anticipating much in the way
of shower activity associated with the system at this point.

The NBM was followed for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front slowly approaches overnight and moves across the
terminals on Monday.

300-400 ft stratus starting to move over the south fork of Long
Island, so have bumped up the timing of LIFR cigs across the
eastern terminals. The question now is, how far west will the
low LIFR cigs reach. Still some uncertainty to whether or not it
reaches the NYC terminals.

Otherwise, most terminal are VFR, but we should start to see
conditions fall to MVFR and then IFR or lower after 06z. A line
of showers continues to move across central/eastern PA and NY
however these showers will enter a more stable environment and
should fall apart by the time they reach the NYC terminals.
Still can not rule out some showers at some of the terminals
late tonight into early Monday morning. Conditions improve
Monday morning back to MVFR then VFR.

Winds will be light and variable overnight, then become
SW and W Monday morning at 5 to 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR or lower conditions could occur earlier than indicated in
TAFs for tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: MVFR or lower possible, mainly east of
NYC. Scattered showers also possible

Tuesday - Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Extended Small Craft Advisory (SCA) on the coastal ocean waters
again until 2am as long period easterly swells continue, with
seas hanging near 5 ft. per recent buoy observations. Seas
gradually lower into tonight, before building back toward 5 ft
on waters east of Fire Island inlet late Monday afternoon with
increasing southerly swells. Additional SCA may be needed here
Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

Other than noted above, winds and waves are expected to remain
below advisory criteria through the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high risk for rip currents for the Atlantic Ocean beaches
has been extended through Monday. Ocean beach reports continue
to highlight dangerous surf zone conditions this evening. A
combination of southerly flow, long period 7-8 second swells and
4-5 ft swell looks to continue until later in the day.

For Tuesday, there is a moderate risk for rip currents at the
as a 3 to 4 ft swell continues.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DBR/DR
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...