606
FXUS61 KOKX 102046
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
346 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong cold front moves across late tonight into Thursday morning.
The low associated with this front moves well north of the region
and deepens, eventually tracking into the Canadian Maritimes
Thursday into Thursday night. Weak high pressure follows for Friday
into Friday night. A couple of clipper lows over the mid-West
Saturday and Saturday night will send another shot of arctic air
across the region Saturday night into Sunday. Strong high
pressure will then build in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Points

* Precipitation less than 0.25 inch liquid equivalent. Up to
  near 1 inch snow possible Western Passaic NJ, Orange NY,
  Putnam NY, northern tip of Fairfield CT, rain elsewhere.

* Black ice formation possibility for early Thursday morning, highly
  dependent on winds. If winds less than 10 mph, this potential
  increases. Otherwise, not expecting much with higher winds helping
  to dry out surfaces.

* Wind gust increases into this evening. At times, a few peak gusts
  to 40 mph. Occasional gust up to 45 mph possible.

Mid level vort max moves through this evening. Upper level jet
streak left front quad moves in late this afternoon and then pushes
northeast away from the region tonight. The strong cold front
approaches the area heading into this evening. Highest POPs this
afternoon for interior locations, north and west of NYC. Highest
POPs for rest of region this evening. POPs trend down late this
evening into overnight as forcing for lift decreases across the
area.

Precipitation type a mixture of rain and snow interior north and
west of NYC. Up to near an inch for total snow. Forecast has
also trended lower in overall liquid equivalent.

Forecast lows around 20 to 30 degrees and these temperatures are
forecast to occur overnight into early Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points

* Windy Thursday into Thursday night with strong cold air advection.
  Peak wind gusts to 40 to 45 mph. Occasional gust up to 50 mph
  possible.

* Winds trend down late Thursday night into Friday.

* Much colder than normal temperatures. Max temperatures forecast
  mainly in the 30s Thursday and Friday.

* Mainly dry but some possible snow showers Thursday and Friday
  night into early Saturday morning.

Overall pattern jet stream south of the region. Mean trough across
the Northeast but not a sharp trough, extending from North Central
US to Mid-Atlantic. Mid level cutoff low moving into Northern New
England Thursday, then moves into Canadian Maritimes Thursday night
into Friday. Quasi-zonal mid flow across the area for Friday
night.

At the surface, a strengthening low moves through Canadian Maritimes
Thursday into Thursday night. Weak high pressure builds into the
local region Friday into Friday night.

Mid level PVA with strong cold air advection could bring in a few
snow showers Thursday into Thursday night across the region. The
NAM model guidance indicating more steep lapse rates and some
elevated CAPE, with some possibility for snow squalls. However,
this is just one model but did increase above NBM POPs after
taking much of the CAMs into account.

Pressure gradient will be getting more tight between low pressure
well northeast of the region and high pressure well to the southwest
of the region. A gusty NW flow will be in place during the day and
at night. Temperatures much colder than normal Thursday through
Friday night.

Wind gusts up to near 35 to 40 mph expected with some peak gusts up
to 45 mph. This is just under advisory thresholds. NAM Bufkit
soundings and HREF showing possibility of some higher wind gusts, up
to near 50 mph mixing down to surface. The GFS Bufkit is much less
however and the forecast wind gusts already are several kts higher
than the NBM 90th percentile so not enough confidence to go with
wind advisory at this time. GFS LAMP guidance for some locations
also showing gusts closer to 30 kts as opposed to 35 kt for mid
to late afternoon Thursday.

Another low probability for snow showers late Friday night into
early Saturday morning with a weakening low but much of the
forecast guidance has trended drier for this, showing more high
pressure presence.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* A clipper low may bring in light snow or flurries for Saturday
  morning. The trend is toward a drier forecast.

* Another clipper low and associated Arctic cold front and upper
  level disturbance will bring a better chance for light snow
  Saturday night into Sunday morning.

* A shot of Arctic air will follow for later Sunday into Tuesday,
  with temps up to 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Weakening low pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys
Friday approaches the area, while another weak low Friday night
passes over the northern Great Lakes. While the first low generally
dissipates with its approach it may induce a weak low off the East
Coast Saturday morning along with some weak vorticity in the upper
levels, giving eastern areas just a slight chance for snow.

The second low passes well north of the area into Saturday night and
Sunday morning, weakening as it does so. At the same time, another
fast moving vorticity max rounds the base of the upper level trough
over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and moves toward the
forecast area. Additionally, and arctic front moves through on
Sunday. Miller B type cyclogenesis is also likely along the front on
Sunday well SE of New England after it passes through, likely too
late to have impact. This gives the region a better chance for snow
for the entire area. Though it is too far out to discuss any
accumulations, any potential snow accumulations are expected to be
light at this time.

After the passage of the cold front, colder conditions move in later
Sunday through Tue, and it could also become blustery Sunday night
into Mon due to the tight pressure gradient between the intensifying
low as it heads toward Atlantic Canada and high pressure building to
the west. The high should build over the area on Tue and remain in
control through the middle of next week, keeping the area dry
through then.

Temps will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Mon, with lows in
the teens and lower 20s, and highs from the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Wind chills early Mon morning could drop to the single digits
throughout. Only slight moderation in high temps (lower to middle
30s) expected for Tue, with less wind chill impact as winds lighten.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the west today and eventually
passes through tonight.

VFR conditions will continue to lower to MVFR into this evening.
IFR is possible at KSWF, KGON, and KHPN. SNRA anticipated for
KSWF. Precip ends tonight (2-5Z) with improvement back to VFR
shortly after the precip ends. VFR remains for the rest of the
TAF period. While not widespread enough to include in the TAFs,
a brief stray snow shower is possible Thursday.

Increasing SW winds into the afternoon. There may be a lull in
winds as the front approaches the area this evening where gusts
become more occasional or shut off completely for a brief
period. Winds veer to the W tonight, then to the WNW late
tonight/early Thursday behind the front. WNW flow all Thursday
with gusts 30-35kt. An occasional gust to 40 kt is possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional this evening.

Timing of category changes may be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: VFR. W/WNW gusts 30-35kt. Isolated gust to
40 kt possible.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Isolated MVFR possible in any rain or snow
showers at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts
15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in any snow. NW flow with gusts 20-25kt.

Monday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marine hazards for SCA for NY Harbor and gale warnings on all
other forecast waters through today. For tonight, SCA continues
on NY Harbor and the gales likely drop to SCA thresholds for all
but the ocean waters. The ocean gale warning goes until 1AM
Thursday and then afterwards, the ocean goes to SCA level wind
gusts. For non-ocean waters, SCA wind gusts are expected through
pretty much all of tonight.

For Thursday into Thursday night, another round of gales is
likely for all waters. These gales are likely Thursday evening
for all waters and then will be more over the ocean for
overnight Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Wind gusts at SCA levels then are forecast to follow for Friday
before dropping below SCA thresholds Friday night. The eastern
ocean will probably have some lingering SCA conditions (both
wind gusts and seas) Friday evening before dropping below SCA
thresholds. Otherwise, below SCA conditions forecast for other
waters Friday night.

After an upper level disturbance passes by, SCA conditions should
return to the ocean waters Sat afternoon, with gusts 25-30 kt and
ocean seas 3-5 ft, and continue into Saturday night, diminishing
late Saturday night

After an Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday, then as low pressure
develops/intensifies along the front SE of New England, winds should
veer NW, and gale force wind gusts will be possible. Seas should
build to 5-9 ft on the ocean, and around 5 ft on the central/eastern
sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Still less than a quarter of an inch of liquid equivalent
through tonight. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP