907
FXUS61 KOKX 221720
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
120 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly pushes across today. High pressure gradually
builds tonight into Wednesday and remains in control through
Thursday night. A frontal system will move across the area late
Friday into Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
forecast remains on track.

Lingering low clouds and fog along SE CT coast and SE LI coast
should continue to diminish. Otherwise, a warm day is expected
outside of the immediate coastlines. Widespread middle and
upper 70s are expected, with only perhaps the south fork of LI
with some localized 60s right at the waterfront. A few spots in
NE NJ could very well get to 80 for max temperatures.

For tonight under clear skies look for a fairly mild night. There
really won`t be that much of an airmass change with what`s left of a
cold front slowly sliding through. Under mostly clear skies with
high pressure slowly beginning it build from the west look for light
winds and near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Lows
should range from the middle 40s in far NW interior sections, to the
middle 50s across the metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is expected to settle nearby for mid week. This should
lead to large scale subsidence overall. The upper level jet is
progged to remain over Northern New England and into the Saint
Lawrence River Valley up to the north. With the area on the southern
side of the polar jet temperatures should continue to run above
normal temperatures wise, especially during the day Wednesday. A
deep layer W to NW flow should preclude the formation of strong sea
breeze development. Although, by late in the afternoon on Wednesday
there may be some localized sea breeze development for a few coastal
locations. Maximum temperatures once again on Wednesday should get
well into the 70s in most places, with perhaps a few 60s across some
eastern coastal communities.

High pressure settles over the area Wednesday night with mostly
clear skies and light winds. Temperatures are expected to bottom out
in the 40s in the outlying areas, with some lower and middle 50s
across the metro.

High pressure slowly gets further east on Thursday. A return flow of
shorts will attempt to set up. With the synoptic flow expected to be
fairly light, look for a hybrid sea breeze to develop with a
southerly flow off the cooler ocean during the day. By late in the
afternoon a wide spread in temperatures should be anticipated, with
mainly 60s and a few middle and upper 50s across coastal and eastern
coastal sections, with 70s across western and interior locations.
Temperatures are expected to be considerably cooler across eastern
coastal sections for the late day and early evening with a wind off
the colder ocean.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Global models continue to fluctuate with the timing of the frontal
system for late Friday into Saturday. The 00Z GFS is the fastest of
the globals, by about 12h. The GEFs supports a slower solution like
the model consenus. The timing seems to hinge on the complex
interaction of southern branch PAC NW energy and multiple pieces of
northern branch energy dropping across central Canada toward the end
of this week. Plan to stay close to the NBM during this time.

High pressure offshore at the start of this period will continue to
retreat out into the Atlantic while the aforementioned frontal
system brings a chance of showers into the area Friday afternoon
with the most likely timeframe after midnight Friday through the day
on Saturday. Marginal instability could result in isolated
thunderstorm north and west of the NYC metro Saturday afternoon.
However, onshore flow and weak lapse rates should limit coverage.
High pressure then builds in from the west Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures remain above normal through Saturday, warmest Thursday
night through Friday night (5 to 10 degrees). A return closer to
normal is expected Sunday into Monday behind the frontal system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front moves across the terminals through this evening.
High pressure then builds in through Wednesday.

VFR through the TAF period.

South coastal terminals (KJFK, KISP, KBDR, and KGON) will have
winds SSW this afternoon around 10 kt. Elsewhere, winds will
continue to become WSW-W 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt
possible. Winds could also become NW at times well NW of NYC
terminals. Winds at all terminals will become WNW-NW this
evening with speeds settling to around 10 kt before diminishing
overnight.

The flow may become light N overnight before becoming NW
Wednesday morning, then backing towards the W-WSW in the
afternoon. Sea breezes are likely at coastal terminals in the
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds could fluctuate between SW and W at KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA
this afternoon.

Timing of WSW-W wind shift at JFK may be off by 1-2 hours.

End time of gusts at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB may be off by 1-2
hours.

Timing adjustments to Wednesday afternoon sea breeze likely.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR during the day. A chance of MVFR and showers, at
night.

Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible Saturday. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
There could be a few gusts to around 20 kt with a few marginal small
craft gusts on some of the eastern and south shore bays of LI today,
otherwise sub advisory conditions will prevail through Thursday
night. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
Friday in a weak pressure regime. The next chance for SCA conditions
will be Friday night into Saturday with a frontal system moving
across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through early next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/MW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW