914
FXUS61 KOKX 040418
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1218 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure remains in place through early Thursday.
Thereafter, multiple areas of low pressure approach and move
near the area going through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No significant changes with this update.

Dry conditions prevail. Winds expected to diminish with high
pressure offshore remaining dominant.

Mostly clear sky conditions are anticipated. While conditions
favor more ideal radiational cooling, despite this, low
temperatures trend a few degrees warmer compared to the previous
night, mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Dry conditions continue.

For Wednesday, models pretty good agreement on the 850mb
temperatures increasing several degrees compared to the previous
day. With a tightening of the pressure gradient between high
pressure offshore and low pressure to the west, SW winds
increase and become gusty in the afternoon. This will help warm
up temperature more away from the coast to mid to upper 80s
while coastline remains in the 70s.

Wednesday night, third night of onshore flow. Possible patchy fog
and/or low stratus late night into early Thursday morning out east
across Long Island and Southern CT. Forecast lows well into the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The synoptic ridge pattern gradually shifts to more of a trough
structure with rain eventually returning to the forecast late
week, for parts of the weekend as well as early next week.

A cold front approaches from the west Thursday through early
Friday. The front then returns back north thereafter and slows
down heading into the weekend. This will become part of another
low pressure system approaching from the southwest. This low`s
associated cold front moves near the area for the first half of
the weekend with additional low pressure development along it.

The low and cold front move east of the area Sunday into Sunday
but another low and associated frontal system move near the area
for early next week.

Thursday, again, slight increase in 850mb temperatures so
warming trend at the surface. However one mitigating factor will
be increasing clouds ahead of low pressure both from the west
and from the south. Still expect highs to get well into 80s
except along coast where highs will be near 80.

Dry conditions continue Thursday. Mainly dry conditions for
Thursday night.

For Long Island and Southeast CT, possible patchy fog and low
level stratus again for late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms more probable Friday through Friday night.
Closer to the coast, thunderstorms mostly slight chance with more
maritime influence.

Highest chances of showers Saturday through Saturday night.
Thunderstorms possible as well, but relatively higher chance away
from the coast.

Chances for showers decrease Sunday into Sunday night but increase
thereafter for early next week.

Think fog will be more prevalent late Friday night into
Saturday morning, have patchy fog for entire area.

For rest of temperatures, another quite warm day forecast Friday
with highs well into the 80s but relatively cooler trend
thereafter for weekend into early next week with daytime highs
more in the 70s. Flow becomes more northerly Sunday and then
more easterly early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore through Wednesday night.

VFR.

Light south to southwest winds remain overnight, and then
increase Wednesday, late morning into the afternoon. Gusts up to
20kt are expected during the afternoon, however, gusts may be
more occasional. Winds become light SW to light and variable
Wednesday night.

Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires remains over the western
terminals into Wednesday. However, low level visibility will not
be impacted.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts up to 20kt, Wednesday afternoon, may be more occasional.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late Wednesday night through Thursday: VFR. Possible brief
MVFR/IFR east of NYC terminals early Thursday morning in
fog/stratus. SW wind gusts 15-20kt Thursday afternoon into early
evening.

Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms.
Possible brief MVFR/IFR east of NYC terminals early Friday
morning in fog/stratus. SW wind gusts 15-20kt possible in the
afternoon to early evening.

Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of
tstms. Patchy fog early Saturday.

Sunday: Slight chance of a shower. MVFR possible. Otherwise
mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecast, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Conditions expected to remain below SCA thresholds on all
waters through Friday night. Gusts to 20 kt develop each day on
most waters mid to late week. Some occasional 25 kt gusts will
be possible.

Winds remain below SCA thresholds thereafter through the
upcoming weekend. However, with the continued SW fetch, seas
will build on the ocean with the forecast showing some 5 ft
ocean seas for this weekend. So, SCA will be possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Thursday. Thereafter, with an
increasingly humid and warm airmass in place, layer PW gradually
increase. PW values approach 1.5 inches Thursday night and
eventually reach near 1.75 inches Saturday. This will allow for
any thunderstorms to easily produce heavy downpours. This would
lead to potential minor flooding in low lying, urban, and poor
drainage areas with excessive runoff. There is a marginal flood
risk for Saturday through Saturday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
NYC, Nassau, and Southwestern Suffolk ocean beaches Wednesday,
and a moderate risk at the Southeastern Suffolk ocean beaches. A
moderate risk is forecast for Thursday at all the ocean
beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ005>011.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...