793
FXUS61 KOKX 130330
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak fronts/surface troughs will move across the area
through Thursday as the region remains between low pressure to the
north and high pressure to the south. High pressure builds over the
area Friday into Saturday before moving offshore Saturday night. A
frontal system approaches Saturday night and moves through the region
Sunday. High pressure builds to the west Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper trough continues to translate over the Northeast US with
mid-level energy sliding SE toward the area through tonight. This
will result in a weak front or trough moving through the Northeast
tonight and into early Thursday. The primary sensible weather
change will be a wind shift from the WSW to NW.

Winds will be from the west overnight with occasional gusts of
20 to 25 mph, mainly at the coast. Skies will remain fairly
mixed with cloud cover being more overcast to broken earlier in
the evening and eventually expecting to become a bit more scattered
after midnight and toward Thursday morning. Lows tonight will
be in the middle 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The surface trough/front features will pass by early Thursday as
winds more prominently shift to the NW. Gusts will remain 20-30 mph
through the day. Temperatures will continue to remain below average
with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Skies will likely be partly
cloudy although they could briefly go mostly cloudy at times as there
are still pieces of energy moving through aloft around the upper trough.

The large upper trough that has been over the Northeast in recent
days will begin to slide off the New England coast Thursday night
into Friday. The system will then meander just off the northeast
coast and the Canadian Maritimes through Friday night as ridging
builds towards the area. This will allow the surface high to move
closer to the region. It will remain breezy on Friday, but gusts
should be much weaker compared to earlier in the week. Highs will
should again range from the middle 40s to lower 50s. The coldest
night to end the week looks to be Friday night as winds drop off
along with mostly clear skies. Lows based on the NBM range from
the middle to upper 20s inland to lower 30s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NBM closely followed through the long term. Most notable change was
to lower winds from Sunday afternoon through part of Monday.

Key points:

* Dry conditions on Saturday as high pressure builds over the region.

* A frontal system approaches Saturday night and moves across the
  region Sunday into Sunday night. The system brings the next period
  of rain, mainly Saturday night into Sunday morning. No impacts
  anticipated. Breezy as well for Sunday through Monday, but winds
  probably remaining below advisory thresholds.

* Temperatures will be a few degrees below seasonal normals
  during the period except for Sunday where temperatures may
  briefly rebound into the upper 50s to low 60s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will pass to the north tonight and then off the
Northern New England coast on Thursday. High pressure will
remain to the southwest of the area. This will keep the area
under a tight pressure gradient.

VFR.

Gusts have returned to the area tonight following the passage
of a surface trough. There was uncertainty if mixing would be
sufficient enough as now appears to be the case. It is still
possible as the night goes on that gusts may become less
frequent. Expect W winds around 10 kt with G20-25kt, but mainly
at the coastal terminals. Winds will then become WNW-NW on
Thursday, increasing to around 15kt with G25-30kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may become less frequent late in the night.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night: VFR. Gradually diminishing WNW winds.

Friday: VFR. WNW-NW winds 10-15G15-25kt.

Saturday: VFR, sub VFR developing at night in RA.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain, improvement to VFR in the
afternoon. W winds 10-15 G20-25kt late morning/afternoon.

Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue through at least Thursday. There may
be a brief weakening of winds on the non-ocean waters tonight,
but decided to just extend the SCA through Thursday as winds will
be close tonight and will quickly increase Thursday afternoon. SCA
conditions may continue into Friday, especially on the ocean. Ocean
seas gradually subside through Friday, but will remain above 5 ft
through much of Thursday night.

A period of sub-SCA conditions are expected on Saturday. SCA conditions
then return late Saturday into Sunday with the next frontal system.
Gales will even be possible on the ocean waters Sunday afternoon
behind the passage of a cold front, with this threat continuing
into Monday with a tight pressure gradient. Will include this potential
in the HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW