932
FXUS61 KOKX 221820
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
120 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure retrogrades northwest of the area today then will
linger nearby through Friday night. The surface low heads into
eastern Canada by Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds in from
the west Sunday and Monday. A fast moving, weaker low pressure
system then skirts to the north of the area late Monday into
Tuesday, before high pressure briefly builds back in on Wednesday.
Another low pressure system then potentially impacts the area on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stacked upper low retrograding SW/S across the
Catskills/Poconos today will slide se of the region this this
evening/tonight. Cold pool instability and cold conveyor belt
wrapping around the low with persist light to moderate
precipitation banding across areas N&W of NYC into this
evening, with an additional 1/4 to 3/4" of QPF. For areas above
750 ft, and particularly 1000 ft elevation across LoHud and NE
NJ, precip will fall as snow as temps hold at freezing with an
additional few inches of accumulation likely thru evening. Below
500 ft wet snow or rain/snow mix will result in little to no
accumulation with temps generally just above freezing. Winter
weather advisory has been extended through 10pm to address the
elevation dependent snow accumulation across Orange and W
Passaic thru this evening.

Only plain rain expected for NYC/NJ metro and coastal plain
through tonight, more showery in nature during the day, with a
more banded rain this evening into the overnight as the low
tracks east. With a bit of elevated instability an isolated
tstm, heavy downpours possible across LI/S CT this evening
overnight as higher theta-e/ weakly unstable airmass gets
advected in from off the ocean.

Otherwise, gusty S/SW winds to 25 to 35 mph will gradually
subside late this afternoon thru evening.

Late tonight, the stacked/occluding low will move southeast of
the area, with precipitation gradually tapering from w to e
overnight.

Cloud cover is expected to remain today into tonight due to
proximity of the low. Temperatures will reach the low-50s this
afternoon across eastern areas, while staying in the upper-30s in
the western interior, closer to the center of low pressure. Tonight,
lows drop in the lower-to-upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering rainfall in the area will quickly taper west to east
across the area Saturday morning as a stacked low continues to exit
towards the New England coast. This low will then move towards the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday night and remain there on Sunday. At
the same time, heights aloft will gradually rise from a ridge to our
west while surface pressure increases.

The main concern during this period is more gusty winds. As the low
exits and high pressure starts to move in, the weekend could remain
breezy through the weekend with NW winds on Saturday turning W on
Sunday. Through the weekend, gusts could reach up to 30 mph for
eastern portions of the area, peaking closer to 25 mph in western
areas.

The weekend will be partly cloudy on Saturday, leaning closer to
mostly sunny by Sunday. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper-40s
to low-50s. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper-40s to mid-50s.
Lows Saturday night will be in the mid-30s to low-40s. Sunday night
will be notably cooler with lows near or just below freezing in
interior areas, while coastal areas will drop into the
mid/upper-30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid and upper ridging builds in from the Central Plains on Monday
with another upper low ejecting out of the Central Plains midweek.

Monday looks dry and more seasonable temperature-wise, in the upper
40s to low 50s. Precipitation chances, rain at this point, looks to
enter the picture late Monday into Tuesday as a weak low pressure
system and associated fronts traverse New England. With increased
southwest flow on Tuesday, highs may be a bit above seasonable, with
upper 50s for most. After a dry and cooler day Wednesday a more
organized low pressure system approaches the area on Thanksgiving
from the southwest. Too early for sensible weather specifics this
far out with timing and strength differences, with GEFS sfc low
positioning anywhere from the Gulf coast to eastern PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will drift across eastern PA into early this
evening, then weaken and pass just south of Long Island tonight.
A stronger low will then develop east of New England later
tonight into Saturday.

With the low passing nearby, cond will be highly variable across
the area:

At the NYC metros, rain that was mainly just to the west at
midday will drift back eastward across the area, with MVFR cigs.
Do expect cigs to lower to IFR tonight at KEWR/KTEB/KLGA as
winds diminish and become variable as the weakening low passes
just south. Late tonight winds shift N with passage of the low
and then NW by daybreak, increasing through the morning to
20-25G30-35kt by afternoon, with MVFR cigs continuing until
around midday Sat.

At KSWF, Light snow with IFR cond should continue into the
evening, with precip ending and cond improving to MVFR after
midnight and then VFR by midday Sat. WNW winds G20-25kt develop
after 12Z, increasing to G30kt by afternoon.

East of the NYC metros, SW flow 15G20-25kt and mainly MVFR cond
should also continue, with showers redeveloping this evening.
Winds shift N by about 07Z-08Z and then NW by 11Z-12Z, gusting
to 25-30 kt after 15Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected this afternoon. Wind direction this
evening uncertain especially from 01Z-06Z as low pressure
passes just south.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday afternoon: BKN VFR cigs. NW winds 20-25 kt with
G30-35kt.

Saturday night: VFR. WNW winds 15-20G25kt.

Sunday: VFR. WNW winds 15-20 kt with G25-30kt, diminishing at
night.

Monday...VFR.

Monday night: Chance of showers/MVFR after midnight.

Tuesday: Chance of showers/MVFR early, otherwise VFR. W winds
G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale conditions coming down to SCA this afternoon, with ocean
seas gradually lowering late today into tonight, still within
SCA criteria.

Winds briefly fall below SCA criteria this evening into
tonight, before ramping up once again Saturday morning. Gale
conditions likely develop on the ocean Saturday afternoon and
continue into Sat Night, with marginal gale conditions for
nearshore waters.

Winds and waves remain elevated across the ocean waters into
Sunday. Potential for near Gale force gusts through Sunday.
Thereafter, high pressure builds in from the west with
decreasing winds and seas into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional QPF between 0.25" and 0.75" through tonight. There
are no hydrologic concerns with this additional rainfall.

No hydrologic impacts are expected this weekend through the middle
of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ067.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/BR
NEAR TERM...BR/NV
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DBR/BR
HYDROLOGY...DBR/BR