733
FXUS61 KOKX 082358
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
758 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend. The
high will then slowly weaken as a frontal system approaches mid
to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An elongated E-W high pressure ridge extending through the Mid
Atlantic and Northeastern states to S of Nova Scotia will
remain in control. Expect mostly clear skies with good
radiational cooling as SE winds 5-10 mph become light NE.
Low temps should not be too much different from those of last
night, ranging from the lower 60s invof NYC and along the
immediate coast, to the 50s elsewhere. Some patchy river valley
fog may be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With the sfc high remaining in control and heights slowly
rising, expect another mostly sunny day with temps Sat/Sat night
a little warmer than those of Fri/Fri night, with highs mostly
in the lower/mid 80, and lows from the mid/upper 60s invof NYC
to the mid 50s well inland and across the Long Island Pine
Barrens. Another night of onshore flow (SE-S) may promote more
patchy fog development outside of the urban corridor late Sat
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not much change in the forecast with a high amplitude ridge
(+2-3SD) in place across the eastern third of the country at
the onset of the period. The ridge is bookended by an upper low
east of New England and a trough over the Central and Northern
Plains. It will gradually break down through the period between
the two with the westerlies sending a cold front through late
Thursday into Friday.

Expect mainly dry conditions with increasing heat and humidity
through mid week. Often, the NBM can be too high with dew points
and over the last couple of days it has adjusted dew points
slightly downward for next week. This likely due to its bias
correction, especially from recent performance. Regardless,
there still remains a chance for heat indices to meet heat
advisory criteria, specifically for the criteria of two
consecutive day at 95 to 99. However, the areal coverage has
been decreasing. Temperatures during this time will average 5-10
degrees above normal.

A late day shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly NW of NYC
Wednesday-Friday afternoons/evenings. Highs will generally be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the Atlantic facing
beaches with lows in the 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period with high pressure remaining in control.

S/SE winds less than 10kt this evening will become light and
variable overnight. Wash, rinse, repeat for Saturday with light
ENE winds to start in the morning, then  becoming SE at 10 kt
or less from late morning into the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night - Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the middle of next
week. Winds will generally remain weak through the period. NHC
continues to monitor an area east of the Carolinas for potential
tropical cyclone development. The probability of development
remains low (see NHC website). Model consensus takes this low
well east of the waters. Expect an easterly swell during this
time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Easterly swells will gradually subside some over the weekend,
possibly lowering enough for the rip current risk to go from
moderate on Saturday to low on Sunday (at least for some
locations).

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...