940
FXUS61 KOKX 141137
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
637 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually builds through tonight before pushing
offshore into Saturday. A warm front approaches late Saturday
and pushes through Saturday night, followed quickly by a cold front
Sunday morning. High pressure builds in from the west Monday into
Tuesday and settles nearby into Thursday. A warm front may arrive
late Thursday or Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An energetic WNW flow regime will continue to prevail over the area
through today. This results in breezy and seasonably cool
conditions. Mainly clear conditions to start will give way to an
increase in cloud cover into the afternoon. Temperatures for the
afternoon will range mainly from the middle and upper 40s to around
50.

For tonight any evening clouds should give way to primarily clear
skies. As high pressure builds from the southwest look for the
pressure gradient to relax resulting in a noticeably lighter NW flow.
This will allow some radiational cooling in spots. The winds may
stay up enough much of the night to preclude widespread frost, thus
went with patchy wording and thus no frost advisories at this time
with the growing season not yet officially over across the urban
portions of the area. It will be a cold night with lows in the
upper 20s across far northern portions of the area, to the 30s
across the city and the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A dry and calm start to the weekend as high pressure settles
directly overhead for Saturday morning. The high will then get
offshore during the afternoon as cloud increase from west to east in
advance of the next frontal system approaching from the west and
southwest. Much, if not all of the region remains dry through the
day with only a slight chance of late day rain showers across
western most portions of the area. Temperatures will moderate some
as it gets closer to normal with highs mainly in the lower and
middle 50s, with perhaps a few upper 40s across northern most
sections.

For Saturday evening rain should overspread the region quickly as
this next system is progressive and fast moving. Showers will break
out from west to east during the evening as the warm front works
through. A break in shower activity is likely with the passage of
the warm front. However, the cold front will quickly follow as it
approaches an moves through early Sunday morning. Thus two
pockets of rain are expected, one preceding the warm front, and
another preceding and along the cold front. Rainfall amounts will
be on the order of a tenth or two, to up to a half inch.

The cold front should swing through my mid morning, maybe as late as
the late morning across far eastern portions of the area. Clearing
takes place quickly immediately behind the front as a W wind picks
up and becomes rather gusty by midday and into the afternoon. A
blustery and cool day with temperatures close to or perhaps a couple
of degrees above normal. Winds are likely to gust to around 35 mph
during the afternoon. A low level strat-cumulus cloud deck is likely
to from for the afternoon resulting in sct to bkn cloud cover. The
winds won`t be as strong Sunday night, but will still gust at times
with a pressure gradient remaining in place with another low up into
the Labrador region of Canada and the region on the back side of the
low. There could very well be snow showers and snow squalls to the
NW with the low chance that a few snow showers or flurries could get
into far NW portions of the area Sunday night. Lows Sunday night
will be primarily in the 30s, and down at freezing for N and NW
interior locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key points:

* Breezy conditions are expected to begin the period on Monday,
  followed by the winds diminishing Monday night.

* Temperatures will be seasonably cool during the period.

Behind a cold frontal passage breezy conditions should continue
through much of the day Monday as low pressure deepens to our north
across SE Canada/Maritimes and high pressure builds to our west.

Winds should start diminishing Monday night as the high pressure
moves closer to the area. Mean upper troughing will persist aloft
through mid week. A shortwave and associated wave of low pressure
continues to be modeled to pass well to our south Tuesday into
Tuesday night. NBM indicates just a slight chance late
Tuesday/Tuesday evening for extreme southern portions of the
forecast area as the northern edge of the precipitation field grazes
those areas. Though most areas, even those that have a slight chance
for rain, will be mainly dry.

High pressure builds in at the surface from the west on Wednesday as
upper level ridging from the Great Lakes region approaches. Model
solutions differ with amplitude and actual location due to
differences in the location of the low over the Canadian Maritimes.
A warm front may then approach the area during Thursday or Thursday
night, bringing the next chance for precipitation. NBM was closely
followed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure exits north across the Canadian Maritimes today,
while high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest.

VFR. A few sprinkles or flurries could make their way into the
area late this afternoon/early evening, particularly for
terminals in the lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut,
but restrictions are not expected.

WNW-NW flow around 10 kt at coastal terminals and lower at
inland terminals to start the morning. Winds increase by 15Z to
10-15kt with G20-25kt, then falling off quickly in the evening,
veering more NW/NNW at night. Flow backs SW late Saturday
morning into early afternoon as speeds remain at or under 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts 20 to 25 kt possible this morning.

Timing of frequent gusts developing could be off 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR through the day, MVFR or lower at night w/ rain.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain to start, improving to VFR by the
afternoon. W winds 10-15 G20-25kt late morning/afternoon.

Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will linger through this morning and into the
afternoon on the ocean waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient
relaxes tonight and into Saturday morning with sub advisory
conditions returning to the ocean by late evening. With the high
settling directly over the waters look for tranquil conditions to
prevail Saturday with only 1 foot ocean seas. However, as high
pressure pushes east and a frontal system starts to move through
look for small craft conditions to develop quickly on the ocean, and
for all non-ocean waters by Sunday morning. Behind a cold front a
gusty WNW flow prevails with at least a period of gale force wind
gusts looking likely across the ocean and perhaps all waters for a
time Sunday afternoon and night. Small craft conditions are likely
to extend into much of Monday as well, with sub advisory conditions
likely to return some time on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JE/JP
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE