984
FXUS61 KOKX 050807
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
407 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front pushes in early today, then stalls over/near the area
until a cold front pushes in Sunday morning. The cold front stall
nearby to the south Sunday afternoon. A wave of low pressure tracks
through along the stalled boundary Sunday night and exits east
Monday. A secondary cold front moves through late Monday night into early
Tuesday. High pressure builds for mid week before pushing offshore
Thursday. A frontal system may approach late on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak low pressure system in the Ohio River Valley tracks into
southern Ontario today into early tonight before exiting into
northeast Canada early Sunday. This low pressure system brings a
warm front through the area this morning into this afternoon. The
warm front is expected to stall over the area or just to the north.

The warm front will lead to increased moisture and a source of lift
for showers throughout the day. Most of these showers will occur
mid/late morning into early evening, tracking mainly west to east
and are expected to be scattered to numerous in coverage.

As the stalled front lingers, another round of showers are expected
Sunday night. 00Z CAMs are in agreement, introducing increased
instability late this evening into tonight. Some thunderstorms are
possible. Given the enhanced nature of thunderstorms and available
moisture, could see a brief moderate to heavy downpour, but not
expecting any flooding issues given the quick progression of the
system. Total QPF today into tonight looks to be around 0.5", but
could see isolated higher totals closer to 1-1.5" in any
thunderstorms tonight.

00Z CAMs also agree on fog advecting in over Long Island and
possibly into coastal locations along the LI Sound and NJ coast
tonight.

High temperatures today should reach the low-50s in the afternoon,
with lows tonight not too far off in the low to upper-40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will push in Sunday morning ending most shower activity
in the morning and clearing out the fog. It appears most available
guidance agree on the cold front being weak and stalling nearby,
over the area or just to the south. This means isolated to spotty
showers are still possible on Sunday.

A wave of low pressure will track along the stalled front and over
the region Sunday night. Showers will be numerous to widespread with
this system aided by PWATs peaking around 1.75", positive vorticity
advection from a deepening longwave trough over the Great Lakes, and
being located within the upper-level divergent right entrance
region of a jet streak to our north. Temperatures should be warm
enough for mainly liquid precip, but its possible some snow
could mix in in the far interior late Sunday night into early
Monday morning, if temperatures are able to drop low enough.

This wave of low pressure will exit Monday morning. Isolated to
spotty showers may still occur on Monday, but not much rain is
expected as we lay between, but far enough away, a developing
surface low along a shortwave to the south and another surface low
to the northwest embedded at the base of a longwave trough.

Temperatures on Sunday should warm to the mid/upper-50s prior
to the cold front. Sunday night will be cold with lows in the
low-40s to low-30s. Monday follows suit with highs in the
mid/upper-40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A secondary cold front moving through late Monday night into early
Tuesday will usher in a cold airmass for the middle of the week,
with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal Tuesday through
Wednesday night. Temperatures return to more seasonal levels for
Thursday and Friday. The coldest night will be Tuesday night with
freezing temperatures expected across the region, which has trended
slightly colder since Friday.
Frost/freeze headlines will be possible for Tuesday night with the
growing season having begun in the New York City metro area. There
will be a chance of showers with the passage of the cold front
Monday night into Tuesday, and then much of the week will be dry as
high pressure builds in, and moves offshore late Thursday. Mainly
followed the deterministic NBM guidance, except for winds and gusts
Tuesday, going toward the 75th percentile as gusty west to northwest
winds are likely during the day with strong cold advection. The next
chance of precipitation will be late next week into the weekend as a
frontal system may impact the region as an upper and surface low
approach. A blocking pattern sets up with the trough over the east
coast, and the upper low closing off, and unsettled weather may
remain through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore overnight as a warm front approaches
from the south through today. The warm front become nearly
stationary in the vicinity tonight.

VFR overnight with light rain at times. Conditions lower after
daybreak, lowering initially to MVFR with light rain, and then by
early afternoon to IFR, and toward late afternoon into the evening
LIFR, with rain continuing.

Winds will be light NE becoming E overnight, and then SE and
increasing to around 15 kt toward daybreak. Gusts 20-25 kt are
possible inland but will be more occasional and did not include in
the forecast, except at KISP with higher confidence there.
SE/E winds diminish late afternoon, and likely become light and
variable at all the terminals this evening. Low confidence in the
wind direction and speeds late afternoon into Saturday night and
will be affected by the timing and location of the warm front.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence on the timing of lowering conditions this
morning into the evening, and could be several hours off from
TAF as conditions and timing will be dependent on the warm
front.

This evening, with stratus and fog, LIFR is likely.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late tonight: IFR to LIFR in rain and fog. There is a slight chance
of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Potential for fog across Long Island and Southeast CT early
in the morning. Chance of rain showers. MVFR, IFR possible, in the
morning, then improving to VFR.

Monday: Rain showers mainly early with MVFR possible. Otherwise
mainly VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of rain showers in the morning for the
terminals east of New York City. W-NW wind gusts near 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds may exceed 25 kt on ocean waters mid-morning today into this
evening from a passing warm front. A SCA is in place on ocean waters
for this. Winds tonight will be below SCA criteria, but waves may
not be. Waves will build to 5 ft on ocean waters, but will last
longer on eastern ocean waters into tonight. SCAs are timed for
this.

Sunday into Monday, SCA criteria will not be met on most waters
except ocean waters where 5 ft waves remain a possibility.

Ocean seas remain elevated at SCA levels Monday night with the non
ocean waters below advisory. Then during the day Tuesday northwest
wind gusts increase to SCA levels across the forecast waters in the
wake of a secondary cold front. Winds and seas remain at SCA levels
into Tuesday evening, and then begin to subside west to east as high
pressure builds into the waters, falling below advisory levels on
the non ocean waters by late Tuesday night. Ocean seas east of
Moriches Inlet may remain at SCA levels into Wednesday morning. Sub
advisory conditions return by midday Wednesday, and remain below
into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET