138
FXUS61 KOKX 081757
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1257 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure gives way to an approaching low pressure
system tonight, which impacts the region on Sunday through
Monday. A fast moving frontal system then exits early Tuesday.
Another fast moving frontal system moves through the region
Wednesday, followed by a weak trough Thursday. High pressure
builds in for the beginning of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure keeps the region dry through the period. Only a
low chance that some rainfall sneaks in well NW of the city toward
daybreak ahead of the next storm system to impact the area. At the
least, expect an increase of cloud cover. Light winds with
temperatures above normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday, shortwave energy rotating about a polar vortex near
James Bay in eastern Canada will interact with energy in the
southern branch of the polar jet, carving out a longwave trough
over the eastern half of the country. This will send a surge of
much colder air southward behind developing low pressure over
the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic states. As the primary low
lifts W of the Appalachians on Sunday, a warm front will
approach from the south, with secondary cyclogenesis taking
place off the NJ coast late in the afternoon, followed by a
cold frontal passage late Sunday night.

Rain chances increase through the day on Sunday. Looks like most
spots get through the morning rain-free, but rain eventually begins
primarily in the afternoon generally south to north, driven by
forcing associated with secondary low center to our south. NBM looks
too slow ramping up PoPs, so timing is based more on CAMs and global
model qpf fields. Still can`t rule out an isolated rumble of thunder
in the vicinity of eastern LI with stronger forcing via a nearby low
level jet interacting with a little elevated instability. The
secondary low then shifts north through the area with mid levels
drying and with weaker lift for roughly the first half of the night.
Areas of light rain or drizzle anticipated during this time. The
trailing cold front then shifts west to east across the area during
the second half of the night. Its forward motion will be slow as the
longwave trough axis associated with the storm becomes neutrally
tilted. And even after the cold front exits east Monday morning,
there will still be plenty of lift through the day with mid level
shortwaves rotating through and perhaps upper divergence with a
strengthening jet streak approaching. Models even suggest yet
another wave of low pressure developing along the front and shifting
northward through the eastern zones. Showers therefore still likely
across eastern LI and SE CT Monday morning, and even into part of
the afternoon for some spots. A chance of showers otherwise for the
rest of the forecast area, mainly in the morning.

Above normal temperatures for Sunday and Sunday night, then cold
advection knocks highs on Monday to a little below normal. Lows
Monday night dropping into the mid 20s well inland to the mid 30s in
the city. Freeze warnings will probably be needed for spots where
the growing season has not yet ended.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key points:

* Well below normal temperatures continue Tuesday with highs in the
  40s.

* Temperatures moderate for Tuesday night through the upcoming
  weekend, however, temperatures remain slightly below seasonal
  normals.

* Fast moving frontal systems move through early Tuesday, another
  Wednesday, and a weak trough Thursday. Any precipitation with the
  systems will be light.

* Brisk westerly flow likely Tuesday through Thursday, and leaned
  toward the 90th percentile for gusts. Winds remain below advisory
  criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front passes through this afternoon. High pressure passes to
the north tonight. A wave of low pressure along a warm front
approaches from the south on Sunday, with a slow moving frontal
system moving through Sunday Night.

VFR through tonight, with low probability of MVFR/IFR cigs
developing late tonight into Sunday AM, ahead of approaching warm
front. Increasing probability for widespread MVFR conditions
returning Sunday afternoon with approach of warm front and shower
activity. IFR conditions possible Sun eve/night in drizzle and
showers.

WNW-NW winds 10 to 15 kt, with occasional gusts to 20 kt for the
remainder of the day. WNW-NW winds diminish in the evening as the
direction gradually shifts to the NE at night, eventually ESE late
tonight into Sunday morning. E-SE winds 10-15G20KT developing Sunday
AM and continuing into the evening. Winds potentially becoming light
and variable for a period Sun eve, before becoming W/NW late Sun
Night/Mon Am.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

WNW Gusts up to 20 kt possible through 19Z. Winds generally just
right of 310 mag into early eve, becoming light and veering to the
NE this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday Night: E/SE winds early, bcmg light and variable, and then
shifting W late. MVFR conditions expected with IFR possible, in
drizzle and showers.

Monday: Chance of rain and MVFR early, improving to VFR. NW-W winds
G15-20kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet for the
rest of the day into this evening. Might be able to cancel SCAs at
some point this evening as offshore winds will be under 10 kt and
seas continue to drop. This is before winds shift onshore and begin
to ramp up late tonight into Sunday morning. Marginal SCA conds on
the ocean (both winds and seas) Sunday afternoon, possibly lingering
into early evening. Being that this is marginal and there will be an
extended period of sub-advisory conditions tonight into tomorrow,
will hold off on extending the SCA on the eastern ocean waters and
allow the night shift to see new guidance an issue a new SCA as
needed. Otherwise, advisory conditions are not expected to be met
across non-ocean waters through Sunday night.

Lighter winds expected for Sunday night with the flow shifting
offshore, then winds pick up once again as the pressure gradient
tightens behind a cold front on Monday. Advisory conditions look
probable on the ocean by midday as well as across some of the non-
ocean waters by the end of the day. Solid advisory conditions are
then expected on all waters Monday night.

And extended period of hazardous marine conditions are likely
Tuesday through Thursday night with at least SCA conditions across
all the forecast waters. Gale force gusts will be possible on the
ocean waters Tuesday through Thursday, with gale gusts possible on
the non ocean waters Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Lingering high astronomical tides following a recent full moon and
modest SE winds ahead of an approaching frontal system will likely
provide just enough of a surge (3/4 to 1 ft) to produce brief minor
coastal flooding for the most vulnerable coastal areas of southern
Nassau county and coastal SW CT during the Sun AM/early PM high
tides.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV