574
FXUS61 KOKX 160159
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
859 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across this evening, followed by a cold
front early Sunday morning. The associated low will deepen and
track from Maine into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday, then
slowly weaken and move north on Monday. High pressure will
gradually build from the southwest on Tuesday before weak low
pressure passes to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday.
High pressure will briefly return on Thursday before a frontal
system potentially impacts the area for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Numerous showers and tstms have developed as expected in
response to an approaching left front quad of an upper level jet
streak, mid level positive vorticity advection, low level
thermal/moisture advection ahead of a warm front, and 100-250
J/kg elevated instability. Most of the activity is now east of
the Hudson River, spreading across Long Island and S CT this
evening. Main shower activity concludes overnight, but
precipitation not totally out of the picture for the rest of the
night until the sfc cold front moves through late.

With the abundance of clouds/precip and boundary layer winds
staying up, a relatively mild night is expected. Forecast low
temps are mainly in the 40s to near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level vort max moves across the region Sunday into Sunday
night. Mid level negative height tendency expected Sunday into
early Monday. Then, mid level heights slowly rise with a return
to quasi-zonal flow.

At the surface, low pressure strengthens as it moves from Maine
into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday into Sunday night. The low
in Southeast Canada moves north and slowly weakens Monday into
Monday night. A tight pressure gradient will be established
across the area Sunday and will remain tight through Monday
before relaxing Monday night.

There will be strong cold air advection Sunday through Monday
before beginning to weaken Monday night.

Models indicating enough vertical forcing with the cyclonic
flow aloft and low level omega to allow for isolated shower
activity across parts of the region Sunday into Sunday evening.
This forcing plus several mesoscale models indicating increased
reflectivity within discrete areas traversing the local region
add confidence in this potential. Probabilities for
precipitation were manually adjusted higher than NBM and enough
to make for isolated shower wording for different parts of the
region. Most of the showers are expected to be rain although
some interior locations closer to 40 degrees temperature late
Sunday into Sunday evening could have some snowflakes mixing in
due to wet bulb cooling.

An overall mitigating factor to the precipitation will be the
drier air and this could very well lead to precipitation
dissipating before reaching the ground.

Overall, expect brisk conditions and near normal temperatures
along with some parts of the area getting a quick shower for
Sunday. Then, mainly dry conditions but still brisk and colder
than normal Sunday night through Monday night. Winds will begin
to more substantially decrease Monday night as the pressure
gradient relaxes and becomes less tight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key points:

* Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, moderating to normal
  Thursday, and increasingly above normal heading into Saturday.

* Mainly dry through at least Thursday afternoon with rain chances
  increasing for Thursday night and Friday. Too early to have any
  confidence regarding impacts.

Global models are in decent agreement through the upcoming week and
only minor deviations were made from National Blend of Models (NBM).
Both a negative AO and NAO (shorter term climate signals) has lead
to a blocking pattern across the North Atlantic and an upper vortex
over eastern Canada. This has resulted in cooler than normal
temperatures the past week and multiple deep lows tracking up into
eastern Canada followed by gusty W/NW winds. Long term models are
showing a break in the pattern later in the week as temperatures go
from below normal at the start of the period, to above normal by the
end of the week.

It will be a mainly dry week as weak low pressure passes to the
south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Forecast area looks to be on the
northern periphery of some light precipitation. If the precipitation
shield were to get far enough north into inland zones, there is a
chance of some wet snow mixing in. Impacts are unlikely at this
time. There is the potential for a wetter, warmer system for the end
of the week as the vortex over eastern Canada lifts out. Rain
chances increase Friday into Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front will lift through this evening, followed by a cold
front late tonight.

Showers/tstms ahead of the warm front about to clear the NYC
metro area as of 02Z, and should impact mainly
KHPN/KBDR/KISP/KGON before midnight. IFR vsby possible in any
tstms, and IFR cigs are also possible at KGON for a time after
midnight.

As sfc winds veer more out of the SW-WSW later tonight, a
period of LLWS with WSW flow 40-45 kt at FL020 likely before
cold fropa late tonight.

W-WNW winds then increase daytime Sunday to 20-25 kt with gusts
up to 35 kt by 15Z-16Z. A few gusts closer to 40 kt may be
possible at the NYC metro terminals in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts close to 40 kt possible in the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night and Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20kt G25-30kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20 kt possible in the morning.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusts in SW flow have reached 25 kt on the ocean waters and
should overspread the rest of the coastal waters tonight.

For daytime Sunday, after the cold front passage, tightening
pressure gradient will allow for higher winds to mix down to
the surface. Gale force winds expected to develop on all waters
and continue through Sunday night, then likely remain on the
ocean waters on Mon. Gusts on the non ocean waters should be
mostly near 30 kt, with an occasional gust up to 35 kt.

A small craft advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters
and the Long Island south shore bays until 6 AM Sunday. For the
rest of the forecast waters, the small craft advisory starts at
10 PM this evening and continues until 6 AM Sunday.

From 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM Monday, a gale warning is in effect
for all waters. For 6 AM to 6 PM Monday, just the ocean zones
are in a gale warning.

Winds lower Monday night down to SCA levels for eventually all
waters. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to return to all
waters Tuesday, then remaining through Thursday with high
pressure largely in control.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rain amounts generally under a half inch with showers through
tonight. No hydrologic issues expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JM/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW