949
FXUS61 KOKX 220551
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
151 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin continues to track northeast into the open
Atlantic ocean overnight. High pressure builds in thereafter
for the end of the week into at least the start of the weekend.
A frontal system approaches Sunday and moves through the area
Monday. High pressure then gradually builds in for the middle to
end of next week. Please refer to NHC forecasts for further
information on Hurricane Erin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Points

* Shoreline and coastal impacts will peak through around
  midnight, with a gradual improvement into Friday morning. See
  TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section below.

Hurricane Erin continues to track northeast into the open
Atlantic ocean overnight. Winds will gradually subside overnight
with gusts to 20 kt becoming occasional. Lows tonight will fall
into the 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points

* Minor shoreline impacts continue in the short term. See
  TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section below.

The pressure gradient weakens quickly on Friday as Hurricane Erin
moves farther east and high pressure builds in. Dry and sunny
conditions are expected Friday and Saturday with highs back in
the 80s. An approaching frontal system may bring showers to
extreme western portions of the area as early as late Saturday
night. Followed the NBM during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Key Points:

* Shower/thunderstorm chances late Sunday and Monday. Mainly dry
  conditions thereafter.

* Generally normal to slightly below normal temperatures for the
  period.

The global models are in decent agreement on the upcoming synoptic
pattern. Upper ridge axis shifts east of the area Sunday. A deep
closed low over eastern Canada with an h5 trough over the eastern
2/3 of the CONUS then follows for much of the rest of the extended
timeframe. This will keep the local area in predominately
west/southwest flow aloft.

At the sfc, a cold front approaches on Sunday into early Monday with
precipitation chances increasing from west to east Sunday afternoon.
PWATs do increase to 1-1.5" ahead of the front, which suggests the
possibility of heavier rainfall with any deeper convection. However,
depending on the timing of the frontal passage, which looks to be
late on Sunday into very early Monday, instability will be limited
per BUFKIT soundings, so not expecting much in the way of widespread
thunder. North and west of NYC would see the best chance of thunder,
late Sunday afternoon/evening. The front passes through the area on
Monday and is offshore by early Tuesday. High pressure then builds
back in from the Central Plains, for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hurricane Erin passes well east-southeast of the area overnight as
high pressure gradually builds from the west, then southwest later
today. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for further
information on Hurricane Erin.

VFR through the period. NE winds and gusts steadily lessen
overnight, but then increase to N 10-15g20kt for morning push. Winds
and gusts should then subside after 18-19z this afternoon. Weak late
day S seabreezes develop for most terminals, otherwise a
Light/variable S/SSW flow for the evening push.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts will be occasional overnight, becoming more frequent to 20kt
during morning push and continue into midday. Gusts may end as early
as 18-19z in the afternoon, and possibly 1-2 hours earlier. Winds
will likely be veered a bit more NE for KLGA. Late day S seabreeze
likely for JFK/KLGA, and SE for KEWR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late Friday night thru Saturday: VFR.

Sunday and Monday: Scattered showers Sun PM through Mon PM,
isolated tstm possible in the aft/eve. MVFR conds possible Sun
AM, and Sun night into Mon AM.

Tuesday: VFR

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning stair steps down from w to e overnight, with a
Small Craft Advisory in effect elsewhere.

Winds and seas are peaking at 35 to 40 kt gusts on the ocean
waters and 25 to 30 kt late this evening with significant wave
height of 14 to 18 feet and occasional waves 20+ feet. 5 to 9
ft waves likely occurring in far eastern Long Island Sound and
5 to 6 ft at the entrance to the NY Harbor.

Winds expected to decrease to SCA on the ocean water late
tonight into early Friday morning fro w to e, with seas
subsiding to 8 to 12 ft, and transitioning to primarily an
easterly swell with shortening period. Similarly conditions will
be improving on the nearshore waters as well.

Winds continue to decrease pretty on Friday, but the ocean will
likely need a Small Craft Advisory through Saturday or Saturday
night for lingering 5ft seas. SCA conditions may linger on the
ocean waters Sunday with elevated seas. Conditions then remain
below Small Craft Advisory thereafter into mid next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A High Surf Advisory and High Risk for Rip Currents remain in
effect for all Atlantic Ocean Beaches through Friday as
residual swell from Hurricane Erin continues a life threatening
surf and rip current threat.

The high rip current risk will likely continue through SAturday
with residual long period 4 ft easterly swells mixed with a
couple of smaller S/SE wave components.

Surf is peaking at this time, and expected to subside to 5 to 9
ft across western beaches and 6 to 10 ft across eastern beaches
Friday morning, and then gradually fall further to 3 to 6 ft
for western beaches and 4 to 7 ft for eastern beaches by Friday
evening.

The threat for widespread areas of dune erosion and localized
overwashes has ended for the evening high tide. Areas of dune
erosion and beach flooding are expected for the Friday morning
high tide, but the potential for localized overwashes is low as
water levels will be lower than this evening. The threat for
dune erosion will become more scattered for the Friday evening
high tide, with beach erosion and escarpment the primary threat
with a west to east sweeping surf.

The threat for widespread moderate coastal flooding has come to
and end for the southern bays of NYC/LI, with generally minor
to localized moderate flooding threat for the north facing
exposed shoreline areas along the south fork and Orient Point
due to to enhanced wave action through around midnight.
Elsewhere minor coastal flood impacts along western LI Sound
through around 1am.

Additional rounds of minor flooding are expected with Friday
morning and Friday evening`s high tide cycles, particularly for
the southern bays of LI and NYC, and along the oceanfront.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ072-074-075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM
     EDT this afternoon for NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 PM
     EDT this afternoon for NYZ080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ335-338.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...