825
FXUS61 KOKX 151730
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1230 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure nearby shifts offshore today, as a warm front
approaches from the south and west. The front lifts through the
region into this evening, with an attendant cold front moving
through tonight. The departing system exits into the Canadian
Maritime on Sunday, with high pressure building back in from the
west through mid next week. A frontal system may then impact
the region Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridging briefly builds in today with surface high pressure in place.
Northern branch shortwave dives south from Ontario, breaking down
the ridging and carving out a trough over the Northeast into the
latter half of the weekend.

Conditions remain dry through the day with the ridging, though
cloud cover thickens and lowers late as a warm front approaches
from the southwest. Flow turns SW or S this afternoon as the
surface high drifts off the Jersey shore, and WAA then continues
as the warm front moves through and temperatures rise into the
50s through the evening. Rain overspreads generally from west to
east after sunset, with showers developing into the NYC metro
by early evening. Can`t entirely rule out a few embedded rumbles
of thunder with the activity, 00Z HREF indicates max elevated
instability (MUCAPE) of a hundred joules or two. Attendant cold
front with the system sweeps east after midnight, and likely
brings a quick moving band of showers along and just ahead of
it. Conditions then dry out overnight into Sunday AM.

The system is rather progressive, and duration and rates should
keep QPF relatively low, a few tenths for NYC, NE NJ, and the
lower Hudson Valley, and up to a half inch or so across LI and
SE CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of the exiting frontal system, increasing flow and
CAA as the low deepens into the Canadian Maritimes and high
pressure builds in from the west.

WNW winds increase Sunday morning, gusting 30 to 35 mph across
the region through the day. Likely see a few gusts top 40 mph
with the well mixed BL, though appears to fall shy of Wind
Advisory at this time. The flow weakens just slightly by Monday,
but remaining gusty nonetheless, 25 to 30 mph during the
afternoon. Blended in NBM90th for much of this period`s wind
gusts.

High temperatures on Sunday likely occur overnight into the
early morning, before remaining steady or falling a few degrees
through the day with the cold gusty wind. Monday will be
the colder day, into the mid 40s for most, but with the winds
should feel like the 30s much of the day.

Can`t rule out a few streamers making it into the local area
from the northwest with cyclonic flow off the Lakes on Sunday,
but confidence in coverage and occurrence too low at this point
to include in forecast. Impacts minimal regardless outside any
brief heavier shower. Otherwise, predominantly dry weather
expected through early week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key points:

* The winds diminish Tuesday with light to calm winds into mid week.

* Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, moderating to normal
  Thursday, and slightly above normal Friday.

* Likely dry through at least Thursday afternoon with rain chances
  increasing for Thursday night and Friday. Too early to have any
  confidence regarding impacts.

Relatively high confidence forecast through Thursday. Uncertainty
increases Thursday night into Friday surrounding the track and
timing of low pressure that would appear to pass to our north at
some point late in the week. Did not stray from NBM during this
period. NBM is reasonably close to AI GEFS and AI EPS regarding
track and timing as implied by NBM wind fields. With that said, it
appears that the global deterministic models may have just started
converging on a solution with a slower timing of the system and its
potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure exits to the east this evening. A warm front lifts
north of the terminals tonight followed by cold front passage
Sunday morning.

VFR through 00z. Rain develops after 00z from west to east with
ceilings lowering to MVFR, especially east of the NYC metro
terminals. The rain will continue through the early morning
hours before tapering off 08-11z. Brief IFR ceilings are
possible across Long Island and southern Connecticut terminals,
and potentially in the Lower Hudson Valley. Any lower conditions
will quickly improve to VFR 08-11z with VFR prevailing the
remainder of the TAF period.

Winds will continue to shift to the SW early this afternoon and
then SSW-S mid to late afternoon. Speeds will remain at or under
10 kt. SW winds start increasing this evening with gusts around
20 kt possible. LLWS of 45-50 kt at 2 kft out of the SW is
expected from NYC terminals on east from around 04-08z.

Winds will shift to the W Sunday morning behind the cold front,
becoming 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt after 15z Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shift to the SW-S this afternoon may be off by
1-2 hours.

Amendments expected for flight categories tonight, mainly due to
timing of any MVFR ceilings.

Peak gusts 35-40 kt possible late Sunday morning and afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon: VFR. W winds 20-25 kt G30-35 kt.

Sunday Night-Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20 kt G25-30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20 kt possible in the morning.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and ocean seas increase this evening with a frontal
system moving through the region. The system exits on Sunday,
with strong winds expected to develop behind it and gale
conditions could persist through much of Monday on some waters.

Small Craft Advisory goes into effect on local ocean waters at
23Z this evening, and 3Z tonight on all other waters, as wind
gusts toward 25 kt develop and ocean seas build over 5 ft.

Gale Watch remains in effect on all waters Sunday with gusty
westerly flow expected to develop behind the frontal system. The
watch was extended through the day Monday, with highest
confidence on the ocean at this time.

Winds and seas begin to improve late Monday as high pressure
builds in, and sub SCA conditions are expected to return to all
waters by Tuesday, then remaining so through midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR
HYDROLOGY...DR