250
FXUS61 KOKX 291901
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
201 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area moves off the New England coast
through tonight. A frontal system moves across the region Sunday
into Sunday night. High pressure briefly builds on Monday
before quickly giving way to developing low pressure over the
southern states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tonight will be dry as high pressure centered over the region
moves off the New England coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a
low pressure system will be moving out of the central plains
states and into the Great Lakes region, and is associated with
northern stream energy and a longwave trough. Temperatures will
drop off quickly early tonight as winds become light and
variable with mostly clear conditions. However, by the overnight
temperatures will likely hold nearly steady, or even rise a few
degrees especially along the coast, as warm advection develops
with a warm front approaching to the southwest, and clouds
increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm air advection increases into Sunday morning as the warm
front nears the southern portions of the region, and possibly
moves into the coastal region Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the
surface low will be moving into the eastern Great Lakes region
and into southern Canada. The upper trough will be rather flat
and progressive across the northeast. This will bring a cold
front quickly across the region late day Sunday into Sunday
evening. Precipitation develops by late Sunday morning, and will
be mainly rain, with a brief start of snow and snow mixed with
rain across far western portions of Orange County and Western
Passaic County as the warm air will not be reaching into the
interior as the low begins to occlude. Precipitation will be
generally light, but there may be a brief period of moderate
rainfall along the coast where the strongest lift will be
located.

Near zonal flow will continue across the eastern half of the
country Monday and will allow the next northern stream
amplifying trough to move out of the Pacific northwest and into
the central plains early Monday. Meanwhile, surface high builds
into the region late Sunday night into Monday morning, and with
the progressive flow, moves quickly offshore Monday night.

The deep upper trough will bring the surface low out of the
southeastern states late Monday night with a chance of
precipitation across the region toward Tuesday morning. Enough
low level warm air will be across the coastal regions for the
precipitation to the all rain, however in the overrunning
precipitation shield a rain/snow mix band will be possible, with
even some sleet at times, while the farther inland areas will
likely begin as all snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Low pressure may bring the first bout of winter weather to the
  area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in the
  low track, which will be critical in determining precipitation
  type. At this time, it looks like mainly rain at the coast with
  rain/snow line somewhere over the interior.

* Below normal temperatures through next Friday.

NBM closely followed during this timeframe.

The focus for this forecast period will remain on a potential
coastal low bringing wintry weather to the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Global models have trended farther NW with the low
track the last 24h, with many of the 12Z operationals just inside
the 40N...70W benchmark. The EPS/GEFS mean are farther SE, deeper,
and more clustered around the mean, but there are also more members
to the NW of the mean than recent days. While the Pac energy
associated with this southern branch storm system is about to come
onshore western Canada, there will likely be some run to run changes
that are often critical to precipitation type across the area. In
addition, with no blocking over the north Atlantic, high pressure
quickly lifts out of the Northeast as the storm approaches, allowing
for more of a marine influence and erosion of the cold air. This is
why it is too difficult this far out to mention snowfall totals.
What does appear to be more certain though is for a strong coastal
low to impact the region.

The forecast is more reflective of a consenus forecast. Such a track
favors a mainly rain event at the coast, with a rain/snow line
working inland. Inland locations have the best chance of seeing
winter weather impacts at this time. NBM probabilities for greater
than inch of snowfall range from 10-25 percent at the coast and 40-
70 percent inland. For an advisory level snow, these probabilities
are 0-10 percent and 20-40 percent, respectively.

High pressure will primarily in control for the second half of the
week, minus a cold frontal passage on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build across the area through this evening,
then offshore overnight. A frontal system will then approach
from the west on Sunday.

VFR through tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions in light rain
developing during the late morning and early afternoon hours
Sunday.

NW winds diminish this afternoon, likely become light and
variable for a time overnight before becoming SE/S toward
daybreak. S winds increase to 10-15kt with G20kt by late
morning/early afternoon Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gusts 15-20kt through about 20Z.

Winds for a time this evening may be light northerly.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon/Night: Rain with MVFR/IFR conditions in the
afternoon/early evening. S winds G20-25kt, highest near the coast.
Improving to VFR after 00Z. Winds becoming W G15-20kt.

Monday: VFR. NW G15-20kt, mainly in the morning.

Tuesday: MVFR expected in the morning, IFR possible in the
afternoon/evening. Precip type mainly snow at KSWF. Rain and/or snow
at the onset at the other terminals, changing to rain in the
morning. Winds become N in the afternoon with G15-25kt, highest at
the coastal terminals.

Wednesday: VFR. NW G15-20kt early.

Thursday: VFR. WSW G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure over the waters, and moves off the New
England coast tonight, winds and seas remain below advisory
levels across the forecast waters into early Sunday morning. A
increasing southerly flow ahead of the next rapidly approaching
frontal system Sunday will increase winds with ocean seas
building and SCA conditions will develop by late Sunday morning
on the ocean, south shore bays, and the far eastern Long Island
Sound. There is some uncertainty with the strength of the gusts
on the ocean waters with warm air moving over the colder waters.
A SCA will be in effect for the above mentioned waters late
Sunday morning, running through 100 AM EST Monday for the Sound
and southern bays, and at least through Sunday night on the
ocean. Small craft conditions may continue into Monday morning
before falling below by midday as high pressure builds back into
the region. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels
through Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ332-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT