552
FXUS61 KOKX 111825
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast as weak high pressure builds in for
Friday. Low pressure develops south of the area Saturday night and
heads northeast Sunday. Strong high pressure then builds in for
early next week. A warm front will approach Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Gusty winds through tonight with a Wind Advisory in effect for
  eastern and coastal areas.

* Sharply colder tonight.

The pressure gradient over the areas remains strong as departing low
to the northeast continue to strengthen and weak high pressure
builds in from the southwest. Mid-level energy swinging into the
area into tonight will reinforce the strong CAA in the area. THis
should continue to allow for enhanced mixing of the BL and keep
gusty winds near the surface through much of the night. The pressure
gradient weakens some late tonight into early Friday morning so
gusts may begin to diminish by Friday morning.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the coastal and eastern areas
of the CWA for occasional to frequent gusts of 45-50 mph until 4AM.
This may need to be extended depending on if strong gusts persist
into Friday morning. Otherwise, cold conditions expected
tonight with temperatures in the teens for northern areas and low
20s along the coast. Wind chills will make it feel like the single
digits north and in the teens elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Cold continues Friday into Friday night, followed by temperature
  moderation into Saturday.

* Light snow becoming more likely late Saturday night as cold air
  arrives.

A ridge of high pressure shifts into the area on Friday with gusty
winds in the morning diminishing into the afternoon. Dry conditions
with mostly clear skies are expected, though temperatures will be
cold with highs in the 30s across the area. Cold temperatures
persist Friday night with winds relaxing quite a bit. Low
temperatures are expected to largely be in the 20s, though some
northern locations may fall into the teens. Any location that is
able to go calm may drop a few more degrees than forecast due to
radiational cooling under mostly clear skies.

Winds shift WSW on Saturday as a low pressure system passes to the
north. This will allow a moderating of the temperatures on Saturday
with highs in the low 40s expected along the coast. While much of
the day is expected to be dry, cloud cover will be increasing
through the day.

An upper trough deepens Saturday night over the Great Lakes. This
will force lift over much of the area late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning as a surface low pressure develops south of the area.
This lift should be realized in the form of widespread light
snowfall expected to begin to overspread the area after midnight
Saturday night. Depending on the temperatures along the immediate
south shore of Long Island, an initial rain/snow mix may develop but
expected to become all snow fairly quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

*  Weak low pressure in association with an Arctic boundary and
   upper level disturbance brings a period of snow for the
   southeastern portions of the forecast area Sunday morning.

*  A shot of unseasonably cold air will follow for Sunday through
   Monday night, with temps up to 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
   Temperatures should start to moderate late Tuesday into Tuesday
   night but will remain below normal.

Low pressure passes well north of the area Sunday morning, weakening
as it does so. At the same time, a fast moving vorticity max rounds
the base of the upper level trough over the Ohio and Tennessee River
Valleys and moves toward the forecast area. Additionally, and arctic
front moves through on Sunday. Cyclogenesis is also likely along the
front on Sunday well SE of New England after it passes through,
likely too late to have significant snow impacts. However, an
advisory level snowfall (2"-4") across NE NJ, NYC, and Long Island
snowfall is looking more likely Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The best chance of this looks to be for the more southeastern
portions of the area as they will be closer to the low. There remain
differences among global NWP (for example, the NAM gives portions of
Long Island Winter Storm Warning criteria of around 6", while the
GFS gives Long Island <1") so, NBM was followed closely.

After the passage of the cold front, colder and drier conditions
move in through Tuesday. It will also become blustery Sunday night
into Monday due to the tight pressure gradient between the
intensifying low as it heads northeast, away from the area, and high
pressure building from the west. The high should build over the area
on Tuesday and remain in control through the middle of next week.
The next chance for any precipitation looks to be Thursday with the
approaches from the southwest.

Temps will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Monday, with lows in
the teens and lower 20s (these could be lower, especially across
outlying areas, depending on amount of snowpack, cloud cover and
winds), and highs from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Wind chills late
Sunday night/early Monday morning could drop to the either side of
zero across a large portion of the region. Only slight moderation in
high temps (lower to middle 30s) expected for Tuesday, with less
wind chill impact as winds lighten.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong low pressure moves farther northeast of the region while
weak high pressure gradually builds in from the south and west
through the TAF period.

Gusty WNW flow is expected through the TAF period. Sustained
winds near 20-23 kt through this afternoon, and then more in
the 15-20 kt range this evening before lowering more to 15 kt
overnight. For wind gusts, those will range mainly between 30
and 35 kt through this afternoon with peak gusts 35-39 kt. Some
terminals expected to get occasional peaks of 40-42 kt gusts,
particularly those more eastern terminals, KLGA, KJFK, KHPN,
KISP and CT terminals. Gusts decrease closer to 30-35 kt for
mid to late this evening, then around 25 kt overnight into
early Friday.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts could occasionally be a few kts higher or lower than
indicated in TAF.

Occasional peak gust up to 45 kt possible into early this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Rest of Friday: VFR. W-WNW wind gusts near 20 kt. Gusts subside
at night.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Snow moving in late Saturday night with
MVFR to IFR possible. WSW wind gusts near 15 kt during the day.

Sunday: MVFR to IFR, possibly lower at times, in any snow,
mainly early. Snow tapers off from west to east afternoon into
early evening. Improving conditions afternoon into evening with
VFR returning. NW winds G15-20kt. Some peak gusts up to 25 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G20-25kt. Gusts lower at night with
some gusts to 20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. W winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale conditions across the waters through tonight with WNW winds
in the wake of a cold front. Gales become more marginal late
tonight for the western waters. Gales should continue for the
eastern most waters through the entire night. As the winds decrease
look for gale conditions to go to small craft conditions for the
majority of the waters through the first half of the day Friday.
Marginal small craft conditions should linger across the eastern
ocean through Friday afternoon. Conditions continue to settle
down for Friday night into Saturday morning. Ocean seas increase
some Saturday night, but should remain just below small craft
criteria.

Gale force wind gusts are possible Sunday as low pressure develops
and intensifies along SE of Long Island. Seas should build to 5-9 ft
on the ocean, and around 5 ft on the central/eastern sound.

Winds diminish, but remain at or above 25 kt for much of Monday,
falling below SCA criteria Monday night. Waves on the ocean waters
will remain above 5 ft through Monday, with a bit of a lull early
Monday night before building again late Monday night. Waves on the
sound fall below 5 ft Monday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic impacts expected through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ071>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NJZ006.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-
     353.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ335-338-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW