824
FXUS61 KOKX 241121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Tranquil weather with slightly below normal temperatures and
lower humidity will continue into the weekend.

2) A frontal system will bring our next chance at unsettled weather
Monday night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure over the Northeast today will push offshore this
afternoon, providing continued dry conditions, slightly below
normal temperatures (up to 5 degrees below normal) and lower
humidity levels. With the weak pressure gradient the winds will
remain fairly light.

High pressure drifts northeast into the weekend as an upper
level trough from Canada approaches. Dry weather will continue.
Weekend high temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An amplifying trough sets up over the eastern US Saturday night.
A couple of low pressure systems will ride a frontal boundary
well offshore, with no impact to the area Monday morning.
Another shortwave approaches from Ontario on Monday, bringing a
frontal system and possibly a low pressure system through from
Monday night into Wednesday and possibly lingering into
Wednesday night. This frontal system will bring unsettled
weather with showers and thunderstorms expected. Exact impacts
and timing are still uncertain given differences in guidance at
that time range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure resides over the area throughout the TAF period.
VFR.

Light to calm winds become light out of the NE this morning, then shift
SE-S 10 kt or less in the afternoon. This should take until about 20Z
at KLGA as an ENE Sound breeze locks in. Winds go light and variable
tonight. E wind develops during Saturday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday through Monday morning: VFR.

Monday afternoon and night: MVFR cond likely. Chance of showers and
possibly a tstm from the NYC metros north/west.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond expected, with showers likely and chance
of tstms especially in the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure over the waters and remaining nearby into
the weekend, a prolonged stretch of sub advisory conditions
should take place through the weekend and to begin next week.
Marginal SCA conditions may return to the ocean waters
toward Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk should be moderate on Friday
and Saturday with a slight decrease in wave heights and swell,
and winds remaining fairly light.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JP