210
FXUS61 KOKX 230633
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
133 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure sinks southeast of the region overnight, and then
gets absorbed into an offshore bombing low pressure tracking
into the Gulf of Maine on Saturday. This intense low slowly
lifts northeast through the Canadian Maritimes through the
weekend. High pressure builds in for the beginning of next week,
followed by a frontal system for the middle of the week. Low
pressure may develop near the area by next Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The main axis with of showers resides across SW CT, eastern
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and south across western
LI. Anything else is real spotty. There could be a few flakes
north and west of the NYC metro. Any additional QPF should be a
tenth or less. No snow accumulation. Temps generally above
freezing as boundary layer has warmed in spots with little or
no precip falling through the column. Temps should hold nearly
steady overnight.

Late tonight, the stacked/occluding low will move southeast of
the area, with precipitation gradually ending from NW to SE.
The one area to watch is band of rain across eastern New England
that will likely pivot around the upper low and drop south
across eastern CT and LI. As it does so, it will likely
dissipate in a drying NW flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Vigorous shortwave pivoting around the stacking upper low and
over the Gulf Stream tonight will deepen a new closed upper low
over the Gulf of Maine, which slides into the Canadian
Maritimes, Saturday into Sunday. This will result in bombing
low pressure over the Gulf of Maine on Saturday, absorbing low
pressure sliding se of the local area, and drifting ne into the
Canadian maritimes Sat Night into Sun.

Cyclonic flow will keep cloud cover and scattered shower
activity across E LI/SE CT on Saturday, with partial clearing
across western portions of the area. Primary sensible weather
threat will be breezy conditions with sustained W/NW winds of
25 to 30 mph and gusts 35 to 45 mph. Isolated peak gusts to 50
mph possible Sat aft. With most foliage off trees, wind impacts
should be limited, with isolated tree damage and power outages
possible. Most susceptible may be higher elevations of Orange
County and western Passaic where snow load remains. Temps
slightly below seasonable for Saturday into the mid to upper 40s
interior, and lower 50s city/coast.

Pressure gradient remains tight Sat Night, with winds only
gradually subsiding to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph
overnight. Temps near seasonable with mixed low-levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active pattern is suggested by the modeling thru next week.
For Sun, a deeply mixed airmass with strong subsidence should
produce windy conditions. The NBM may be a little to light on
the cloud cover based on the GFS time heights, but with the
strong subsidence did not adjust the numbers yet. Went with NBM
temps due to the expected mixing, but if the clouds hang in
mixing doesn`t look to be deep enough to yield NBM numbers.
Winds gusts around 35 mph expected attm with h85 winds 35-40kt.
The gradient relaxes and winds decrease Sun ngt with temps close
to the NBM.

Increasing clouds ahead of a warm front on Mon. No rain however
per the model consensus until Mon ngt when chances increase,
then continued chances on Tue ahead of the trailing cold front.
The best dynamics currently progged N of the cwa, so significant
rainfall is not fcst attm.

Fair and cooler on Wed behind the front. Dry wx is progged with
some wly wind gusts around 25 mph at times.

Temps in the 20s and 30s Thanksgiving mrng per the NBM which seemed
reasonable based on some increasing clouds ahead of another
potential sys.

The models keep the storm track S of the cwa Thanksgiving and
Fri, with chances of low pres development thru the period. This
would bring chances for rain at the coasts and rain or snow
interior. With a cold airmass to tap into, any low deep enough
to bring winds to the N could allow for some snow to the coasts.
Otherwise, progressive lows will keep the ely component in
place likely resulting in a bl too warm for snow there. There is
a high amount of uncertainty with this portion of the fcst 7-8
days out, but did go a little blw the NBM for high temps based
on the fairly high model consensus pops.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure areas in the vicinity strengthen tonight into Saturday.
One low moves to the southeast of the region tonight, while another
low moves towards the Canadian Maritimes.

Light rain lingering into the overnight. Outside of perhaps a
few rain showers east of NYC terminals Saturday, mainly dry
conditions are expected otherwise.

Category forecast mainly MVFR to IFR tonight and then mostly MVFR to
VFR Saturday. By 18Z Saturday, only expecting terminals east of NYC
to have MVFR with otherwise VFR conditions. Winds will be variable
direction at or less than 5 kts this evening, before an increasing
northerly wind develops overnight near 10 kts. The winds become NW
to WNW Saturday and increase to near 15-20 kt with gusts near 30-35
kt. A few peak gusts to near 40 kt are possible Saturday afternoon.
Winds begin to decrease again Saturday evening, closer to 25-30 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to refine timing of wind gust changes.

Amendments likely to refine timing of categorical changes.

Some fluctuation between categories could occur overnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late Saturday night: VFR. WNW winds near 15 kt with gusts 20-30kt.

Sunday: VFR. WNW winds 15-20 kt with G25-30kt, diminishing at
night.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Increasing chances of rain Monday night,
eventually becoming likely for most terminals. MVFR or lower
possible Monday night.

Tuesday: Showers/MVFR likely in the day especially east of the
NYC metros, otherwise VFR. SW-W winds G20kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA winds on all waters briefly falling below SCA criteria tonight
as low pressure moves through, before ramping up to SCA once
again Saturday morning as offshore low rapidly deepens.

Gale conditions expected to develop on the ocean later Saturday
morning and continue into Sun Am, with marginal gale conditions
likely for all nearshore waters during this time.

Winds will be close to gale through Sun, then winds decrease on
Mon with seas falling blw sca lvls on the ocean during the day.
A frontal sys could bring sca cond to the waters Tue and Wed,
especially the ocean. Low chc of sca cond on Thu, with the probs
highest on the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional QPF less than a tenth of an inch overnight. No
hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from 6 AM EST this morning through Sunday morning
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
AVIATION...JM/BR