560
FXUS61 KOKX 080038
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
838 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front push east of the area this evening. Weak high
pressure then briefly follows for Sunday, followed by an area of
low pressure passing to the south and east Sunday night into
Monday. A slow moving frontal system will work across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday and
remains near the region through Friday. Another frontal system
may affect the region late Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Shortwave aloft and cold front pushes east through 10pm. An
additional 1/2", locally 1 to 1 1/2+" across Suffolk County
through 10pm before cold front passes through and pushes heavy
downpours and embedded thunderstorms offshore. Minor urban and
poor drainage flood threat with this activity, otherwise no
widespread hydrologic issues through Monday night.

Otherwise, drier airmass advects into the region overnight on
northerly winds in wake of cold front. This should help dense
fog along oceanfront and far SE portions of the CWA to scour out
late this evening, but with winds lightening overnight, could
have some patchy fog development overnight where heavy rain
occurred.

Less muggy conditions tonight, with lower tds and temps dropping
into the upper 50s across interior and LI pine barrens, and
lower 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Sunday, but then
weakens with the approach of a broad area of low pressure
approaching from the south and west. It should remain dry for most
of the day with rain chances increasing late in the afternoon over
the western parts of the forecast area.

Conditions should be dry for most of the day on Monday, then chances
increase Monday night as a cold front moves closer to the area.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s with nighttime
lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Great Lakes closed low drifts into southern Ontario on Tuesday and
then shears NE through southern Quebec Tuesday Night into Wednesday
ahead of next northern stream shortwave/closed moving east through
southern Canada. Good model agreement in an associated trough axis
approaching Tuesday/Tue eve and pivoting through late Tue night/Wed.

At the surface, a surface trough/cold front associated with the
Great Lakes low, and southern surface wave tracking NE along the
front will approach and cross the area on Tuesday. Large scale
synoptic lift from approaching trough, NE shearing southern stream
shortwave, and modest RRJ ULJ lift of a +1-1 1/2 std PWATs airmass
will be sufficient for increasing shower activity from SW to NE Tues
Am. Overall, basin average model QPF is light, but potential for
locally heavy downpours and elevated thunder, particularly N&W of
NYC with best coincidence of mid/upper forcing, weak elevated
instability, orographic enhancement of E/SE low-level flow, and
storm motion aligning with the slow moving frontal boundary. WPC Day
4 marginal risk of excessive rainfall dropping into northern
portions of the LoHud seems reasonable to start. Overall, best upper
level forcing and instability seems to lag the surface features,
minimizing a localized flash flood threat farther SE towards the
coast. Strong to severe threat appears limited despite strong shear
profiles, due to weak instability. Shower/thunderstorm activity
should taper from W to E later Tue aft/early eve as the surface
wave, trough axis/cold front slides through.

Thereafter, warming temp for Wed thru Fri, possibly Sat as region
lies on southern edge of westerlies, with heights gradually rising
under the influence of SE US ridging and high pressure sliding in
from the West. Temps likely several degrees above seasonable Wed
(upper 70s/lower 80s), and as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal
for Thu/Fri away from south coasts (mid to upper 80s), lower 80s for
the south coast. Have blended in a slight bit of the NBM 50th with
the NBM deterministic, since the NBM deterministic lies below the
10th percentile of the NBM ensemble. Low probability (less than 30%)
of exceeding 95F heat index across NYC/NJ metro an points N&W for
Thu-Sat.

Next feature of note will be a combo of a northern stream shortwave
approaching from Hudson Bay Friday Night into Saturday, and
potential southern plains closed low partially shearing NE towards
the area. This will bring potential for a a weak cold front/pre-
frontal trough to approach as early as late Friday, and subsequent
cold front to approach/linger through Sat Night before pushing
through. Inherently low predictability on these convectively
enhanced shortwave interactions this far out, but low chance pops
are warranted to address this threat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will continue to track across southern and eastern most
terminals this evening. The front stalls offshore and to the south
late tonight and into Sunday.

A slow transition continues from sub VFR to VFR for the remainder of
this evening, with sub VFR hanging in longer across eastern most
terminals like KISP and KGON for much of tonight with low stratus
and fog. Low confidence remains in fcst for tonight and into Sunday
with regard to whether low stratus and fog completely gets out of
eastern most terminals. Also pockets of MVFR and IFR likely for KHPN
and KSWF for a portion of tonight with patchy fog.

Another low confidence fcst Sunday with low clouds residing nearby
along and just off the coast and over the ocean, but most areas
still expected to stay VFR for the first half of the day. Sub VFR
conditions (mainly MVFR) is then expected to return at some point
Sunday afternoon, with timing uncertain.

Winds tonight will be NE and light, generally less than or around 5
kt, before becoming more E on Sunday at 8 to 13 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible throughout the entire TAF period for changing flight
categories, especially during Sunday afternoon and early
Sunday evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon: Mainly VFR to start, with MVFR likely to return.
Chance for rain Sun night with MVFR or lower.

Monday: Becoming VFR with light E flow.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with shwrs and tstms. Varying winds
with a frontal sys.

Wednesday - Thursday: VFR with W flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog continues across the central and eastern ocean
waters, southern and eastern bays of LI, and E LI Sound this
evening, with gradual improvement from NW to SE through 10pm to
midnight as cold front pushes offshore and drier airmass advects
over the waters.

Marginal SCA ocean seas are expected to fall below SCA tonight
into Sunday morning, but potential for a period of SCA ocean seas
to develop Sunday Night into Monday on easterly winds.
Conditions should gradually fall below SCA Monday.

Potential for 5 ft seas Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly in S
swells as a result of a slow moving frontal system. Marginal
nearshore SCA gusts possible during the day Wed in offshore flow
behind cold front. Seas should then fall below SCA conditions late
Wednesday as high pressure builds towards the water, continuing thru
Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An additional 1/2", locally 1 to 1 1/2+" across Suffolk County
through 10pm before cold front passes through and pushes
heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms offshore. Minor
urban and poor drainage flood threat with this activity,
otherwise no widespread hydrologic issues through Monday night.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms Tuesday may produce a basin wide
1/4 to 1/2" of rain. Localized 1+" amounts possible, particularly
N&W of NYC, presenting a low and localized threat of flash flooding
on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A High Rip Current Risk continues through Sunday evening for
all locations along the oceanfront.

SE swells remain at 3-4 ft on Sunday, mixed with a long period
SE background swell and a building 2 to 3 ft E wind wave. This
should maintain a moderate to high risk of rips with a west to
east sweep of 3 to 4 ft, occasionally 5 ft breaking surf. An E
to W longshore current will likely become favored in the
afternoon.

A moderate to possibly high rip risk likely on Monday with 3-4
ft ESE wind waves building, and a background of 1-2 ft SE/S
swells. E to W longshore current would be favored.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...20/NV
HYDROLOGY...20/NV
TIDES/COASTAL
FLOODING...NV