360
FXUS61 KOKX 232332
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritime slowly weakens and
meanders across the Canadian Maritimes through Monday.
Meanwhile, high pressure builds in slowly from the southwest,
and moves offshore Monday. A frontal system passes on Tuesday.
Low pressure will likely impact the area during the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The fcst is on track. Deep low pressure continues to slowly
weaken and meander across the Canadian Maritime tonight as high
pressure remains to the southwest of the region. Strong and
gusty northwest winds continue into tonight, gradually
diminishing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure continues to slowly weaken and meander across the
Canadian Maritime Sunday with gusty northwest winds continuing
through Sunday afternoon below gradually diminishing late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night as the low weakens and high
pressure to the southwest builds into the region. Dry weather
remains Monday as the high will be over the region, and moves
offshore Monday afternoon. Despite weak warm advection setting
up Sunday night, Sunday night`s low will be lower than Saturday
night`s as winds become lighter, and decouple with clearing
conditions. Warm advection continues Monday with a weak return
flow as high pressure begins to shift east, and a warm front
develops to the southwest and west of the region late in the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not much change in the overall pattern per the latest modeling.
First sys is Mon ngt and Tue. Mon ngt has trended mainly dry
attm with chances for rain with the warm front early Tue mrng.
The cold front then follows with more chances for rain. The NBM
pops are pretty high with categorical 12-18Z Tue. Mild temps on
Tue as the area briefly gets into the warm sector. Highs around
60 fcst for much of the area.

Colder air but not extreme advects in for Wed, so the temp fcst
is right around climo with dry wx and partly cloudy skies. A
wly breeze of 15-20 mph based on the modeled flow aloft.

Increasing clouds Wed ngt, then it looks like pcpn develops on
Thanksgiving. Mainly rain, although some of the interior nwrn
high spots could mix with snow. Current timing is for the pcpn
to hold off in the mrng and develop in the aftn, perhaps aft 16Z
or so. This is subject to change this far out.

The fcst becomes more challenging Thu ngt and Fri as low pres
takes shape nearby and impacts the area. The 12Z ECMWF has
developed a deep low and gone interior, which would bring in the
warm air and produce a rainy windy storm for the area. The GFS
remains consistent, keeping the sys S of the area and not
deepening significantly until E of Cape Cod. Trended the fcst
towards the GFS due to the consistency of the soln for now. A
lot can still change between now and next Fri however.

Colder on Sat behind the exiting sys. Used the NBM 50 percent
as opposed to the NBM for high temps due to better confidence in
the colder airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds in from the west through Sunday.

VFR. NW-WNW winds 10-20kt with frequent gusts 20-30kt and
occasional gusts to 35kt this evening. WNW winds weaken into the
first part of the overnight and probably increase a little
after midnight. For the terminals outside of the city, this
increase overnight might not be much, and may not be realized
until a few hours after sunrise Sunday. Gusty WNW winds continue
through the day on Sunday before gusts finally drop after
sunset.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Winds should prevail at or south/left of 310 magnetic, but may
occasionally be north/left of it.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday PM: VFR. WNW winds 15-20kt with occasional G25-30kt,
diminishing at night.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Showers/MVFR likely during the morning. VFR in the
afternoon with W gusts 20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR with rain - mainly after the morning push.
Chance of E-NE gusts 25-30kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Strong gusty northwest winds continues with deep low pressure
across the Canadian Maritime and low pressure to the southwest
of the forecast waters. Gusts will be gale force into Sunday
morning across the ocean waters. The gale warnings remain in
effect. Small craft conditions will be on the non ocean waters
into early Sunday evening, with occasional gusts near gale force
across eastern Long Island Sound Sunday afternoon. Small craft
conditions will be likely on the ocean waters, once gales end,
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Then Monday winds and seas
will be below advisory levels.

A frontal sys will bring sca cond to the waters Tue into Wed.
Chances for sca criteria increase on Thu and Fri as low pres
develops in the area. Gales possible on Fri, but uncertainty is too
high to include in the hwo attm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Sat.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET