515
FXUS61 KOKX 261440
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1040 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds down over the area today, and then
southeast tonight. A weak frontal system then approaches late
tonight, moving through on Sunday. High pressure returns to the
area for Monday into Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the
west on Tuesday afternoon and moves offshore Tuesday evening. A
second cold front follows late Wednesday into early Thursday
with high pressure returning to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Region remains on the NE periphery of strong southern ridging
today, with high pressure building down from the north.

As a result, a drier airmass continues to work into the region
on occasionally gusty NE flow this morning bringing dewpoints
some 10-15 degrees lower than this time 24 hours ago.

This gusty ne flow has also allowed a pool of wildfire smoke,
likely trapped under a near boundary layer subsidence inversion
across the St Lawrence River Valley and central and eastern New
England to rotate and mix down into the area this morning. This
will continue into the afternoon while gradually diluting.
Visibility will likely be reduced to 4 to 6 mile in haze
through at least the early afternoon with a faint smell of
smoke as a result. EPA monitored PM AQI levels of 100 to 150
(unhealthy for sensitive groups to all groups) being observed
across central and eastern New England this AM, which could
potentially work down into portions of the area through the
afternoon. NYS has issued an air quality alert for much of SE NY
as a result for today.

Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the day with
seasonable temps and much more comfortable humidity levels, with
highs in the mid 80s for most, and the upper 80s for the urban
corridor. Given the lower dewpoints, heat indices today will be
near the actual temperature.

High clouds will be on the increase this afternoon into this
evening in advance of the next frontal system to impact the area
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak upper ridging becomes more of a zonal flow aloft as a shortwave
approaches from the west. Aforementioned surface high pressure is
slow to move east Sunday morning as a trough/warm front and
associated low pressure system approach from the west. Precip
chances thus increase on Sunday morning from west to east as the
front slides near the area. Instability per BUFKIT soundings looks
weak in the AM, so any thunder looks isolated initially. Mid and low
level dry air also looks to remain entrenched for at least part of
Sunday AM, so precip may have some difficulty initially. Model
soundings do show an appreciable increase in PWAT, with over 2" by
Sunday afternoon along with a modest increase in instability (MUCAPE
500-1000J) and shear (0-6km shear values ~30kts) with the
approaching shortwave. SPC maintains a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms for the area on Sunday.

With cloud cover around, highs will be mainly in the low 80s, with a
more humid feel as dewpoints rebound into the low 70s by Sunday
evening under the southerly flow.

An increase in heat and humidity on Monday as weak ridging builds
back in behind the departing shortwave. Dry weather is expected.
However, h850 temperatures approach 20-21C Monday afternoon with
dewpoint in the mid 70s (per NBM). Thus, heat indices of 100-105 for
northeast NJ and 95-100 elsewhere look possible once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The NBM was followed with no changes.

Key Points:

* High heat and humidity will continue on Tuesday, potentially
  lingering into Wednesday. The peak of the heat currently looks to
  occur on Tuesday with max heat index values 100 to around 105F.
  Wednesdays heat index values remain below 100.

* A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
  evening with a weak cold front. The threat for showers and
  thunderstorms continues Wednesday, potentially lingering into
  Thursday as a stronger cold front moves into the area.

* Temperatures trend down to end the week with potential of below
  normal temperatures. Humidity levels also should be much lower
  than the first half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure briefly builds into the region today. A warm front
approaches the area from the west late tonight into Sunday
morning.

VFR to MVFR with visibilities reduced in haze this morning into
much of the afternoon.

Winds NE to E around 10 kt will veer through much of the day
becoming southeast by afternoon. Tonight, winds become light at
most terminals from the south. A few showers will be possible
after 06z, with an isolated thunderstorm also possible. MVFR
cigs will be possible late in the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of winds veering today may vary by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: MVFR conditions possible, especially in any showers or
thunderstorms.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday - Wednesday: Mainly VFR with possible MVFR or lower in
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A brief period of 20 kt gusts are possible in wake of a frontal
passage Saturday night into Sunday morning. Otherwise, sub SCA
conditions are likely through Monday. A relatively weak pressure
gradient Tuesday through the end of the week will lead to
conditions staying below SCA levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal system could
produce locally heavy downpours on Sunday that result in nuisance
flooding. WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, but
the overall widespread flood threat appears low at this time.

There are currently no hydrologic concerns next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk continues today with a mixture of
lingering 1 to 2 ft S wind swell and a developing 3 ft wind
wave.

Based on RCMOS and NWPS guidance, the moderate rip risk
continues on Sunday, with lingering 1 to 2 ft S wind swell and
a developing 3 ft wind wave.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR/NV
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...BC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...