262
FXUS61 KOKX 081149
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
749 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will swing through this morning and pass east by
early afternoon. A large dome of high pressure will then build in
from tonight into Thursday, settle over the area Thursday night
into Friday, then begin to move east on Saturday. A coastal storm
could impact the area from Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
At 7 AM radar showed steadier showers north/west of NYC, with a
fine line of heavier downpours over the lower Hudson Valley and
northern NJ. Cold front was still NW of this activity, running
from S of KALB to E of KMSV to E of KMPO. Air mass over the
area in the warm sector is on the humid side with dewpoints in
the 60s, with SW winds gusting to 20-25 kt in the NYC metro area
and near the coast.

Shower activity has consolidated somewhat as it encounters a
weak instability axis closer to the coast, moving eastward
into the NYC metro area through mid morning, across Long
Island and southern CT into late this morning. Fcst soundings
show a couple hundred J/kg of SBCAPE, with deep layer moisture
(PW up to 1.8 inches) and moist adiabatic lapse rates along with
forced ascent ahead of the approaching cold front, so even
though radar returns look meager attm do expect some heavier
embedded showers and some isolated rumbles of thunder to develop
this morning ahead of the front.

Front should clear ern sections close to or shortly after 16Z,
and there could be some lingering showers early this afternoon
even after cold fropa from NYC east. Skies clear fairly quickly
thereafter, with a NW-N wind gusting to 20-25 mph.

Temps today will not be nearly as warm as recent days, with
highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Expect winds to diminish only somewhat tonight, which should
limit extent of radiational cooling even under clear skies.
Low temps tonight should range from around 50 in/near NYC to
the 40s most elsewhere, and reaching the upper 30s in parts of
Orange County. Highs on Thu will be the coolest of the season
thus far, with highs only in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

As the high settles over the area Thu night, clear skies and
diminishing winds will promote strong radiational cooling, with
low temps in the 40s only in the NYC metro area, with 30s most
elsewhere, and sub freezing temperatures across much of the
interior where a freeze watch is not in effect, and across
parts of the Long Island Pine Barrens.

Temps moderate somewhat Fri into Fri night, with highs 60-65 and
lows mostly in the 40s to lower 50s, with a few upper 30s in
some of the interior valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* High pressure will move east on Saturday.

* Potential is increasing for a coastal storm to impact the area
  from Sunday into Monday with strong winds, coastal flooding,
  and some heavy rainfall.

* Temps will be close to mid October norms.

Model guidance is trending toward the idea of low pressure
developing off the SE coast on Sat moving NNE to a position off
the Mid Atlantic coast early next week. Earlier model forecasts
had shown an upper ridge developing atop the storm over the
Northeast and shunting it more to the south, which would have
dealt more of a glancing blow to the area with some gusty winds
and little to no rainfall, but they have now trended away from
that and toward the idea of a nrn stream closed low digging SE
through the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley, preventing upper
ridging from shunting the storm south, pulling the storm NNE
and even stalling it off the Mid Atlantic coast on Mon as the
two systems phase aloft. This increases the potential for strong
winds and periods of heavy rain Sunday night into Mon,
especially closer to the coast. Reasonable worst case scenarios
attm are for winds reaching advy criteria with gusts over 45 mph
over a good portion of the area, perhaps closer to warning
criteria with gusts closer to 60 mph across eastern Long Island,
and 1-2 inches of rain. See the Tides/Coastal Flooding section
below for possible coastal impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front.

MVFR in shra for most terminals before improvement to VFR late
this morning/early afternoon, but some IFR this morning mainly
outside of the city terminals. VFR then continues tonight.

W-NW winds bcmg NNW by late morning. Gusts 20-25kt through this
afternoon, with the gusts lingering into this evening for some
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may vary from WSW to NW before stabilizing more NNW at
14-15z. Occasional gusts 26-29kt possible. End time of gusts may
be off by a couple of hours tonight for KEWR and KTEB, and there
is a chance that gusts are only occasional at most overnight for
KLGA and KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. N gusts around 20 kt, mainly in the morning.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain. NE gusts 25-35kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA expanded to include the central/ern sound where nearshore
obs on the CT coast were gusting over 25 kt. SCA continues
today for the ocean and south shore bays, with gusts up to 25 kt
and ocean seas as high as 5-6 ft. Post-frontal N flow should
bring SCA cond to all waters tonight, with gusts 25-30 kt and
ocean seas remaining at 5-6 ft. These conditions should last
into Thu morning on the ocean.

A coastal storm has potential to bring sustained gale force
winds and gusts to storm force on the ocean, and gale force
gusts elsewhere. Seas could build to 15-20 ft on the ocean, 8-12
ft on the Sound waters E of Orient Point, 5-10 ft at the NY
Harbor entrance, and 5-6 ft on the central Long Island Sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Despite rainfall through this morning, and potential for some
heavy rain with a coastal storm early next week, there are no
hydrologic concerns attm as dry antecedent conditions have
prevailed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Issued statement for the south shore of Nassau NY and Fairfield
CT as water levels could briefly touch minor thresholds this
morning. N flow should limit water levels somewhat on Thu, but
as winds turn E on Fri minor flooding looks possible for these
areas and also for Newark Bay.

Potential for a coastal storm capable of producing widespread
moderate flooding and beach erosion on Sunday/Monday has
increased, via the combo of high astronomical tides associated
with yesterday`s full moon, and surge generated by strong NE
flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ335-338-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG