954
FXUS61 KOKX 200644
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
244 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front pushes through the area this morning, followed by a
cold frontal passage this evening. High pressure builds in Monday
into Tuesday, and centers over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The high shifts offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. A
low passing into east Quebec Friday will bring through a cold front
late Friday into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm front is approaching from the south and currently looks
to be over southern NJ. Aloft, a shortwave is approaching from
the west and can be seen well on satellite digging into western
PA. Current radar is pretty quiet but activity is expected to
increase as we head towards sunrise given the approach of these
two features. Latest CAMs seem to be more excited about strength
and coverage of any activity this morning over eastern portions
of the area like Long Island and southeast CT. This is likely
due to timing of the shortwave and instability being strongest
across the eastern areas. Severe weather is not expected with
the activity this morning, but with pwats nearing 2 inches heavy
downpours are possible. These will likely occur over locations
that can handle heavier rain and at this time there are no
hydrological concerns other than some minor poor drainage
flooding.

During the daytime hours moisture continues to increase and with
expected heating under mostly sunny skies we likely warm to the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Even with lowering dewpoints due to NBM
high bias, Max Apparent Ts are in the upper 90s with isolated 100.
This is below the one day Heat Advisory criteria.

With a cold front approaching late in the day there is a threat
for severe weather since we should be able to destabilize well.
Latest CAMs show MLCAPE values just ahead of the front up to
1500-2000 J/kg. Additionally, decent shear is available with 30
to 35 kt of 0-6km bulk shear. A few limiting factors which are
causing a bit of uncertainty is no real strong upper support and
more of a skinny CAPE profile with weak lapse rates. Even with
a bit of uncertainty, scattered severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out and a slight risk has been maintained across the same
areas and previous forecasts, NYC north and west. The primary
threat is damaging wind gusts.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely done by midnight and drier
air is filtered in behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some of the more comfortable weather days of the summer are expected
in the short term period with dry conditions, sunny skies, 80 degree
highs and cool nights.

As high pressure builds in on Monday the pressure gradient will
briefly be tight and a breezy northwest flow is expected at least on
Monday morning. Some decent mixing is seen in forecast soundings,
but with winds not too strong aloft only expecting about 20 mph
gusts at the surface.

The high will bring with it a cooler and drier airmass. NBM was
followed for highs. Monday highs will be about normal and for
Tuesday they will be a few degrees below normal. Dewpoints and lows
were adjusted slightly to account for NBM biases. Monday night could
be the coolest night in a while with low to mid 50s possible across
the interior and upper 50s to mid 60s elsewhere. Dewpoints look
to bottom out in the 40s and low 50s Monday night. At this time
it looks like Tuesday night will be a bit warmer due to a
return flow kicking in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

 * Temps climb Wed into Thu. Heat index may exceed 100 by Fri.

 * Dry through Thu night.

 * Showers & thunderstorms possible with cold front Fri/Fri
   night.

In the upper-levels, a ridge builds in from the west and
amplifies through Wednesday night. This ridge then flattens
Thursday into Thursday night. Shortwave energy passes late
Friday into Friday night.

At the surface, high pressure centers over the area into
Wednesday, then shifts offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. A
low passing into east Quebec Friday moves into the North
Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. This low brings through a
cold front late Friday into Friday night.

Wednesday through Friday, temperatures will warm each day in
response to the high moving east and higher heights aloft. Heat
index values may exceed 95 on Thursday for parts of the area, then
exceed 100 for large portions of the area on Friday.

With ample heating, shortwave energy passing aloft, high dewpoints &
atmospheric moisture, and lift from an approaching/passing cold
front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Friday
into early Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front approaches from the southwest overnight and passes
through after daybreak. A cold front follows late afternoon/evening.

Spotty shower activity along with MVFR cigs for most terminals
overnight, continuing into Sunday morning. Low prob for IFR cigs.

There will be a scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm threat
overnight into the morning push with the highest confidence at the
coastal terminals east of NYC/NJ metro.

Drying conditions and becoming VFR for the second half of Sunday
morning. A isolated-scattered line of convection is then expected
between 19Z and 02Z along and ahead of the approaching cold front,
with a severe wind gust threat. Cold front will clear KSWF around
23Z, NYC terminals 01Z, and LI and CT terminals 01-02Z.

Winds will be light S/SE or variable overnight into the morning. SW
winds develop and increase to around 10kt by afternoon. Winds become
NW Sunday evening behind the cold front 10-15kt with a few G20kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low and sparse coverage of TSRA between 08z through Sun AM push.
MVFR conditions likely through the AM push. Low prob of IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night into Monday: Mainly VFR. NW winds 10-15g20kt.

Monday Night through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves look to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through the week with a weak pressure gradient in place. However,
there is potential for strong to possibly a few severe thunderstorms
late this afternoon and evening. Locally stronger wind gusts and
higher waves are possible in any thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At this time, there are no hydrologic concerns through the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Mainly a low rip current risk today, with the exception being
for the eastern Suffolk ocean beaches where a moderate risk is
more likely by afternoon with lingering E to SE 8 second period
swells. A low rip current risk is expected for all ocean beaches
on Monday with more of a land breeze out of the northwest.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...