069
FXUS61 KOKX 101900
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
300 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for primarily
western portions of the area, including the NYC metro and
Nassau County on Long Island until 9 pm. The heat advisory that
was in effect for portions of the area has been discontinued.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The heat and humidity lowers slightly into mid week, followed by
a more meaningful drop late week.

2) Strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. Chances higher
further west. Thunderstorm chances lower Tue and Wed, followed by an
increase in the thunderstorm chance on Thu.

3) Minor coastal flooding possible for some areas during the middle
of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
After showers and storms clear the region tonight a slight drop in
humidity levels should follow into Tuesday. Also temperatures are
expected overall to be a degree or two lower during the day. This
should lead to heat indices across a large majority of the area to
fall short of heat criteria, although a few locations mainly across
southern portions of the area may flirt very briefly with heat
criteria (heat index of 95) for an hour or two. Therefore heat
headlines will not be carried into Tuesday. A more meaningful drop in
the humidity levels are anticipated into Wednesday morning. With
temperatures and dew point readings progged to be even lower on
Wednesday heat indices are progged to be mainly 85 to 90. On
Thursday heat indices are expected to be on either side of 90.
Therefore at this time heat headlines are not anticipated for the
remainder of the week as a more meaningful drop in humidity levels
takes place Friday into Saturday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Unfortunately confidence has not increased much around coverage and
how far east stronger to severe storms ultimately get. CAMs have not
initialized well at all with upstream convective activity, thus
lending little confidence on the convective outcome for the area
through the first half of tonight. Mesoanalysis shows the
instability axis migrating from west to east out of PA. There
remains a question as to how unstable things ultimately get,
especially further north across the area into the Hudson Valley.
SPC maintained a slight to marginal risk for most of the area,
with far western portions of the area in a slight risk with the
relatively higher chance at seeing severe weather. This was
followed up with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch after collaboration
with neighboring WFOs, mainly for the western half of the
region, with the NYC metro and Nassau County on LI also included
in the watch. The main threat with any storms are strong to
damaging wind gusts. A minimal hail and tor risk exists along
the western periphery of the area into this evening. The
difference for this circumstance compared to previous convective
set ups is higher shear being forecast, and thus a relatively
higher chance of storm organization. CAPE appears to be more
than sufficient. The biggest question is how far convection can
survive as it gets further east. PWATs should run at 1.75 to 2
inches, so instantaneous rainfall rates should be high with any
convective cores. However, storms should move relatively quickly
and the potential for repeating storms doesn`t appear to high.
Although trends in storm merger potential will need to
monitored. Overall the flash flood potential appears minimal
with more of an emphasis on minor nuisance urban related
flooding with any convective activity.  Thunderstorm activity
should wane from 22 to 02z from west to east.

For Tue into Wed forcing appears minimal around convective chances.
Shortwaves currently are progged (via NWP and AI) to stay just to
the south. If shortwave energy gets further north then convective
chances would increase. Otherwise, the convective chances increase
into Thursday as heights begin to fall some and cyclonic curvature
increases in the mid levels, and thus the greater chance of late day
and evening convection.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Astronomical tides will increase with an approaching new moon on
Wednesday. Winds don`t appear to be much of a factor with the
evening/nighttime high tide cycles tonight through Wednesday night
when minor flooding would be possible. A blend of 50th percentile
NAEFS-based PETSS and NYHOPS seemed reasonable given recent trends.
Flooding is therefore not anticipated tonight, but levels should
come close to minor benchmarks for the south shore bays of Nassau
County and Queens as well as Southern Fairfield County. With the
astronomical tide a little higher Tuesday night, a Coastal Flood
Statement could be needed for these areas. A better chance of an
advisory would be during Wednesday night for these spots as flooding
would be more widespread, and other spots including parts of NY
Harbor and more of Western LI Sound could reach minor benchmarks as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A surface trough moves through late day into the evening,
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area.

Outside of IFR/MVFR within showers and thunderstorms, mainly VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period.

PROB30s and TEMPOs are in TAFs to cover the showers and
thunderstorms. Looking for most activity to traverse the
terminals between 20Z and 01Z with KGON having lesser chances
of this activity. Coverage decreases and shifts farther south of
the region 02Z-04Z.

Southerly winds around 10 kt become more W-NW tonight into
Tuesday.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

PROB30/TEMPO TSRA timing could be off by 1-2 hours. Also
possible for an amendment to FM group for TSRA this evening.

Possible amendments later to include mention of gusts to near
35-50KT and IFR visibilities for any strong to severe tstorms
between 20Z and 02Z.

There is marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms,
mainly between 20Z and 02Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday night: Mainly VFR.

Thursday: Chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of MVFR. SW-W wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into
evening.

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels this week.
Ocean wave heights are not expected to exceed 3 ft or so.  A more
northerly component to the prevailing wind direction is expected
towards Friday and Friday night.

Rip Currents: Waves around 2 ft this week and winds generally 10kt
or less will likely keep the rip risk low thru Tue.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE