019
FXUS61 KOKX 060700
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
200 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough extending north from low pressure moving off
the southern Mid Atlantic coast will impact the area into this
morning. Weak high pressure will then move into the area tonight
into Sunday. A strong cold front moves through Sunday night. High
pressure builds from the west Monday, remaining in control through
Tuesday. A couple of low pressure systems may impact the area the
mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key points:

* Wintry mix across much of the area through this morning, with
  potential for patchy freezing rain/drizzle.

An inverted trough is currently stretching into our area from
low pressure passing well offshore. There has been enough
convergence for some scattered precipitation to develop.
Continue to be a tricky pytpe forecast. Moisture is very shallow
and combined with temperatures in this layer only a few degrees
below freezing ice nucleation could be difficult. This brings
freezing rain/drizzle into the question. So far it has not been
observed. Plain rain/drizzle is being seen across much of Long
Island where surface temps have been running a bit warmer than
forecast. Elsewhere, mainly light snow/flurries have been
observed. Since there still is the potential for freezing
precipitation have kept the SPS.

This activity shifts east this morning and will be east of the
area this afternoon. As temperatures rise this morning any
freezing rain/drizzle threat will come to an end. Weak high
pressure starts to build in later in the day.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key points:

* A cold front moves through Sunday night with another very cold
  airmass building in behind it. Highs Monday look to top out in
  the mid 20s to low 30s, with lows Monday night expected to be
  down in the single digits and teens.

Weak high pressure remains in control through Sunday and then a
cold front moves through Sunday night. Guidance came in drier
and now keeps PoPs out of the area for the frontal passage. As
high pressure builds in behind the front the pressure gradient
briefly tightens into Monday morning and results in 25 to 30
mph gusts. These winds combined with temperatures well below
normal will result in wind chill values during the day in the
teens.

The high moves overhead Monday night. Have stuck with the NBM
for now with lows, but if forecast sky cover trends lower there
is a chance we can see even lower temperatures. Current forecast
is upper single digits to lower teens across the interior and
mostly mid to upper teens elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure pushes off the Northeast Coast Tuesday, allowing
a warm front to approach from the southwest and low pressure to
move across the Great Lakes and pass north of the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Therefore, dry conditions are in
store from Monday through Tuesday, with just a slight chance of
precipitation for portions of the forecast area Tuesday night.
The warm front may lift north during the day Wednesday as
another fast moving low pressure system approaches from the
west, farther south than the previous one. This too is expected
to pass north, rounding the base of the upper trough that is in
place Wednesday night. This may give the region a better chance
for precipitation Wednesday into Thursday, but it looks to be
light. The associated cold front looks to push through Wednesday
night, allowing high pressure to build in for Thursday. Another
quick moving system approaches from the west late in the week,
but there is a great deal of uncertainty among the models as to
the track and strength of the low.

Warmer, but still well below normal temperatures expected for
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 20s to around 40 across the area
(warmer for coastal areas). Near normal temperatures on Wednesday
with the warm frontal passage, but then slightly cooler for Thursday
with the cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak surface trough shifts across the terminals this morning,
followed by weak high pressure building to the southwest this
afternoon through tonight.

Mainly MVFR ceilings expected this morning. There is a chance
for IFR, but not enough confidence to include in TAF. There is
also chance of light snow or flurries. However, there remains
uncertainty on precipitation type due to shallow nature of the
moisture. This leads to the chance for some freezing drizzle or
light freezing rain. A light glaze of ice is possible if any freezing
drizzle were to occur. Surface temperatures may also start
rising towards day break, which could introduce some light rain
or drizzle. Any precip should shift east of the NYC metro
terminals after 12z, and then ending around late morning for
KGON. Improving conditions to VFR expected by afternoon,
taking longest at KGON.

Light NE or variable winds 5 kt or less this morning. The flow
becomes WSW-W this afternoon, then W-WNW this evening, under 10
kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty remains with exact precipitation type
through 12z in the PROB30. There is still a chance that precip
remains spotty with little to no impact to the terminals.

Some fluctuations in ceilings are possible early this morning.

Timing of improvement to VFR may be off by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR and light rain/snow
mix at night.

Monday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday: Chance of rain with a chance of rain/snow interior
Lower Hudson Valley. S-SW gusts 20-25kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through the weekend with a weak pressure
gradient over the waters.

SCA conditions are possible through much of next week beginning
Monday as multiple low pressure systems could impact the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds late morning/midday
high tide cycle in spots along the back bays of Nassau and
Queens, tidal waterways of NE NJ, the SW CT coastline, and at
Shinnecock and Montauk out east. A coastal flood statement may
eventually be issued to address this.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...