439
FXUS61 KOKX 231536
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1036 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control today and moves offshore
tonight into Monday. A weak cold front moves through late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak high pressure briefly returns
Wednesday before a quick moving frontal system likely affects
the region Wednesday might into Thursday. This will be followed
by a series of cold fronts passing through the region Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments made with this update, primarily for hourly
temperatures which are running a little warmer than previously
forecast. Nudged the high temperature forecast for much of the
area by a degree or two.

Surface high pressure builds over the region today behind a
mid level trough. With nearly zonal upper flow, a weak
shortwave approaches late in the day and will bring some mid and
high level moisture, with a round of cloudiness. High temperatures
will be near normal levels in the lower to middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level shortwave passes through the northeast tonight
with mid and high level moisture, while at the surface high
pressure gradually moves offshore. Weak warm advection sets up
late tonight with a light flow through the boundary layer. With
the cloud cover limiting radiational cooling and the weak warm
advection overnight lows will be near or just above normal.

Monday a return flow sets up with increasing low level warm
advection into Monday night. Monday`s temperatures will be above
normal especially inland. However, with the southerly flow over
cooler ocean waters, highs along the coast may fall short of the
forecast highs. Clouds increase Monday night as yet another more
amplified shortwave moves quickly across the northern tier and
through the northeast Tuesday. With the warmup continuing and
cloud cover temperatures will be 5 to near 10 degrees above
normal. Little frontal forcing and limited moisture, with the
lower levels remaining dry, will keep slight chance
probabilities, and with the warm air any precipitation that does
occur will be all liquid.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures will likely run 5 to 10 degrees above normal
  Wednesday and Thursday. A return to more seasonable temps for
  Fri/Sat, and possibly below normal to end the weekend.

* Mainly dry conditions are expected through mid week. A quick
  moving frontal system will likely affect the region Wed Night into
  Thursday.

Following a passing cold front from a passing low to our north,
Tuesday night will trend drier with decreasing clouds. Winds will be
mainly light from the NW. Given the light NW flow and skies becoming
clear, some radiational cooling may take place cooling many into the
upper-30s to around 30. NW flow will continue into Wednesday morning
before turning west Wednesday afternoon, then eventually back to SW
Wednesday night. Temperatures will continue to be several degrees
above seasonable levels Wednesday through Thursday.

Thereafter, general model agreement in further longitudinal
amplification of troughing across the Eastern US for late week
period in response to a more vigorous PAC shortwave diving through
the Central US into the southern Mid Atlantic. ECE and GEFS coming
into better agreement with this trough amplitude/timing, and
depicting a progressive and mild frontal system moving through the
region Thu/Thu night. A shot of Canadian air and return to more
seasonable temps on Friday, with perhaps a few rain/snow showers as
trough axis moves through early on Friday.

Better general agreement in polar troughing exerting more influence
on the NE US for the second half of the weekend into early next
week, in wake of a clipper system tracking through southern
Ontario/Quebec and northern New England on Saturday. This clipper
system could bring another chance for rain/snow. The polar trough
would signal a return to below normal temps during this time
period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure to the south of the area will move offshore late
tonight into early Monday, giving way to low pressure passing
north of the Great Lakes on Monday.

W Winds around 10 kt through the afternoon, possibly back to the
SW along the coast. Winds diminish in the evening, becoming
light and variable and remain so into tonight. Winds S 5-10 kt
after daybreak tomorrow.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may back to the SW at KJFK this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of afternoon and evening showers
and MVFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Rain showers and MVFR possible. Mixed rain/snow showers
possible at KSWF.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient remains weak through Monday with high
pressure in control. With the high moving offshore Monday into
Monday night, and with the approach of a weak cold front,
southerly winds will increase late Monday into Monday night.
With warmer air moving over the cold ocean waters during this
time mixing will be limited with gusts also limited, with gusts
nearing 25 kt for a brief period Monday night. A weak cold front
crosses the waters late Tuesday into Tuesday night with sub-
advisory conditions continuing through the period.

Sub SCA conds continue Tue Night into Wed as weak high pressure
builds. SCA criteria is not expected to be met through the
start of the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR/DW
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET