673
FXUS61 KOKX 240531
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
131 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for 03z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chance of showers for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Isolated thunderstorm possible for Monday. Severe weather
impacts are not expected.

2) More chances of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and
Friday. Low confidence in potential impacts at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold pool aloft with longwave troughing will be over the region for
both Monday and Tuesday. Both afternoons could see instability
showers for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern
Connecticut, and with slightly more CAPE and perhaps slightly steeper
lapse rates, there could be an isolated rumble of thunder for
Monday. NBM kept all areas dry both days, but have gone with slight
chc PoPs for both afternoons. Severe wx not expected, but a strong
gust could be possible on Monday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Global models show a weak wave of low pressure approaching from our
SW on Thursday and passing nearby or through the forecast area
during Friday. Too early to have high confidence in potential
impacts, but will need to keep an eye on trends for severe wx and
flooding. At least isolated thunder would be around based on the
track of storm, and at least minor flooding would be possible with
an increase of PWATs. Time frame for greatest chance of impacts
would be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front drifts further offshore overnight. A trough of low
pressure lingers across the region Tuesday with high pressure
gradually building from the west.

VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period. There is a low
chance of a few isolated showers / thunderstorms this afternoon.
At this time confidence remains too low to include in the TAF.

Winds will be light overnight mainly out of the W/SW. W/SW winds
continue Monday afternoon and increase to or just above 10 kt
with gusts around 20 to 25 kt. An isolated gust up to 30 kt
can`t be ruled out. Some coastal terminals may not gust, or
gusts may not be as frequent.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An isolated gust up to 30 kt can`t be ruled out this afternoon.

Isolated showers are possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
remains too low to include in the TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. WSW around 10 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds.

Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain
below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast
period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for Monday followed by
a low risk of rip currents on Tuesday for the Atlantic facing
beaches. SE swell on both days is anticipated.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC