554
FXUS61 KOKX 031847
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
247 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours
possible this afternoon/evening and again late tonight into early
Friday morning.

2) Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday afternoon
into the early evening.

3) No hazardous weather expected for Labor Day Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Uncertainty remains with exact coverage and timing of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. The area will continue to
destabilize this afternoon with latest CAMs in decent agreement of
reaching about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, mainly for northeast NJ, NYC
and the Lower Hudson Valley. They have also shown these areas
being able to break the current cap unlike much of the guidance
hinted at 24+ hours ago. This is believable especially given
the clearing that is happening across western locations.
Additionally, guidance continues to show impressive shear with
about 40 to 45 knots of 0-6km bulk shear, which would help
organize storms. The uncertainty is mainly coming from lack of a
significant trigger. There will be a pre-frontal trough
approaching as well as very weak impulses in the flow aloft,
which should be enough for at least very isolated activity. The
SPC maintains the marginal risk, which matches up with the
thinking that this will be isolated. Additionally, any storm
will be able to produce heavy downpours, but should be fast
moving. While an isolated flash flood can not be completely
ruled out, the main threat here is minor urban and poor drainage
flooding.

Additionally, the 12z CAMs now agree with previous runs of the HRRR
about the potential for a decaying convective system moving into or
near the area late tonight into Friday morning. Guidance notoriously
struggles with exact placement of these systems, as seen even over
the past several days. As of right now, the potential is there for
an isolated damaging wind gust should the system hold together.
This activity is currently over Michigan.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another convective complex approaches from the west on Friday. Most
of the guidance has this system tracking well south of our area, but
it is worth keeping an eye on given the last few runs of the
HRRR, which keeps this system closer to our area. Kept slight
chance of showers/thunderstorms in the forecast. Should any
thunderstorms occur, it is unlikely they will be severe at this
time.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Cooler and mainly dry conditions expected for Labor Day Weekend.
Lower dewpoints will also give the air a more comfortable feel.

With an upper low over the Canadian Maritimes, some wraparound
moisture from offshore low pressure and weak instability may trigger
scattered showers Saturday afternoon/evening. Other than this, dry
conditions are forecast through Labor Day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves across late tonight.

MVFR stratus lingers into this afternoon across CT terminals
but has scattered out elsewhere. An eventual improvement to VFR
is expected for all terminals by late this afternoon.

Thunderstorm chances remain within the TAF period but have
lowered compared to previously forecast, relatively higher
chances for late tonight near the frontal passage. Confidence
low on shower and thunderstorm timing and placement. Brief MVFR
to IFR possible with showers and thunderstorms.

Winds are generally W-SW near 10-15 kt with some gusts up to
near 20 kt this afternoon. The winds decrease tonight to closer
to 5-10 kt, become more NW but for some terminals, wind
direction will be more variable. Winds generally W-NW near 10 kt
for Friday.


       NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction could occasionally be 20-30 degrees off from TAF
this afternoon.

Amendments likely for shower and thunderstorm timing, could be
2-4 hours off from TAF.

MVFR possible early Friday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
afternoon into early evening with brief MVFR possible.

Saturday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through early
next week. There is potential for 25-30 kt wind gusts and 5-6ft seas
towards the middle to end of next week ahead of and behind a strong
cold frontal passage.

Rip Currents:

Lingering 2ft 6s S/SE swell will continue to bring a moderate
risk of rip currents to ocean beaches today. Thereafter, a lack
of significant wind or swell will lead to a low rip current risk
for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JT