411
FXUS61 KOKX 040544
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
144 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in Friday then centers over the area Friday
night. The high passes offshore Saturday through Sunday while still
remaining in control. Lows to our north and south kick high pressure
far out to sea by Sunday night. A cold front approaches from
the Great Lakes on Monday, passing slowly across the area
Tuesday or even stalling in close proximity into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*Ideal conditions are expected for Independence Day celebrations.

As a cold front continues to push offshore high pressure will build
in from the Great Lakes today, centering itself over the area
tonight. At the same time, an upper-level trough will push offshore
in response to a ridge building in from the west.

Overall, dry and sunny weather is expected today. We could not have
asked for better weather for any Independence Day festivities and
activities you may may have planned. The cold front has left us a
little cooler this morning with some outlying areas dropping in the
upper-50s. Highs this afternoon will be in the low to mid-80s. This
evening`s temperatures will drop back into the 70s under clear
skies. Perfect for any planned outdoor celebrations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will push offshore by Saturday morning but remain in
control through Sunday. Simultaneously, an upper-level ridge
will continue to build and center itself over the area through
this same time period.

With sunny, dry conditions expected through the weekend from
widespread subsidence, warmer temperatures will naturally follow in
July. Highs Saturday will be in the mid/upper-80s followed by Sunday
in the upper-80s to low-90s. Increased low level winds from a LLJ
should lead to breezy conditions on Sunday into early Sunday night.

Given the flow will be southerly, this may also aid in warmer
temperatures and higher dewpoints on Sunday. Dewpoints Saturday
in the upper-50s to low-60s increase into the mid/upper-60s on
Sunday. This will make things feel a little muggier out on
Sunday.

Surface lows far to our north and south Sunday night along with a
flattening ridge aloft will kick surface high pressure out to the
east. Despite this, nothing passes close enough to kick off any sort
of precipitation, so expecting conditions to remain dry through
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The NBM was followed with no changes.

Key Points:

*  A cold front approaches the region on Monday and moves across the
   area on Tuesday. The front eventually stalls south of the
   forecast area during the middle of the week.

*  Expect a period of unsettled weather with a chance of showers and
   thunderstorms each day.

Monday appears to the the warmest day of the week with highs in the
80s and lower 90s. Highs for the remainder of the long term will be
in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds into the region through the TAF
period.

VFR. Light and variable winds through about 12-13z. Winds become NW
and increase this morning, becoming around 10 kt in the afternoon,
with gusts toward 20 kt possible. Winds become light once again
Friday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional on Friday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night through Saturday night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. SSW gusts up to 20 kt possible Sunday afternoon.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters Friday through
Saturday night. Near-SCA gusts are expected on Sunday with seas
on ocean waters climbing to 4 ft Sunday night.

Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Monday and
Tuesday. SCA conditions may return for the middle to end of next
week with seas building to 5 ft or greater.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts anticipated through the middle
of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A lingering southerly swell of 2-3 ft 6-7s will produce mainly a
low rip current risk on Friday, except for a moderate risk for
the beaches from Smith Point to Montauk Point. A low rip current
risk is expected for all beaches on Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR
HYDROLOGY...BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...