210
FXUS61 KOKX 081738
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1238 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through the area this afternoon into this
evening. High pressure builds in tonight and lingers through
early Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night. A frontal
system will impact the area Sunday night through Monday. High
pressure from the Great Lakes builds in Monday night through
Wednesday. The high moves northeast away from the region
Wednesday night. A complex frontal system then moves in for
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Northern stream shortwave approaches New England this afternoon,
and pivots through tonight. At the surface, a dry cold front
crosses the region this afternoon into evening.

Breezy and dry condition today, with an increasing pressure
gradient increasing westerly winds to 10-20 mph with gusts
upwards of 25-30 mph through this afternoon. These gusty winds
in addition to low RH values will allow for the increased risk
of fire danger. As such, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the
entire area through the day. High temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 60s today.

The cold front moves through by this evening, allowing for a
shift to a northwesterly flow with gusts of 20 to 30 mph
continuing much the overnight. Strong CAA will allow
temperatures to drop into the 30s for much of the area, with the
exception of the NYC metro, but due to low dew points and a
strong wind, frost formation is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure begins to slide overhead on Saturday which
will promote continued dry conditions but relaxing wind as the
pressure gradient lessens as the high moves overhead.Temperatures
will be much cooler, only in the low to middle 50s for Saturday.
Radiational cooling is expected to be fairly widespread for
Saturday night as winds become light overnight. Low temperatures
are expected to drop into the low 30s and upper 20s for much of
southern Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley as well as
portions of Suffolk County on Long Island. While there are no
headlines currently in effect, a Frost Advisory or Freeze
Warning may be needed for portions of the area that have not yet
ended their growing season (mainly immediate coastal zones).

High pressure continues to slide overhead into Sunday and
gradually shift offshore during the day. Return flow on the
backside of the high pressure will allow for temperatures to
rebound into the upper 50s and low 60s once again. A potent
frontal system will approach from the west late in the day on
Sunday with widespread light rainfall expected to overtake much
of the area from west to east around sunset. Rain showers
continue to move across the area Sunday night into Monday with a
quarter to a half inch of rain expected, the first decent
rainfall we`ve had in over a month. Ahead of and just behind the
cold frontal passage should be fairly gusty as the pressure
gradient tightens, with initially S winds 10-15 mph with gusts
to 25 mph shifting to W on Monday at similar speeds. Any
residual showers end Monday morning with skies becoming clearer
and conditions drier by Monday afternoon. Highs Monday will be
in the middle to upper 60s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast setting Monday night, zonal upper level jet
across Southern US, undulating northern upper level jet across
northern US. Mainly zonal flow across local region Monday night into
Tuesday.

Rossby wave moving from Eastern Pacific into Western US early into
midweek with strong associated jet streaks. Downstream ridge
amplifies across local region Tuesday night through midweek. Trough
moves into the local region Thursday into Thursday night.

Ridge moves offshore and trough moves in from the west Thursday into
Thursday night but the trough could potentially weaken, getting
deamplifies as it moves in. It is here, that forecast uncertainty
increases as the degree of amplification of the trough has wide
variations comparing different operational models.

At the surface, area will be behind a departing cold front Monday
night. High pressure then builds in from the Great Lakes thereafter
through midweek. High pressure slides farther northeast of the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. A complex frontal system moves
in from the west Thursday through Thursday night. There may be some
offshore cyclogenesis as indicated by some models by just like for
the features aloft, these surface features also have a lot of
associated uncertainty with large differences between operational
models in positions and magnitudes of MSLP and precipitation.

In terms of surface forecast conditions, dry conditions expected
Monday night through Wednesday and an increasing chance of rain
Wednesday night. The chance for rain remains Thursday and Thursday
night.

Regarding temperatures, relatively warmest day of the long term is
forecast to be Tuesday, when forecast high temperature reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the region. Forecast high
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday are closer to normal.
Forecast lows warmer than normal forecast Monday night and Wednesday
night, with Tuesday night and Thursday night lows closer to normal.
Followed the NBM for temperatures overall but did smooth out lows
near Westhampton NY for overnight lows as forecast conditions will
not promote efficient radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moves across the region this afternoon. High
pressure then builds in from the west through Saturday
afternoon, settling overhead by Saturday evening.

VFR with dry conditions through the TAF period.

Westerly winds around 15 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt become more
NW late afternoon into the evening as a cold front crosses the
terminals. Occasional gusts around 30 kt possible to around 02Z.
Late tonight winds then become northerly with both sustained and
gusts diminishing into Saturday morning. Timing of the wind
shifts and diminishing winds will be dependent on how quickly
high pressure builds into the region.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Start time of gusts could be delayed around an hour. Occasional
higher gusts are possible late this afternoon into the evening,
20Z to 02Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon: VFR. NW/N winds 10-15 kt, with gusts 15-20
kt, mainly early afternoon. Winds diminish to around 10 kt with
gusts ending by late afternoon.

Sunday: VFR into the afternoon, then becoming MVFR with a chance of
rain late. MVFR or lower in rain at night.

Monday: MVFR with rain ending during the morning, eventually
becoming VFR. W-SW winds 10 to 15 kt, gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts
ending after sunset.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds near 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts
mainly during the day into early evening.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA is in effect for all waters as an tightening pressure gradient
will result in increasing winds this afternoon into this evening.
All waters will see gusts 25-30kt this afternoon and through
tonight. A stray gust upwards of 35kt isn`t entirely ruled out,
especially for the eastern ocean, but is not expected to be
widespread or frequent enough for a Gale Warning at this time. Wave
heights will also be 5-6 feet on the ocean zones, and 3 to 5 ft
on central and eastern LI sound this aft into tonight. Sub-SCA
conditions return Saturday aft/eve as high pressure builds over
the waters.

A return to SCA conditions is likely for the ocean zones Sunday
night into Monday with the approach of a frontal system that
moves through the area. Sheltered waters may see gusts approach
25kt, but confidence in reaching SCA thresholds is higher on the
ocean at this time. There may be some lingering 5 ft ocean seas
Monday night but otherwise, conditions are forecast to remain
below SCA thresholds Monday night through Tuesday night across
the forecast waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably mild temps, westerly winds between 25-30 mph and
humidity values between 25% and 35% expected this afternoon
under mostly sunny skies. These conditions will lead to
increased risk for fire danger, with a Red Flag Warning in place
for the entire CWA.

Winds will reach their peak following the frontal passage
tonight before winding down towards daybreak on Saturday as the
pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure starts to move in.
The risk of rapid fire spread lowers tonight, despite persistent
winds, as relative humidity values rise to 50-70%.

For Saturday, mostly sunny, seasonably cool, and dry conditions
continue with frequent NW 20 to 25mph gusts likely till at least
midday for LoHud/NYC and into mid afternoon for LI. Winds and
gusts subside in the late afternoon into evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions have developed across the area per
US Drought Monitor. Streamflows are generally below the 25th
percentile of normal for this time of year. There are no
other hydrologic concerns through mid next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...NV/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/NV/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW