105
FXUS61 KOKX 040757
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front this morning followed by brief high pressure into
early tonight. Thereafter, a triple-point low brings a warm
front on Saturday followed by a cold front early on Sunday,
which stalls to our south Sunday afternoon/evening. Weak waves
of low pressure track along the stalled frontal boundary Sunday
night and Monday. Another cold front pushes through the area
Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure returns for Wednesday
before pushing offshore by late Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is just starting to move into the northern fringes
of our CWA based on surface dewpoints and winds and will push
through early to mid morning, keeping most rain this morning to
the south, but good chances still exist for southern coastlines
until mid/late morning. MRMS shows a steady stream of showers
approaching the area from the west, which will likely scrape us
to the south. There are some thunderstorms in PA and NJ, but
instability is far weaker in our area, so no thunderstorms are
expected.

Late this morning, northwesterly flow should finally lead to drier
air, reducing rain chances through the rest of the day. Most of the
rain will take place further south in central/southern New Jersey
where moisture is better available. For us, only expecting rainfall
through this morning to total a few hundredths north and nearing
(possibly) a quarter inch for extreme southern areas of the CWA.

An upper-level ridge builds in this afternoon and into the night.
Cloud cover will decrease this morning, remaining partly cloudy this
afternoon and into tonight.

There`s good agreement among the available guidance on highs today
reaching the mid-60s. Tonight will be cooler than previously under
some cold air advection with lows in the mid/low-40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Saturday, an upper-level ridge remains in place, then begins to
weaken and exit east under lowering heights Saturday night into
Sunday in response to a long-wave trough that moves east to our
north in Canada.

A triple point surface low will approach us from the west early on
Saturday then move nearby to our north late Saturday/early Sunday,
exiting northeast into Sunday. This triple point low will bring a
warm front on Saturday followed by a cold front overnight Saturday
or early on Sunday. The warm front brings the next best chance for
rain Saturday afternoon/evening with a bit of a lull late Saturday
night until rain chances pick up again early on Sunday with the
passage of the cold front. Spotty rain chances may linger somewhat
through Sunday as the front stalls to our south with pockets of
energy passing aloft before the next system approaches to the
southwest Sunday evening/night.

Cool air will still be in place before the warm front arrives on
Saturday, leading to highs in the low-50s to upper-40s. Then due to
the warm front and rainfall, temperatures will remain mostly steady
Saturday night, with lows staying in the 40s. Uncertainty remains
for high temperatures on Sunday. The 03Z NBM 25th has highs for KNYC
at 57 while the 03Z NBM 75th has highs up to 77. This is a 20 degree
spread for high temperatures on Sunday, and it mainly has to do with
the timing of the cold front. Having gone with the slightly earlier
timing for the front, temperatures should be more limited on Sunday.
Forecast highs to be in the low-60s to upper-50s. This is subject to
change, however, depending on how guidance trends with regards to
the timing of the cold front, which will eventually stall to the
south Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A longwave trough builds toward the region Sunday night through
Tuesday, and moves offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the
surface a cold front pushes through the region Sunday and stalls
somewhere in the vicinity, with most guidance indicating the front
stale just south of the area. With waves of low pressure tracking
along the frontal boundary unsettled weather is likely Sunday night
into Monday. With the uncertainties with the setup of the front,
have leaned toward the NBM deterministic guidance. Although for
Monday went a little toward the 75th percentile for highs, if the
front setup up a little further to the north. A rather strong
shortwave rotates into the upper trough Monday night into Tuesday,
and this brings another cold front across the region Tuesday.
However there is little moisture with this front. With this front
bringing a cold airmass into the entire region, temperatures Tuesday
and Tuesday night will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Tuesday
night, freezing temperatures are expected across the region, except
for metro New York City, where temperatures will be just above
freezing. And with the growing season having begun in the NYC metro
area, frost and/or freeze headlines are possible for Tuesday night.
Temperatures remain below normal through Wednesday night, and return
to near normal Thursday as surface high pressure builds off the
coast. Also, gusty northwest winds in the wake of the front will
produce wind chills from around 15 to 25 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move across overnight with high pressure building
from the north for Friday. The high weakens Friday night as a warm
front approaches to the west late.

VFR. There is a chance of showers overnight in association with a
cold front moving through toward 08Z. Little impact to flight
categories as the showers move through the terminals.

SW/W wind shift to the NW 5-10 kt with cold fropa overnight. NW
winds increase to around 10 kt Friday morning. Occasional gusts to
around 15 kt are possible by early Friday afternoon, and left out of
the TAFs.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. A chance of showers toward Saturday morning.

Saturday: Showers likely. MVFR to IFR expected in the afternoon and
at night. SE winds G15-20kt.

Sunday: Chance of showers during the day, becoming likely at night.
MVFR to IFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Monday: Chance of showers, mainly early, with MVFR conditions, IFR
possible.

Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers. WNW winds G20-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories remain in place on ocean waters early this
morning for waves 5-7 feet, but waves are expected to drop below 5
feet west to east later this morning and into the early evening west-
to-east, with the SCAs expiring in response.

Waves remain below 5 feet until Sunday where they may climb
above 5 feet on ocean waters. Winds remain below SCA criteria,
but could come close on ocean waters, and possibly non-ocean
waters Saturday with a passing warm front and Sunday with a
passing cold front.

Sunday night ocean seas remain elevated near 5 feet, especially on
the eastern ocean waters, with a northwest flow, becoming northeast
Monday. Another cold front moving through Monday night into Tuesday
with bring gusty SCA level winds to the ocean waters by late Monday
night and through Tuesday, with ocean seas building to 5 to 6 feet.
Small craft conditions remain on the ocean waters into Tuesday
night, slowly diminishing overnight, and falling below advisory
levels late Tuesday night into early Wednesday as a high builds
towards the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET