841
FXUS61 KOKX 041501
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1001 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through this afternoon, followed by
strong high pressure building from the west tonight into Friday.
The high will pass east Friday night as weak low pressure
passes well to the south Friday night and heads well out to sea
on Saturday. A cold front will move through Sunday night, with
Arctic high pressure building in behind it. This high will
likely remain in control through early next week. Low pressure
may impact the area Wednesday as it passes to the north and
west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* A dry cold frontal passage will take place this afternoon.

* Low wind chills and record low temps possible at some spots
  tonight.

Approaching front today should come through in split fashion,
with a pre-frontal trough roughly around midday, then the actual
cold front later this afternoon into early this evening. Model
fcst soundings are much drier than earlier cycles due to
downslope flow and presence of drier air aloft, so have removed
mention of precip despite marginally favorable parameters
showing weak low level instability and minimal SSQ parameter
values which can sometimes work well even for forecasting snow
showers. Think there will be mostly virga with fropa, and
wouldn`t entirely rule out a stray flurry well NW of NYC from
about 18Z-21Z with the actual cold frontal passage.
Streamers from the Great Lakes following fropa are unlikely to
make it into the area this evening, but are still something
worth monitoring.

Temps reaching the upper 30s/lower 40s this afternoon will
plummet tonight, reaching the single digits in some spots well
inland, teens most elsewhere, and the lower 20s in/just outside
NYC and out by Montauk. Some record low temps may be approached
or set.

Winds should veer/increase veer today with the approach and
passage of the pre-frontal trough and actual cold front, with W
flow 10-15 gusting up to 20 mph this morning, then WNW flow
15-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph this afternoon, and NW flow
20-25 mph gusting to 25-35 mph late today into this evening
after fropa. Winds then quickly diminish late tonight as high
pressure starts to build in. Tonight`s winds in combination
with falling temps will lead to wind chills in the single digits
and teens as early as this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Cold conditions continue, especially daytime Friday.

* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with
  some light snow/rain Friday night into Saturday.

Temps on Fri as the high builds across will only reach the
mid/upper 20s inland, lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid 30s
across eastern Long Island.

Still maintaining a 30-40 PoP as the precip shield with a srn
stream low passing off Hatteras and moving nearly due E out to
sea skirts the area. Precip type should be mostly light snow
with little to no accumulation Fri night, then light rain or a
rain/snow mix on Sat as temps warm and mid levels dry out.

Low temps Fri night and Sat night will be mostly in the 20s to
lower 30s. Highs on Sat will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Mainly dry conditions with below normal temperatures expected early
  next week.

* A cold air mass appears likely Sunday night through Tuesday. Highs
  on Monday may struggle to rise above freezing even down to the
  coast.

A stronger cold front will move across the area Sunday night
that will usher in a cold air mass for early next week. The
cold air looks to hang around into Tuesday. Lows Monday look to
fall into the teens and low 20s with highs on Monday in the
upper 20s/lower 30s. Wind chills will be as low as the single
digits well inland and teens elsewhere both Sunday night and Mon
night.

Lows Tuesday morning may be in the teens for much of the area,
with highs moderating a bit into the 30s. Moderating
temperatures are signaled with the latest model consensus
indicating highs rebounding into upper 30s inland and lower/mid
40s near the coast.

A clipper system may move across the Northeast on Wednesday,
but this is a week out and models/ensembles differ on timing and
strength of the low pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves through this afternoon. High pressure then builds
in from the west through tonight and settles over the area Friday
morning.

VFR prevails. Any light snow showers this afternoon, and possibly as
early as midday for KSWF continue to look less likely. Only carrying
a PROB30 for KSWF for -SHSN and stronger winds with cold frontal
passage this afternoon.

West winds increase through the day, especially with the cold
frontal passage for all terminals this afternoon. The winds will
gradually go more WNW to NW later this afternoon into the evening
push. Peak winds will likely occur around the 20-22z timeframe for
most terminals, an hour earlier for the more western terminals.
Winds and gusts begin to diminish some around 00Z this evening with
the gusts ending late tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Light snow / rain showers look less likely at this time and have
kept out of the TAFs. Some flurries and light snow / rain showers
can not be ruled out this afternoon, but will likely not cause any
vsby restrictions. Amendments are possible if confidence in rain /
snow showers increases. Also the timing of the cold frontal passage
may be off by +/- 1 hour, and thus the timing of the strongest gusts
may also be off by +/- 1 hour.

There may be some peak gusts a few kt higher than what is currently
in the TAF, potentially up to around 35 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow during the
late afternoon/night, especially for southern and eastern terminals.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of
the NYC metros, otherwise VFR prevails in the afternoon.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas 5+ ft return to the ocean waters as westerly flow gradually
increases to near 20 kt. Gusts over 25 kt expected on all waters
early this afternoon, then NW gales expected on the ocean and
the eastern Sound/bays of Long Island late today into this
evening following a cold frontal passage, with winds gusting to
30 kt on the Harbor/wrn Sound/south shore bays. Seas should peak
at 5-8 ft on the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet, 4-7 on the ocean
W of there, and 5 ft on the Long Island side of the central/ern
Sound.

Blowout tides may be possible on the western Sound with the low
tide early this evening, with water levels approaching 2 ft
below MLLW. A low water advisory may eventually be issued.

SCA cond on the ocean and the ern Sound/bays late tonight
quickly ramp down, with quiet cond through the weekend.
The next chance for SCA conditions occurs late Sunday night
into Monday as a cold front moves across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport
and Stamford CT tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as
low pressure passes well south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Low temps Fri morning may reach daily record lows at KJFK/KBDR,
and may also get close at KLGA. High temps Fri may also be
close to daily record low maxes at KLGA/KJFK.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935
KBDR: 17/1989
KNYC: 11/1926
KLGA: 21/1942
KJFK: 20/1966
KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002
KBDR: 28/2002
KNYC: 22/1886
KLGA: 32/2002
KJFK: 33/2007
KISP: 30/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight
     for ANZ331-332-340-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338-
     345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...