389
FXUS61 KOKX 030531
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1231 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low pressure system continues to track northeast of
the region overnight, and into the Canadian Maritimes by
Wednesday. High pressure then returns for Wednesday and
Thursday, with a cold frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Low
pressure will then pass to the south and east Friday night into
Saturday, with weak high pressure returning Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by another cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Back edge of light precip continues to push east and should be
east of the region by 08Z Wednesday. Precip type is all rain.
Temperatures fall below freezing across the area late evening
into the overnight, except maybe some sections of the city, so
some refreezing of standing water will be possible, mainly
across the interior. Winds will increase overnight too as the
pressure gradient tightens over the area. NW winds 15-25 gusting
up to 35 mph anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Dry conditions for the period.

* High temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s, which is
  about 10 degrees below normal.

For Wednesday, high pressure over the OH Valley moves slowly east,
with the local area caught between it and the departing coastal
system. The pressure gradient looks to relax by midday Wed, so any
lingering gusts should subside. Thursday looks similar as the high
remains to our southwest and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. It looks to pass through the area Thursday afternoon dry
and with little fanfare, other than some increased cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures expected, running as much as 10-15
  degrees below normal Friday and again Sunday night/Monday.

* Low pressure passing to the south may give a glancing blow late
  Friday night into Saturday.

Very cold on Friday as a 1030 mb high (supported via strong mid
level confluence behind the departing upper trough over eastern
Canada) slides across, with highs from the upper 20s well
inland to mid 30s metro/coastal sections. The high will retreat
Fri night, with a srn stream low passing to the south in
progressive quasi- zonal flow aloft. Polar jet may be modeled
too strongly and ridging off the SE coast too weakly, so despite
suppressed 00Z GFS solution think the sys will at least give a
glancing blow late Fri night into early Sat afternoon, with 30
PoP for all but the lower Hudson Valley. Thermal profiles
supportive of light snow late Fri night/early Sat morning, then
a transition to a light rain/snow mix for interior SE CT and all
rain across ern Long Island and coastal SE CT for late
morning/early afternoon.

Cold frontal passage Sunday night as a closed low swings across
ern Canada will usher in yet another very cold air mass for
early next week, with lows in the teens/20s and highs in the
upper 20s/lower 30s for Monday. This shot of cold air looks to
be longer lasting than the one for Thu night/Fri of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure continues to track northeast of the area overnight.
High pressure will then build to the southwest of the area late in
the overnight through Wednesday. The high weakens Wednesday night as
a cold front approaches from the northwest.

VFR except MVFR remains at KGON until around 09Z.

N winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt continue until around 08Z.
Gusts may be more occasional. Winds will then be NW to WNW around 10
kt or less into Wednesday afternoon. Winds then back to W less than
10 kt, with winds becoming light and variable toward 00Z Thursday
outside of the NYC metro terminals.


  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Overnight gusts may end an hour earlier than forecast, also, gusts
may be more occasional.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of
the NYC metros.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on all waters through Wed AM in
association with the coastal low pressure system. Gusts to 30 kt
are likely, occasionally to 35 kt, with seas 5-6 ft on the ocean
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas diminish through Wednesday with seas falling
below advisory thresholds by the end of the day. Winds and
seas then begin to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning ahead of a cold front that passes through in the
afternoon and brings marginal gales on the ocean waters. SCA
conds otherwise likely on all waters late Wed night into
Thursday morning and lasting into Thursday night.

Any lingering 5-ft seas on the outer coastal ocean waters out
east early Fri morning should subside quickly as strong high
pressure builds from the west. No hazards anticipated thereafter
through Sunday afternoon due to a weak pressure gradient and
lack of appreciable swell, with seas no higher than 2-3 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE