716
FXUS61 KOKX 181109
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
709 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control Friday through early next
week. The high will move offshore Wednesday as a cold front
moves across the area into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast remains on track.

An anomalously strong upper-level ridge reaches its peak today into
tonight over the northeastern with high pressure continuing at the
surface.

Dry weather and sunny skies will continue with highs in
mid/upper-60s. Lows tonight will be in the low-50s to mid-30s with
most seeing 40s under clear skies. The warmest temperatures tonight
will be in the NYC metro and the coolest temperatures will be in
prime radiational cooling spots including the LI Pine Barrens and
far northern interior parts of the CWA. Frost may return again in
these areas with light winds in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level ridge slowly weakens on Saturday giving way to a weak
shortwave pattern on Sunday before more ridging moves in Sunday
night. Dry conditions are expected with this shortwave as it will
only be a subtle feature merely causing the ridge to flatten. Plus,
high heights remain aloft with the jet stream remaining in far
northern Canada.

Temperatures continue to warm this weekend with a weak onshore flow.
Highs on Saturday in the upper-60s/low-70s. Highs on Sunday in the
low/mid-70s. Saturday night lows drop into the mid-50s near the NYC
metro, 40s for most, and in the mid/upper-30s for the LI Pine
Barrens and far northern interior locations. Frost may pop up again
in these areas. Sunday night lows will be similar, except the lowest
lows will be limited to the low-40s. This is due to slightly
stronger winds mitigating the effects of radiational cooling as a
tighter pressure gradient develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected Monday through the
middle of the week as an anomalously strong upper ridge remains over
the eastern United States. The ridge will move offshore Wednesday,
which will allow surface high pressure to also move east of the
area. A progressive shortwave trough then approaches on Wednesday,
which is progged to move across the area late Wednesday into
Thursday. This will send a cold front across the region allowing
temperatures to return to near seasonable levels by the end the
week.

Precipitation chances with the aforementioned trough and cold front
remain limited as there appears to be very little moisture return
ahead of the system. Followed NBM deterministic PoPs which yield
just slight chance on Thursday as this is when the upper trough axis
may be closest to the region.

Highs Monday and Tuesday will be well into the 70s for much of the
area and it is not out of the question to approach 80 across urban
NE NJ, especially Monday. Highs should remain in the 70s on
Wednesday, but not quite as high as Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures Thursday fall back into the 60s and potentially upper
50s to around 60 to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.

N to NNE winds 10-15 kt into the afternoon. There may be an
occasional gust 17-20 kt near the coast, but are more likely to
be frequent at KGON. Winds diminish this evening, becoming
light and variable overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts 15-20 kt possible at KJFK and KLGA late morning into
the early afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions remain likely for the ocean waters through
Saturday night with a SCA currently issued through the day
Saturday for 5-7 ft waves. Winds continue to weaken and remain
below SCA thresholds. Sub-SCA conditions expected for Sunday as
waves drop below 5 feet.

Conditions will remain below SCA levels early next week with high
pressure over the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Recent dry conditions will lead to an elevated spread of
wildfires today with minimum RH values of 25-30 percent. Winds
may also gust close to 20 mph at times. Per collaboration with
NJ, CT fire weather partners, BOX and PHI have issued an SPS for
our NE NJ counties as well as Fairfield County.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A combination of high astronomical tide due to a recent full moon on
Thursday and swell from low pressure south of our area will result
in elevated water levels into Saturday.

Widespread minor coastal flooding is likely for the south shore back
bays, NY Harbor, and Western Sound coastal locations with high tide
this morning/early afternoon. Localized minor coastal flooding is
expected across coastal locations along SE Suffolk County, NW
Suffolk County and coastal New Haven County. Elsewhere, water levels
should fall short of minor benchmarks. Generally followed a blend of
NYHOPS (Steven`s Institute) 50th percentile, STOFS, and ETSS.
However, ETSS is running a bit high in a few of the more vulnerable
locations so have sided closer to the NYHOPS/ETSS here. Freeport may
just touch moderate, but is not expected to exceed at this time.

Coastal flooding with high tide Saturday morning/early afternoon
looks isolated and brief as swells subside. Additional statements
may be needed for the south shore back bays, lower NY Harbor, and
Western Long Island Sound.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT
     this afternoon for CTZ009.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ069-070.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NYZ071-073-176-177.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ072-
     074-075-178-179.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ004-103.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/DS
FIRE WEATHER...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS