072
FXUS61 KOKX 060038
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
738 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will give way to low pressure that
impacts the area late tonight into Thursday. The low`s cold
front passes through the waters late Thursday night into early
Friday morning followed by high pressure building into the
region through Friday night. Another area of low pressure
impacts the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure
builds back in Sunday night and Monday. A series of low
pressure systems pass near the area Monday night through
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure was beginning to move slowly offshore and mid and
high cloudiness was increasing. Aloft, a fast, nearly zonal
flow was sending a disturbance from the Mid Mississippi Valley
and will move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight, as
seen on the water vapor loops. As it approaches Thursday
morning, a weak secondary low will take shape south of LI,
passing to the east in the afternoon. Warm advection
precipitation will break out across the area from SW to NE,
approximately 5 to 8 am. It will begin as snow everywhere for
about a 2 to 3 hour period, then transition over to rain. Far
interior locations, may not changeover to plain rain until early
afternoon, and by that time it will be mainly pockets of light
rain and/or drizzle. Models vary with how quickly the warm air
comes in aloft, with the 12Z NAM particularly aggressive, while
the GFS and HREF solutions hold on to the colder air a bit
longer. We are talking about a matter of 1-2 hours difference,
but with a fast system that can be significant. So a slightly
colder solution, and a 1 to 2 inch snowfall event may end up
closer 3 or 4 inches. However, taking a middle road approach,
somewhere between the colder and warmer solutions seems prudent
at this time. However, with a strong SW flow aloft, the warmer
NAM solution is not out of play. Thus, staying with a 1 to 2
inch snowfall with the higher end across CT, the Lower Hudson
Valley and NE NJ. Coastal locations as is typical with these SE
flow events often see the boundary layer warm to above freezing
before before that happens aloft. Thus, across LI and the NYC
metro, expect any freezing rain to be real brief. Ice accretion
amounts across the interior are expected to range from a few
hundredths of an inch to as much as a tenth well north and west
of the NYC metro. All winter advisories remain in effect with no
changes in timing. Highs will top out in the mid 30s to around
40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the departing offshore low Thursday night, a cold
frontal passage will follow late as low pressure passes to the
north across eastern Canada. Skies will also be clearing with
temperatures remaining on the warm side in the lower to mid
30s. In fact, most locations will not drop below freezing until
Friday night. Any refreezing will be limited across far
interior locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period remains active with the upper flow nearly
zonal and as a series of shortwaves and weak, low amplitude,
trough move through the flow. Guidance remains in good agreement
with the system for Saturday night into Sunday, and fairly
similar to the previous forecast, and probabilities have been
increased to near 100%. With cold air in place a wintry mix of
snow, freezing rain, and rain is expected. However, there is
some uncertainty with the track of the low, and trends have been
slightly farther to the north. With a more northern track plain
rain will be possible across metropolitan New York City and
across Long Island. Temperatures are non diurnal Saturday night
as the low tracks near the region, and the system`s warm front
nears coastal Long Island. A longer period of freezing rain will
be possible inland, and possibly closer to the coast, if the
warm front remains farther to the south. A cold airmass moves in
with building high pressure, and temperatures will be several
degrees below normal. With the cold airmass in place, and a
series of waves of low pressure tracking along a stationary
frontal boundary to the south, will bring the potential for a
prolonged period of snow late Monday night into Wednesday. There
is a lot of uncertainty with the track of these lows which will
impact how far north precipitation will extend and whether or
not a mix will be possible along the coast. With this
uncertainty have used the deterministic NBM for temperatures
and precipitation types Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure approaches late tonight, and comes nearby and
through towards the late morning and early afternoon. The low
pushes off the New England coast Thursday evening.

VFR for most of tonight, with sub VFR developing towards the start
of the morning push. Expect MVFR cigs with -SN by 9-11Z. IFR follows
shortly thereafter by 12-13Z. Snow transitions to sleet and/or
freezing rain around 13-15Z. Have chosen PROB30s for FZRA at KJFK
and KLGA, with the higher probability of FZRA for the more western
and northern terminals. Transition to plain rain takes place for the
city terminals from 15-16Z, but should stay freezing rain at KSWF
for some time afterwards. Precip to end as DZ towards 18-20Z with
LIFR now expected. LIFR should hold into a portion of the evening
push with fog at some terminals, except for KSWF where improvement
happens sooner.

Light and variable winds for a good portion of tonight. Winds pick
up to around 5-10 kts from the E/SE late in the overnight into the
morning. For the afternoon as the low begins to get further east the
winds briefly go ENE at most terminals, then shift to WSW late in
the day and for early Thursday evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be possible by early in the morning for the timing of
category changes and the onset of snow Thursday morning and for p-
type timing changes.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: sub VFR early, becoming VFR.

Friday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Saturday: Chance of snow with IFR cond in the afternoon. Snow
changing to a wintry mix expected at night.

Sunday: Precip should change over to all rain by daybreak Sunday
except for KSWF. MVFR to IFR at times. Becoming VFR as precip ends
during Sunday afternoon.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the area moves offshore overnight as a
frontal system approaches from the west. SE winds strengthen
after midnight with the potential for winds briefly closing in
on 25 kt for a few hours. Wind then diminish as weak low
pressure form close to the waters and heads east in the
afternoon. West winds strengthen Thursday night with gusts
increasing to 20 to 25 kt. A building southerly swell brings 5
ft seas into the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Thursday
afternoon and across the remaining ocean zones at night. Thus, a
SCA has been issued for all oceans waters, beginning Thursday
afternoon on the eastern waters and then the remaining ocean
waters at night.

Strong west to northwest flow, in the wake of a cold front, is
expected Friday with SCA conditions on all waters. With high
pressure quickly building in late Friday into Friday night gusts
fall below advisory levels on all the waters Friday evening,
with ocean seas elevated into late Friday night. Sub SCA
conditions will be on all the waters toward Saturday morning and
through the day Saturday as high pressure builds overhead. With
another low pressure system quickly approaching Saturday night
small craft conditions become likely on the ocean waters with an
increasing southerly flow, and continue through Sunday as the
low moves through the region. Small craft gusts will be marginal
on the Long Island Sound late Sunday. Ocean seas remain
elevated at SCA levels into Sunday night, and subside below by
Monday morning in a diminishing northwest flow as high pressure
builds. Monday sub SCA conditions are expected across all the
forecast waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ067>071.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday for
     NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW