575
FXUS61 KOKX 241957
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritime remains through Sunday, then
moves east and weakens Sunday night into Monday. High pressure
builds into the northeast Monday and Monday night through
Tuesday night. By midweek, high pressure moves offshore into the
Atlantic with a series of low pressure system moving through
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper trough over the northeast, with a closed upper low will
remain nearly stationary tonight through much of Sunday before
beginning to shift east and weaken late Sunday afternoon. Spokes of
energy rotate around the upper low. With the loss of daytime heating
early this evening scattered showers will dissipate.
Then with daytime heating and instability Sunday a few showers will
be possible once again.  With the cyclonic flow continuing into
Sunday, and a cool airmass over the region, daytime cloudiness
Sunday will increase, and temperatures will remain below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper closed low and trough over the northeast begins to move
eastward as an elongated trough remains over the region. A ridge
will be approaching to the west late Sunday night and heights will
begin to rise, and continue rising into Monday night as a broad flat
ridge builds toward the east coast. Surface high pressure also
builds toward the area and will be overhead late Monday and
Monday night. With slowly increasing subsidence not expecting
any showers to develop Monday. However, there may be a few well
inland, but not enough to have probabilities. Temperatures
modify Monday with a little more sunshine likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper levels exhibit a ridging pattern Tuesday through the middle of
next week. At the surface, the center of high pressure will be close
to the local region Tuesday. The high pressure area builds offshore
Tuesday night and continues to move farther offshore out into the
Atlantic Wednesday.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail Tuesday through much of
Tuesday night. Temperatures are forecast to rebound, reaching more
into the 70s for more areas on Tuesday with southerly flow and warm
air advection.

For the middle to late portion of next week, low pressure will be
approaching at the surface. Aloft, the ridge axis moves across
Wednesday and then moves east of the region Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, a strong cutoff low approaches and moves through the
Great Lakes. The cutoff low transitions to a strong trough and
approaches the local region Thursday through Friday. One strong
embedded shortwave moves across early Friday. The overall synoptic
pattern of trough over the Northeast remains heading into next
weekend.

At the surface, multiple areas of low pressure approach, one from
the Great Lakes and one from the mid-Atlantic. Both appear to be
rather weak in magnitude. For Thursday through Thursday night a
frontal system approaches the area. Associated cold front passes
east of the area Friday with another one to follow for next Saturday.

Rain returns to the forecast late Tuesday night for parts of
Northeast NJ but just a slight chance of rain showers. Chances for
showers remain in the forecast Wednesday through Saturday. With
models indicating some weak low level instability Thursday night and
Friday, also have a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Regarding temperatures, cooler days forecast Wednesday and Thursday
when there is forecast to be more onshore flow during the day. Range
of high temperatures forecast mid 60s to lower 70s for those days.
For Friday and Saturday, the forecast high temperatures those days
are well into the 70s with more westerly component to the surface
winds.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to slowly track over the Canadian
Maritimes through Sunday.

VFR. Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and early evening
could produce brief MVFR conditions.

W-WNW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Winds and gusts weaken
tonight, settling to around 10 kt or less overnight. Winds WNW-NW
winds Sunday increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated showers possible through early evening.

End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon-Night: VFR. NW winds gusts around 20 kt.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday-Thursday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Nearshore gusts across New York Harbor, the south shore bays,
and along the ocean waters, remain around 25 kt through early
this evening, and ocean seas east of Moriches Inlet were still
near 5 feet. So, will let the SCA expire at 22Z.

Otherwise, low pressure remains over the Canadian Maritime
tonight into Sunday, with gusty northwest winds once again
during Sunday. However, gusts Sunday are likely to be below 25
kt. There may be a few nearshore gusts near 25 kt, but will not
issue a SCA for Sunday. High pressure then builds toward the
waters through Monday night. Once wind gusts diminish below 25
kt by early this evening, winds and seas will remain below
advisory levels on all the forecast waters through Monday night.
Pressure gradient remains relatively weak Tuesday through
Thursday night, keeping below SCA conditions on the forecast
waters. Conditions are actually forecast to stay well below SCA
criteria much of the time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is potential for localized minor coastal flooding Sunday
into early next week with a new moon occurring Monday evening,
causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure for
minor coastal flooding.

There is a high risk of rip currents along local Atlantic beaches
through this evening due to elevated ocean seas up to 5 ft and
WNW flow near 15 kt with stronger gusts. Modeled rip current
probabilities yields highest threat from late morning into
early afternoon.

Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day Weekend:

The rip current risk for Sunday is moderate as winds and seas
gradually subside.

Rip current risk reduces to low for Memorial Day, as swells continue
to subside.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...