862
FXUS61 KOKX 060301
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1101 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches the area Friday before passing
through on Saturday. Weak high pressure then briefly follows
for Sunday followed by a series of weak lows passing to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. A slow moving frontal
system will then work across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
An isolated shower and/or thunderstorm is still possible north
and west of NYC the next few hours, but anything that does
develop will be weak and short-lived. Otherwise, it will be
warn night with lows in the middle to upper 60s for most and in
the low 70s for the NYC metro. This is close to 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large-scale ridging over the area shifts offshore tomorrow with
subtle lowering heights aloft as mid-level troughing pushes into the
Great Lakes region. Downstream of the surface cold front, several
pre-frontal troughs are expected to be the focus for convection for
the next couple of days. Generally, mostly to partly sunny skies
Friday is expected to allow ample surface heating and the
development of instability on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg or higher
for interior portions of the area. Despite the ample instability,
there will be fairly little shear (20kt or less) with fairly slow
mid-level flow.

Additionally, a strong seabreeze is expected to develop under the
light synoptic flow and should be able to move deep into the
northern portions of the CWA. While this may partially be a trigger
for storms to develop, south of the seabreeze, the cooler air off of
the ocean will stabilize the lower atmosphere, preventing convection
from being able to sustain itself. As such, a good portion of the
CAMs have the strongest and most numerous convection north of the
CWA, though the LHV and CT remain in the marginal risk for severe
storms, which remains possible but mainly for any storms prior
to the seabreeze passage. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s once
again, though any spots reaching 90 should be limited if any.

Residual convection may move into northern and western portions of
the CWA during the evening but once surface heating shuts off,
convection should be on a rapidly weakening trend.

The cold front approaches the area Friday night from the west that
will result in a cloudier sky for Saturday. Models differ a bit as
to how much residual convection will be around by Saturday morning,
but either way, cloud cover should limit the amount of surface
heating taking place on Saturday. This should limit any stronger to
severe convection to more of showers with embedded convection.

Given the general slower storm motion with possible repeated rounds
of convection, WPC has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. This
may result in local hydrologic concerns, though widespread issues
are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Stayed close to the  NBM with global models in good overall
agreement with the large scale mass fields. However, there are
some timing and placement issues as can be expected at this
juncture in time. At the start of the period, shortwave ridging
will pass through the area on Sunday with weak surface high
pressure. There is some uncertainty with the location of a
weak surface low passing to the south Sunday night into Monday
morning. The 12Z GFS is far enough to the south to keep the area
dry, while the ECMWF is far enough north to bring a high
probability of rainfall into the region. For the time, NBM has
a 20-30 percent chance of showers and/or rain during this time,
but no higher than a 10 percent chance of rainfall amounts greater
than 0.50". For the rest of Monday through the first half Tuesday
rain chances will be low, but then increase as a frontal system
works into the area. The best chance at this time looks to be
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability is marginal at this time
with strengthening deep-layer shear as an upper trough approaches
from the Great Lakes. The latter of which will drive a cold
front through the area toward daybreak Wednesday with drier air
to follow for midweek.

Much of the period will feature weak onshore flow, intervals of
clouds, and rain chances. This will keep daytime highs mainly
in the 70s Sunday into Tuesday with lows warming into the lower
60s during this time. Humidity will be on the rise as well.
Temperatures will warm Wednesday into Thursday with a westerly
surface wind component and building heights aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore, while a cold front slowly approaches
tonight into Friday.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance for MVFR/IFR at
KGON and potentially KISP late tonight/early Friday morning. There
is also a chance for showers and thunderstorms and MVFR Friday
afternoon and evening, mainly from the NYC metro on NW.

SW winds under 10 kt overnight with most terminals becoming light
and/or variable. Winds Friday morning may also be a bit variable,
but should settle to the SW-S by midday and remain there through the
afternoon. Speeds will be around 10 kt for most sites, but could be
a few kt higher at times near the coast.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some wind direction variability is expected Friday morning before
15z.

Amendments possible for timing of shower/thunderstorm potential
Friday evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: Pockets of MVFR/IFR possible. Chance of a shower or
thunderstorm, mainly NW of the NYC metro.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR and showers possible. Slight chance of a
thunderstorm.

Sunday: VFR daytime. Chance of MVFR and showers at night.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves are expected to remain generally below SCA levels on
all waters through at least late Friday night. Waves approach 5 feet
on the ocean early Saturday morning.

Thereafter, expect sub-advisory conditions through the middle
of next week. Waves of low pressure passing to the south and
a southerly swell will keep seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft. Chances
increase for marginal SCA conditions for seas around 5 ft Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through Saturday,
although thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain Friday
and possibly Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night may produce at
least minor nuisance flooding. Low confidence at this time regarding
potential impacts this far ahead in time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The is low rip current risk for Friday, but a building southerly
swell of 3-4 ft 8s, will result in a moderate risk for Saturday
with 3-4 ft waves in the surf zone.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...