534
FXUS61 KOKX 240835
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
435 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control today. A cold front sags south
through the region Wednesday, continuing to slowly work south
into the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday where it will become
nearly stationary into Friday. The front will then return north as
a warm front on Saturday. A weak surface trough or frontal
boundary will linger close to the area into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early season heat wave continues across the region today and
could rival June records.

Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for most of the CWA until
8 PM this evening, with the exception of eastern Suffolk on
Long Island and coastal New London in Connecticut where a Heat
Advisory is in place with slightly lower temperatures.

An impressive ridge continues to amplify over the Eastern US,
with H500 progged around 595dm locally. Surface high pressure
centered off to the south will allow a light WNW or NW flow
through the day.

After the very warm and muggy start, with any early morning
mist or fog quickly eroding, expect a quick jump in temperatures
with abundant sunshine under a high cirrus veil. Though air
temperatures are forecast to be several degrees higher than
Monday, deeper mixing noted in soundings should allow surface
dew pts to drop into the afternoon as the flow increases a bit.
Still, with temperatures into the upper 90s and lower 100s,
even dew pts into the mid 60s will yield heat indices near or
over 105, especially earlier in the afternoon.

Daily record highs are forecast at all six local climate sites,
with monthly June records possible at a few. See "Climate"
section further down for details.

Expect little relief overnight once again, especially in NYC
and urban NE NJ. Lows here only fall back into the lower 80s,
with 70s elsewhere. Dry conditions persist through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Sprawling ridging aloft begins to weaken and suppress south
Wednesday. At the surface, weak cold front approaches from the
north, sagging south into the region thru the day.

Likely the last day of the heat wave as temperatures at H850
fall from the lower 20s on Tuesday into the upper teens, and
likewise expect a bit lower surface temperatures from the
previous day. Afternoon highs generally low to mid 90s, but dew
pts near 70 should allow heat indices to approach 100F and a
heat headline will likely be needed for much of the region once
again.

The approach of the cold front will introduce the potential for
convective activity, and have increased PoPs into chance (25 to
40 percent) accordingly with hi res CAMs coming into range
depicting isolated to scattered development by the afternoon.
SPC currently has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
outlined for the area. PWATs climb to over 2 inches, and could
allow for locally heavy downpours with any of this activity.
Chances for rain could persist into the overnight depending on
the placement of the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key points

* Heat wave breaks Thursday into start of the weekend. Humidity
  levels will be a little lower.

* A more unsettled weather pattern expected Thursday through
  Saturday.

The last 24h have seem some changes with the positioning of a
frontal boundary that will drop south of the area on Thursday as a
cold front, becoming nearly stationary through Friday before
returning north as a warm front on Saturday. A confluent upper flow
between the northern and southern branches of the polar jet will
allow high pressure across eastern Canada to expand into the
Northeast on Thursday. This will give the front the needed southward
push. Overall, the front has trended a bit farther south into the
Mid Atlantic states. There are also differences as the front lifts
north on Saturday and whether or not it lifts through the area. The
GFS has trended toward keeping the front just south and west of the
area before working to the east with a frontal wave on Sunday. The
NBM still reflects the warm front working north on Saturday with its
winds, but has trended later. This uncertainty is also reflected in
the temperatures. NBM is continuing to show a large range between
the 25th and 75th percentiles for high temperatures, especially on
Saturday. KEWR for Saturday showing a range of 79 to 93 with the
deterministic forecast skewed toward the lowed end, and the 50th
percentile skewed toward the warmer end. For the time, continue to
stay the course with NBM deterministic for highs and lows.

The forecast area will also reside at the southern edge of the
westerlies during this time. The magnitude of any shortwave energy
will largely determine the position of the boundary and the extend
and location of any showers and thunderstorms. The forecast
maintains chances (20-50%) throughout the period, but it is too
early to be specific with the timing. In addition, for Thursday and
Friday the area will be in an easterly flow as high pressure
retreats east of northern the New England coast and Canadian
Maritimes. This will likely keep the area in a more stable regime
and limit the extent and magnitude of any convection. Weak warm
advection and frontal forcing will likely be the triggers through
this time. High PW air will be in place, so if any convection can be
initiated, there will be the potential for bouts of heavy rainfall
across the area. It will also remain humid with dew points in the
60s.

The NBM has trended cooler with daytime highs Thursday and Friday,
peaking at 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs both days will
generally be in the 70s. A warming trend then ensues Saturday into
Monday, warmest Monday with high in the 80s, and approaching 90
around the NYC metro and inland locations. Low temperatures are
showing less spread during this time, but also will go from near
normal Thursday and Friday, to above normal heading into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through tonight.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance for MVFR-
IFR visibilities from around 07-11z at KGON and KHPN.

Light and variable winds will become light WNW-NW after sunrise
Tuesday. SW sea breezes are likely at coastal CT terminals by mid
morning and KJFK and Long Island terminals by mid afternoon.
Otherwise, the flow will become WNW in the late morning/early
afternoon. Wind speeds should increase to around 10 kt. A few gusts
to 20 kt possible, especially where the flow remains W in the
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of SW sea breeze this afternoon at KJFK may be off by 1-3
hours. The wind direction could also vary more to the S with the sea
breeze.

Gusts this afternoon may be occasional at KEWR/KTEB/KLGA.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late
day and night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower mainly in showers, possibly a thunderstorm.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers, possibly a
thunderstorm. E wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria through the week.

There is a chance for 5 ft seas on the ocean waters, mainly
east of Fire Island Inlet late Friday into Saturday morning due
to a strengthening easterly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
could produce locally heavy times at times, leading to minor
nuisance flooding in low lying, poor drainage and urbanized
areas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is the potential for minor coastal flooding during the
nighttime high tide cycles this week. This is due to high
astronomical tides associated with a new moon on June 25. There
is little wind forcing at this time to produce much surge.

Shoreline areas that could have see minor coastal flooding
around the times of high tide include the South Shore Bays,
western LI Sound, and portions of the Lower NY Harbor.
Inundation of less than half a foot may be possible here.

For Wednesday night through Thursday night, winds become more
easterly, allowing for greater piling up of water. Surge model
guidance indicates a greater surge potentially here with more
sites exceeding minor coastal flood benchmarks. Stevens
indicates low possibility of reaching moderate coastal flooding
for some South Shore Bays but most of the guidance is within
minor level of coastal flooding. The Thursday night high tide
cycle looks to be the more problematic one where minor coastal
flooding could be more widespread, with advisory potential to
address this coastal flood potential.

There remains a moderate risk of rip currents along all ocean
beaches today with greater onshore flow around 10 kt and some
lingering onshore long period swell of 2 ft. Similar conditions
can be expected Wednesday, with a moderate risk once again.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Tuesday`s Record Highs (June 24):
EWR  97 / 1966
BDR  94 / 1966
NYC  96 / 1888
LGA  96 / 2013
JFK  97 / 2010
ISP  96 / 1966

Wednesday`s Record Highs (June 25):
EWR  100 / 1943
BDR  94  / 1952
NYC  99  / 1943, 1952
LGA  99  / 1943, 1952
JFK  98  / 1952
ISP  92  / 2003

June Monthly Record Highs
EWR  103 / 2021
BDR  97  / 2008
NYC  101 / 1934, 1966
LGA  101 / 1952, 2017
JFK  99  / 1949, 1952, 1959, 1964
ISP  96  / 1966, 1994

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ005>010.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ006>008-010>012.
     Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for CTZ011.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ011.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ012.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ067>075-176-178.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ078-080-
     177-179.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ078-
     080-177-179.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ079.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ081.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR/DW
CLIMATE...DR